2004-2006 Election Fraud Analytics: Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

Updated: Jan. 4, 2008 by TruthIsAll

Part I is a comprehensive statistical analysis of the 2004 and 2006 elections. The raw data consists of state and national recorded votes, pre-election and exit polls, Census total votes cast and mortality. Analytical models were created to calculate the True Vote. The models are Excel-based and available for download. Users can enter their own assumptions and then view a “sensitivity analysis” of resulting state and national vote shares and margins. The scenarios are displayed in numeric tables and charts. Many examples are provided in this document.

 

This would all be unnecessary if the Recorded Vote accurately represented the True Vote. In 2000, Al Gore won by several million more than his recorded 540,000 vote margin. In 2004, John Kerry actually won by 8-10 million votes. In the 2006 midterms, a Democratic Tsunami gave them control of congress, but the landslide was denied; they did much better than the official results indicate. The Excel models all confirm massive documented evidence that the elections were severely compromised by a combination of uncounted and miscounted votes. And the True Vote does not include the disenfranchised, the great majority of whom are Democratic minority voters.

 

Bush had a 48.5% average approval rating on Election Day. The Nov.1, 2004 Election Model, based on the final state and 18 national pre-election polls, projected Kerry as the 51.8-48.2% winner of the two-party vote. His expected 337 electoral vote was calculated as the average of a 5000 election-trial Monte Carlo simulation.  The projection model was confirmed by the state and national exit polls.  Science works by assuming that the explanation that best fits the data is correct - and is tested against new data, which either strengthens those assumptions or causes them to be rejected in favor of a better explanation.

 

Edison-Mitofsky provided four state exit poll measures. Kerry won the first three; Bush won the Final:

1) WPE          51.8-47.2% (unadjusted)

2) GEO          51.0-48.5% (adjusted to incoming recorded votes)

3) Composite 50.3-49.1% (12:22am-adjusted to pre-election polls)

4) Final          48.5-51.1% (matched to recorded vote)

 

WPE is the only unadjusted (“pristine”) measure. It was based on the average discrepancy between the exit poll result and recorded vote for all state precincts which were polled. Measures (2) and (3) are adjusted estimates which incorporate pre-election polls and recorded votes. The final state exit polls were forced to match the recorded votes, therefore implying ZERO election fraud. Why should we believe them? And why bother doing exit polls at all if they will just assume that the recorded vote count was the True Vote?

 

Some say that exit polls are not designed to predict the True Vote but to provide a demographic snapshot of the electorate. But if that’s the case, and the recorded vote count is corrupted, then so are the demographics.

 

Kerry also had a steady 51-48% lead throughout the National Exit Poll timeline: at 4pm (8349 respondents); 7:30pm (11027); 12:22am (13047) - after the polls closed.  Of course, Bush won the Final NEP by 51-48% (13660 respondents) which was posted at 2pm the day after the election. The Final NEP was forced to match the Recorded Vote count with impossible weights and implausible vote shares, so why should we believe it?

 

 The Election Calculator and Interactive Election Simulation models determined that Kerry probably did 1-2% better than the exit polls indicate.

 

The  Election Calculator is an Excel model for analyzing 1988-2004 elections. Users can override the pre-set default assumptions for voter mortality, uncounted vote rates, prior election voter turnout and vote shares of prior and new voters. The base case scenario indicates that Kerry won by nearly 10 million votes with a 53.2-45.4% vote share.  Interested readers can download the model, review the base case scenario and then enter their own assumptions. Sensitivity analysis tables provide an instant view of vote shares over a range of input assumption scenarios.

 

The Interactive 2004 Election Simulation Model  (also Excel) enables users to run simulations based on state and national pre-election and exit polls. State exit poll vote shares are based on the following user options: 1) WPE, 2) Best GEO and 3) Composite (12:22am).  The National Exit poll data includes the 12:22am update and the 2pm Final.  The only pre-election model assumption is Kerry’s projected share of Undecided Voters. The only state exit poll inputs are the method (1, 2, or 3) and assumed cluster effect. A Monte Carlo simulation consisting of 200 election trials generates both the projected popular and expected electoral vote. The probability of Kerry winning the election is the percentage of trials in which Kerry received at least 270 EV. Additional model analysis includes National Exit Poll timeline, Gender vote, exit poll response optimizer, Census data and the Ohio exit poll.

 

In the 2006 midterms, a Democratic Tsunami gained 31 congressional seats. But they actually did much better than that. A regression trend analysis of 120 pre-election Generic polls (all won by the Democrats) projected they would win by 56-42% and gain over 40 seats. The 7pm National Exit Poll update (55 Dem-43% Rep) confirmed the pre-election trend. But the next day, the Final NEP was once again forced to match a corrupted vote count with implausible weights and vote shares. The Democratic margin was cut in half to 52-46%. The fraud resulted in the loss of 10-20 seats.

Part II contains the original “TruthIsAll FAQ” with my responses included. The author of the FAQ, Mark Lindeman, has tried to debunk the work of independent analysts who maintain that pre-election and exit polls are powerful statistical evidence that Kerry won handily and that the 2006 Democratic landslide was denied. Mark has posted on the Democratic Underground as "On the Other Hand", on Daily KOS as “Hudson Valley Mark” and numerous other forums.

The TruthIsAll.pdf contains Nov. 1 2004 Election Model reports, analysis, graphs, methodology, links. I have posted on Democratic Underground, Progressive Independent, Thom Hartmann, Mark C. Miller, Brad Blog, Buzz Flash, RFK Jr., Huffington Post, Democrats.com, Smirking Chimp…

 

Part I: Analytic Summary

 

(* indicates recent update)

 

Introduction

Summary Overview

The 2000 Election

Gore won by 3 million more votes than the 540,000 official total; Florida uncounted votes by county

Smoking Gun: The Final National Exit Poll

Voted in 2000 – preliminary, final, adjusted - sensitivity analysis

The Democratic Underground “Game” thread

Impossible/ feasible NEP weights, implausible vote shares, rBr -defection rates - false recall

 

State and National Pre-Election Polls

 

The 2004 Election Model: Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation

Final State polls- 18 National polls –undecided voters- EV win probabilities - sensitivity analysis

National Polling Trend

18 Final Polls – Correlation of monthly polls vs. Bush approval rating

State Polling Trend

Average- weighted average- monthly/weekly projections - Zogby battleground polls

 

State Exit Polls

 

State Pre-election Polls vs. Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote

State vs. NEP- Gender- Voted2k- True Vote Models

Interactive Election Simulation

WPE, GEO, Composite estimates

Monte Carlo Polling Simulation

Conservative Scenario Analysis *

True Vote Sensitivity analysis based on two factors: Nader 2000 and New voter share

Regional Analysis

Exit Poll MoE exceeded in 29 states for Bush

Red-shift vs. Swing

Battleground vs. Red states – Composite (12:22am) vs. WPE-adjusted exit polls

Exit Poll Response Optimization

Excel Solver – True Vote- 1250 precincts by partisanship, 5 location-size groups, states by partisanship

State Deviations by Voting Method

Deviations based on percentage voting machine/method mix applied to WPE-based Exit Poll discrepancies

 

National Exit Poll

 

Timeline

Demographic weights- vote shares- sensitivity analysis

Sensitivity Analysis

Effect of changes in demographic vote shares on Kerry’s national vote

New Voters

2000/2004 first-time and other new voters – 16m recorded Bush voter increase from 2000

True Vote Model

Base case - Bush vs. Gore 2000 voter turnout- sensitivity analysis - probabilities

 

Election Fraud Analysis

 

The Bush Urban Legend

Implausible urban and suburban vote shares

2000-2004 Exit Poll analysis (Voted in 2000; Location-size)

Bush Approval Ratings *

Correlation with monthly Pre-election polls; weights and vote shares adjusted to match the recorded vote

When Decided *

Weights and vote shares were adjusted to match the recorded vote

Party ID *

Weights and vote shares were adjusted to match the recorded vote

The Gender Demographic *

Implausible increase in Bush’s share of women voters from 2000 to 2004

Did Kerry Win More Than 360 Electoral Votes?

State adjustments: Gore 2000 uncounted votes, Kerry share of Nader and new voters

Uncounted and Switched Votes

True Vote Model- uncounted/ switched votes by state- electoral vote effect

Reconciling the Final 5 Million Vote Anomaly

Difference in vote share between the initial 117m and final 5m votes; exit poll vs. late vote correlation

 

True Vote Analysis: Models, Counties, Machines

 

County Vote Database (2000-2004)

Database filtering for absolute and percent changes by state, county, voting method 

 

Florida  *

Ohio *

New York

California

Oregon

 

Historical Election Analysis

 

Election Calculator: Prior and Current election total votes cast adjusted for voter mortality, turnout; NEP shares

True Vote: Prior election Recorded and Current election total votes cast adjusted for total mortality, turnout; NEP shares

Switched Vote:  Current election Recorded Vote adjusted for uncounted and switched vote rates

 

The 2006 Mid-terms

 

Summary Analysis

Quantifying the risk- likely fraud contests- Democratic Tsunami – Generic polls- projections

Generic 120-Poll Trend vs. 7:07pm and Final Exit Poll

Demographics- Linear Regression - NEP Timeline- probabilities

Uncounted and Switched Votes

CBS reported state votes-Wikipedia vote count

Generic 120-Poll Trend vs. Final 10 Poll Average

Allocating undecided voters- Final 10 polls- probabilities

 

Election Models (Excel)

 
The Math: Probability and Statistics 

 

 

 

Part II:  Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ

 

A TruthIsAll (TIA) FAQ (Mark Lindeman)

The Pre-Election Polls

The "Rules": Did They Favor Kerry?

Explaining the Exit Poll Discrepancies

Comparing 2004 to 2000

Miscellaneous

 

_____________________________________________________________________

Part I: Analytic Summary

Introduction

 

Dec.12, 2000 is a day that will live in infamy. Bush needed the help of five right-wing Republicans on the Supreme Court to stop the recount in Florida and enable him to steal the election. There has been an ongoing controversy regarding the 2004 election. State and national pre-election and exit polls pointed to a Kerry victory. Those who claim that Bush won fair and square are relentless in their attempts to thrash polling analyses which suggest that fraud occurred. Since the media will not release tell-tale precinct-level data, analysts must rely on publicly available polling data. And they have determined that the polls provide powerful statistical evidence of fraud.  “Voter fraud” has been shown to be a non-existent distraction from the evidence of massive “election fraud”. Voters don’t fix elections, corrupt officials do.  The corporate media was quick to dismiss the statistical polling analyses and claims of election fraud by “spreadsheet-wielding Internet bloggers” as another left-wing conspiracy theory.

 

This is what Richard Morin , a Washington Post staff writer, wrote on Thursday, November 4, 2004:

“An Election Day filled with unexpected twists ended with a familiar question: What went wrong with the network exit polls?... In two previous national elections, the exit polls had behaved badly. Premature calls by the networks in Florida led to a congressional investigation in 2000. Two years later, a computer meltdown resulted in no release of data on Election Day….  Results based on the first few rounds of interviewing are usually only approximations of the final vote. Printouts warn that estimates of each candidate's support are unreliable and not for on-air use.….That is why the early leaks anger Joe Lenski of Edison Media Research, which conducted Tuesday's exit poll with Mitofsky International for the National Election Pool, a consortium of the major television networks and the Associated Press…. After the survey is completed and the votes are counted, the exit poll results are adjusted to reflect the actual vote, which in theory improves the accuracy of all the exit poll results, including the breakdown of the vote by age, gender and other characteristics”.

 

The media never considered the possibility that the votes may have been miscounted and that the exit polls were essentially correct. They just took it for granted that the vote count was accurate (i.e. the election was fraud-free). After all, isn’t that why the exit poll results are always adjusted to match the vote count? Of course, they never did an analysis which would have shown that the adjusted Final NEP weights were impossible and that the adjusted vote shares were implausible.  And they would have come to the same conclusion as the spreadsheet-wielding bloggers: the election was stolen.

 

A dwindling number of naysayers continue to argue that the exhaustive statistical analysis of 2004 pre-election and exit polls by a number of independent researchers does not provide convincing evidence that the election was stolen. Their “case” consists of faith-based theories, factual avoidance, misstatements and misrepresentations. And they cannot reconcile the many statistical anomalies which all point to massive fraud.  Some of their “explanations” include the following: Kerry voters were more likely to respond to exit pollsters; exit poll interviewers sought out Kerry voters; over 7% of returning Gore voters told the exit pollsters that they voted for Bush in 2000; pre-election and exit polls are not pure random samples; exit polls are not designed to detect fraud in the United States; early exit poll results overstated Kerry’s vote; women voted early and Republicans voted late; Gore voters defected to Bush at twice the rate that Bush voters defected to Kerry. None are supported by factual data and all have been refuted.

 

Uncounted Votes

In every election, millions of mostly Democratic votes are never counted – and are a significant contribution to the exit poll discrepancies. According to the 2000 Census, approximately 5 million votes were never counted. Since they were from heavily democratic minority districts, if Gore won 75% his true margin was close to 3 million votes - not the 540,000 recorded. And that does not include the very real possibility that a certain percentage of recorded Gore votes were switched to Bush.  The 2000 election was not even close, although the media would like us to believe it was. Only the 5-4 Supreme Court decision was close. Consider the Florida 2000 fiasco. Bush “won” by 537 “official” votes - before the recount was aborted. But 185,000 spoiled (under and over-punched) ballots were never counted.  Since approximately 65% of them were intended for Gore, he actually won the state by at least 60,000 votes.


According to the U.S. Census, 125.7 million votes were cast in 2004. The recorded vote was 122.3m and 3.4m were uncounted. The Census survey margin of error is 0.30%. Therefore there is a 97.5% probability that at least 125 million cast votes. According to detailed information provided by investigative reporter Greg Palast, 3.006m votes cast were never counted. They were comprised of 1.389m spoiled ballots, 1.091m provisional and .0.526m absentee. The 0.40 million (0.31%) discrepancy between the Census and Palast matches the Census MoE.

 

First-time Voters

They claimed that the vaunted 2004 Republican GOTV campaign brought Bush millions of new Christian fundamentalist votes. But they failed to note that since 1992, according to the National Exit Poll, the Democrats won first-time voters by a 14% average margin. Ruy Teixeira wrote about it in The Emerging Democratic Majority.   

 

Bush Approval

They dismissed the significance of the Bush 48.5% approval rating on Election Day. But historically, incumbents with approval below 50% lost re-election (Ford, Carter, Bush I) while incumbents above 50% won (Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton). The near-perfect 0.87 correlation  between Bush’s monthly approval rating and average national poll is further evidence. The correlation was confirmed when Kerry won the 12:22am National Exit Poll by 51-48%. The Final Exit Poll forced a bogus 53% Bush approval weighting to in order to match the vote count.

 

The Urban Legend

They can’t explain The Urban Legend myth: How did Bush gain vote share in heavily Democratic urban locations, yet lose share in highly Republican small towns and rural areas?  An analysis of the 2000 and 2004 NEP location-size demographic shows a 9% increase in the Bush share of the heavily Democratic urban vote and a 3% decline in share of the heavily Republican small town and rural voter. And how did he manage a 3% increase in the suburbs which has been trending Democratic in recent elections?

 

The Final 5 Million Votes

They can’t explain these anomalies in the recorded state vote shares: 1) the strong correlation between the state exit polls and late vote shares (Kerry led in both), 2) the small discrepancies between the exit polls and the late vote shares, and 3) the consistent pattern of a higher Kerry share of late votes compared to his initial  share. But it’s further evidence that the "pristine" exit polls were close to the true vote. Bush won 51.0% of the initial 117.28m votes; Kerry won 53.0% of the final 5.0m. Kerry exceeded his initial vote share in 38 states, including 15 of 19 in the battleground.  A false impression was created early that Bush was winning as the first reported votes came in from the East. But even as the recorded votes were being reported on TV, state and national exit polls showed that Kerry was winning the popular and electoral vote. The vote-rigging apparently ended before the final 5m were recorded; Bush had already “won” the electoral vote and held a 3.5m lead in the popular vote. After the final 5m votes were recorded, his “mandate” declined by 0.5m to the official total of 62.04-59.03m.

 

Weighted Average State Vote shares

They claimed that Bush led in the pre-election state and national polls. But they forgot to calculate the national vote as a weighted average (based on the voting population) of the state poll shares. State polling data shows that Kerry led the weighted average from July to Election Day except for a brief period in September. Bush led the unweighted average. Kerry also led the national pre-election polls. In both poll sets, before undecided voter allocation, Kerry led by less than 1% nationally. But he led by 3% in the battleground states.

 

Vote Share Projection and Electoral Vote Simulation

They disputed the fact that the Nov.1, 2004 Election Model  projections were accurate and that the final pre-election polls matched the exit polls. But assuming that Kerry captured 67-75% of the undecided vote, the pre-election state (Kerry 47.9 - Bush 46.9%) and national polls (Kerry 47.2 - Bush 46.9%) closely matched the 12:22am National Exit Poll (50.8 -48.2%). The state and national models projected Kerry as the winner by 51-48%, matching the 12:22am NEP and the weighted average state exit polls (51.8-47.2%).  The Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation (5000 election trials) forecast that Kerry would win 320-337 electoral votes, assuming that he captured 60-75% of the undecided vote. Pollsters Harris, Zogby and the National Exit Poll said he won the undecided vote by 60-75%. The pre-election projections were also confirmed by the state and national exit polls in the Interactive Election Simulation Model.

 

Undecided Voters

They rejected the evidence that late undecided voters virtually always break for the challenger. But world-class pollsters Zogby and Harris, who have a combined 60 years of experience, indicated that late polling showed that Kerry won 67-75% of undecided voters.  The National Exit Poll also reported that Kerry won a clear majority of undecided voters. This was not unusual; historical evidence indicates that undecided voters break for the challenger over 80% of the time - especially when the incumbent is unpopular. Bush had a 48.5% average approval rating on Election Day. The final Zogby polls in nine battleground states had Kerry leading by a 50-45% average. He was projected to win all nine by 53-46% - but won only five by 50-49%. The margin of error was exceeded in six of the nine states, a 1 in 52 million probability.

 

E-M Methods Statement

They declared that exit polls were not true random samples. But Edison-Mitofsky state in the notes to the National Exit Poll and in the NEP Methods Statement  that respondents were randomly-selected with a 1% overall margin of error. And the pre-election polls all provide a margin of error based on the number of respondents.

 

National Exit Poll Timeline

They forgot about the Law of Large Numbers.  Kerry led the National Exit Poll by 51-48% at 4pm (8349 respondents), 7:30pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047). But Bush won the 2pm Final NEP (13660) by 51-48% through the use of impossible weights and implausible vote shares which were required in order to match the recorded vote.

 

Matching the Exit Polls to the Recorded Vote

They dismissed the accuracy of the early exit polls. But it’s standard operating procedure that the final exit polls are always fixed to match the recorded vote even if it means using impossible weights and implausible vote shares. This implies that the recorded vote was fraud-free – not exactly a reality-based assumption. Preliminary state and national exit polls are “contaminated” when they are forced to match a corrupt vote count.

 

The Gender Vote

They need to explain how sharply increased his share of Democratic women voters while his share of Republican males declined? One would normally expect to see a positive correlation in the Demographic Trend between the two groups. But to  believe that Bush won by the 62-59m recorded vote, one must believe that his “mandate” was provided by women who in 2000 either a) did not vote, b) voted for Gore, or c) voted for Nader. According to the NEP, Kerry won New voters by 57-41%, Gore voters by 91-8% and Nader voters by 64-17%. So why should you believe it?

 

Democratic Bias

They noted a built-in Democratic bias in the exit polls. But they did not account for uncounted and switched votes. Exit polls overstate the recorded Democratic vote in every election. Part of the discrepancy is due to uncounted votes in heavily Democratic minority districts. In addition, solid documented evidence exists of direct vote-switching directly at DREs and on central tabulators where touch-screen, optical scanner, lever and punched card votes are counted. Republicans manufacture the voting machines which can easily be hacked.

 

Margin of Error

They said that the margin of error used in calculating the probabilities of the exit poll discrepancies was too low. But even assuming a 60% “cluster effect”, the probabilities were still near zero. The WPE-adjusted state exit polls discrepancies, even assuming a 30% cluster effect, exceeded the margin of error in 24 states for Bush. The Composite (12:22am) discrepancies exceeded the margin of error in 16 states - all in favor of Bush.  Not a single state deviated beyond the MoE for Kerry. Assuming a zero cluster effect, the probability that the MoE would be exceeded in 16 states by Bush is 1 in 19 trillion.  A probability sensitivity analysis  gave Kerry a 98% probability of winning a popular vote majority - assuming a 50% cluster effect.

 

Regions and Time Zones

They cannot explain why the margin of error was exceeded (using the average state WPE) in 29 states for Bush and in just one for Kerry.  All 21 Eastern Time Zone states red-shifted to Bush and 14 exceeded the MoE.  But the probability that the exit poll margin of error would be exceeded in 29 states is ZERO.

 

Red-shift vs. Blue-shift

They overlooked the fact that 41 states switched to Bush from the final pre-election polls to the recorded vote. But none of the 10 states which switched to Kerry was a battleground state. Forty-three states red-shifted to Bush from the 12:22am exit polls. Oregon was the only battleground state which shifted to Kerry – by less than one percent. It’s also the only state in which voting is done by mail. Was this all just a coincidence, a case of bad polling or an indication that fraud occurred? 

 

They neglected to ask why six of the eight states which deviated to Kerry from the exit polls were strong Bush states: TN (1.63), TX (1.65), SD (1.67), ND (2.51), KS (2.37) and MT (0.22). The exit poll discrepancies (shown in parenthesis) were all within the exit poll margin of error. But only two competitive states deviated to Kerry: OR (0.75) and HI (1.25).  Is it just a coincidence that Oregon is the only state which votes exclusively by mail (100% paper ballots), and that any discrepancy in that state would be small and could favor either Bush or Kerry? And is it just a coincidence that Hawaii was not exactly a critical state? 

 

They agreed that the vote-rich battleground states would decide the election. But was it just a coincidence that six deep-red states deviated to Kerry and not a single blue state? Or was it because Bushco did not want to explain a 50-state red-shift? Did they disregard the six states knowing that Kerry would not come close to winning them? Instead they focused on thwarting a nationwide blue-shift in competitive states. The beast was in the East, the rest were in the West.

 

Mortality

They suggested that up to one million more Gore 2000 voters died than Bush voters had a major impact on the Bush “mandate”. They cited Gore’s 51-47% advantage in the Final NEP for the 60+ age group and calculated a 1.15% annual voter mortality rate (4.60% over the four years between elections). Therefore, approximately 5m of the 110.8m who cast votes in 2000 died prior to Nov 2004. But Gore’s 51% share of 5m is 2.55m; the Bush 47% share is 2.35m; the 0.20m difference is inconsequential. The Election Calculator  showed Kerry winning by 10m votes with 53.5% of the popular vote.

 

Implausible Party ID Weights

They need to explain why the Party ID mix changed from a 3-5% Democratic edge over the last 4 elections to an even 37/37 split in the Final National Exit poll. The 12:22am NEP update had a Party ID mix of 38% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 27% Independents; corresponding Kerry vote shares were 91%, 7% and 52%. In the Final NEP (which was forced to match the recorded vote) the mix was changed to 37/37/26 with Kerry vote shares of 89%, 6% and 49%, respectively. The adjustments turned Kerry's 51-48% win into a 51-48% loss.  But the changes to the weights and vote shares left footprints which exposed the fraud. A Pew study shows that the Democrats have held a steady 4-5 point Party ID advantage in the four presidential elections since 1992. And the 1992-2004 Final National Exit polls indicate that the Democratic candidate won first-time voters by an average 14% margin.  It’s only logical to conclude that a solid majority of first-timers were Democrats. So why should we believe the net 3% red-shift in weights in the Final NEP?

 

Reluctant Bush Responders

They hypothesized that Bush voters were reluctant to respond to exit pollsters. But the rBr theory was contradicted by the 2004 Final Exit Poll. In the Final, Bush 2000 voters comprised 43% of the respondents, compared to 37% for Gore voters.  And rBr was also contradicted by a linear regression analysis:  exit poll non-response rates increased going from the strongest Bush states to the strongest Kerry states, which suggests that non-responders were Kerry voters. So they had to come up with another explanation. It was a perfect Hobson’s choice. If they believed the final Exit Poll (which Bush won by 51-48%), they would have to accept the weights which indicated that Bush voters were over-represented. But then they could not claim the rBr theory.

 

Mathematically Impossible Voted 2000 Weights

They claimed that it was standard operating procedure to re-weight the exit polls based on the recorded vote. But the Final NEP “Voted in 2000” weights (Bush 43/Gore 37%) were mathematically impossible. Bush 2000 voters could not have comprised 43% of the 122.3mm votes recorded in 2004, since 43% of 122.3 is 52.6mm and Bush only had 50.5mm votes in 2000. The 43/37 weights were irrelevant and misleading since they were mathematically impossible.  Furthermore, since approximately 1.8mm Bush 2000 voters died prior to the 2004 election, the maximum number who could have voted in 2004 was 48.7 million, even assuming an impossible 100% turnout. This physical, incontrovertible mathematical fact totally confounded the naysayers. And the longer they tried to refute the facts, the sillier they looked.

 

The Game

They finally agreed in the Democratic Underground Game thread that the Final NEP Bush/Gore weights were impossible and came up with a new set of feasible weights. But they had to compensate for the change to feasible weights in order to match the recorded vote by inflating the Bush vote shares to implausible levels. This was necessary even though the shares were previously inflated in the Final with impossible weights in order to match the recorded vote.  It was a feeble, last-ditch Hail Mary pass to justify the Bush “mandate”.  They had to deal with an inconvenient truth: the Final National Exit Poll inflated the Bush tally by more than 4 million votes. But even though the weights were mathematically impossible, the exit-pollsters had no choice but to use them hoping that no one would notice. And so they lost the “Game”. Their use of implausible vote shares meant that they could not come up with one believable Bush win scenario.

 

To match the recorded vote, they were forced to make the following implausible assumptions:

1)      14.6% of Gore 2000 voters defected to Bush.

The 12:22am NEP reported that 8% defected; it was changed to 10% in the 2pm Final.

The probability of a 6.6% discrepancy is ZERO.

2) Kerry won 52.9% of those who did not vote (DNV) in 2000.

The NEP reported a 57-41% spread; it was changed to 54-45% in the Final.
3) 7.2% of Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry.

The NEP reported that 10% defected; it was changed to 9% in the Final.

 

False Recall

They knew that every theory they had proposed to explain the exit poll discrepancies was refuted.  So they were forced to suggest “false recall” as a last-ditch explanation and cited a post-election NES 600-sample survey to account for the impossible Final 43/37% Bush/Gore weights. This was the basis for their claim that 14.6% of Gore 2000 voters defected to Bush in 2004. They implied that approximately 6.6% of Gore 2000 voters (8.6% higher than the 12:22am NEP defection rate) misrepresented their vote and told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush in 2000. The reason: a long-term bandwagon effect: Gore voters wanted to associate with the “winner”. 

 

But “false recall” is not a plausible explanation since a) Gore won by 540,000 votes, b) according to the pristine 12:22am NEP, Kerry captured 91% of Gore voters and 10% of Bush voters, c) Bush had a 48.5% approval rating on Election Day 2004, d) false recall is not applicable to pre-election polls and e) the pre-election polls matched the exit polls. Why would Gore voters want to be associated with Bush? Even if returning Gore voters lied about their vote in 2000, it’s irrelevant. What is relevant is a) their factual 2000 recorded Gore vote and b) that 91% said they just voted for Kerry. We use this factual data to compute feasible and plausible weights by adjusting the 2000 recorded vote for mortality and estimated 2004 turnout.  

 

They also need to explain how the “false recall” hypothesis applies to other demographics. In the 12:22am NEP, 13047respondents were asked who they just voted for: Kerry won the Gender demographic by 50.78-48.22%.  But only 3200 of the 13047 respondents were asked how they voted in 2000.  But Kerry won the other 10,000 respondents (who were not asked who they voted for) by 51-48%. This totally contradicts the “false recall” argument. Why would 10,000 respondents tell the exit pollsters that they just voted for Kerry if they wanted to be associated with Bush?

 

Model Assumptions

They maintain that the base case assumptions in the True Vote Model are not feasible and plausible. But the assumptions were based on feasible weights applied to plausible 12:22am NEP vote shares. The model determined that Kerry won by 66.1 - 58.4mm (52.6 - 46.4%). Applying the weights to the 2pm Final NEP (which used inflated Bush vote shares to match the vote count) Kerry was still the winner by 3.4 million (51.2 - 48.4%).  The True Vote Model input consists of the following: 1) feasible “Voted 2000” weights (ratio of Kerry, Bush, Nader/other and new voters). The 2000 recorded vote was reduced by 3.5% for mortality and 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2004; 2) 12:22am NEP vote shares; 3) 3.4mm uncounted votes: 125.7mm reported by the 2004 Census Bureau less 122.3mm recorded;  4)  2.6mm (75%) of the uncounted votes were for Kerry; historically, the majority of uncounted votes have been in Democratic minority districts. 

 

Switched Votes

The True Vote model also determined that 4.5m (6.8%) of Kerry’s true vote must have been switched to Bush. The simple formula is True Vote = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched. Kerry’s True Vote was 66.1m, his recorded vote 59.0m and 2.6m were uncounted. The model also concluded that Kerry won 336 electoral votes. This result matched the Nov.1 Election Model which used Monte Carlo Simulation to calculate Kerry’s expected electoral vote.

 

The Election Incident Reporting System (EIRS)

According to the 2004 EIRS, 86 of 88 touch screen vote switching incidents were from Kerry to Bush, a 1 in 79 sextillion probability.

 

Sixteen Million New Bush Voters

They failed to explain how Bush found 16m new voters (DNV2k) to reach 62m in 2004. He had 50.5m votes in 2000. But only 46m returned to vote in 2004.  Approximately 2m Bush voters died and an estimated 2.5m did not vote, assuming a 95% turnout. According to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, Bush won 41% of 26.3m new voters. The 19% discrepancy was 11 times the 1.72% margin of error. The probability of the discrepancy is ZERO.  It’s important to note that a solid majority of new voters were Democrats and Independents who gave Bush an approval rating much lower than his total 48.5% average on Election Day 2004.

 

They need to explain how Kerry lost the popular vote in 2004, even though he won a solid 57-41% share of new (DNV2k) voters. Of the DNV2k voters, Kerry won first-time voters by 55-43% and other new voters by 61-37%.  Gore won the popular vote in 2000 even though Bush captured new (DNV96) voters by 52-44%. But this is quite strange, especially since Gore won first-timers (52-43%) and Bush won others (71-26%). How could there have been such a wide discrepancy in vote share between first-timers and others? Did Bush really win 71% of other new voters?

 

2000 Voter Turnout Breakeven Scenarios

They belittled a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which indicated that Kerry won all plausible scenarios of voter turnout and new voter share. But assuming 12:22am NEP vote shares and 100% Bush 2000 voter turnout, Gore voter turnout had to be 73% for Bush to tie Kerry and 64% to match the recorded 62-59mm vote.  

 

Implausible Vote Shares

They need to explain these implausible changes in Bush NEP vote shares from 2000 to 2004:

-The Bush share of females increased by 4.2% while his share of males decreased by 0.2%

-His share of white females increased by 5.0% while his share of white males decreased by 0.9%

-His share of non-white females increased by 4.0% while his share of non-white males increased by only 0.76%

-His share of female independents increased by 1.8% while his share of male independents decreased by 5.6%

Didn’t females vote 54-45% for Kerry? Didn’t over 90% of blacks vote for him? Weren’t independents for Kerry by 52-44%? Why would independent males defect to Kerry at triple the rate that independent females defected to Bush? Didn’t Nader voters break 3-1 for Kerry?

 

Swing vs. Red-shift

They claimed that the raw exit poll data which have not been made public indicates that there was no tendency for Bush to do better in 2004 relative to 2000 (“swing”) than he did in the 2004 exit poll (“red-shift”).   They presented their analysis in a swing vs. red-shift scatter chart and concluded from the flat regression line that the exit poll discrepancies did not indicate fraud. But they did not consider the following factors: According to the 2004 National Exit Poll, Kerry won 71% of returning Nader voters compared to 21% for Bush.  A similar split would have increased Gore’s margin by 1.4mm.  Assuming that 75% of approximately 5 million uncounted votes were for Gore, his margin increases by another 2.5 million. When added to his recorded 540,000 vote margin, Gore’s adjusted margin becomes 4.5 million.  And that does not consider the effects of vote-switching.  We know a lot more about vote-switching than we did in 2000.  It’s very likely that Gore votes were switched to Bush.  But assuming zero vote-switching, Gore’s adjusted, true margin was close to 4.5 million:  2.5m uncounted + 1.4m Nader + 0.54m recorded.  They never normalized the 2-party state vote shares in calculating “swing”. Actual adjusted swing was 3.9%, recorded swing 2.0%; red-shift 4.1%.  An adjusted swing vs. red-shift  bar graph displays the deviations.  Another scatter chart shows that adjusted swing exceeded 4% in 18 states while red-shift exceeded 4% in only 4 states. The naysayer swing vs. red-shift argument is just another ruse meant to divert, confuse and mislead.

 

Ohio

They argued that the Final Ohio exit poll does not indicate fraud. But they ignored the massive documented evidence of uncounted and switched votes, apart from voter disenfranchisement. And two election workers were convicted of rigging the recount. Kerry won the 12:22am Ohio exit poll Gender demographic (1963 respondents) by 52.06-47.94% and the WPE-adjusted exit poll by 54.2-45.4%. But he lost the 2:06pm Final (2020 respondents) by 50.94-49.06%. In the Final, vote shares and weights were changed in favor of Bush to match the miscounted Ohio recorded vote.  This was just like the final 2pm NEP in which vote shares and weights were changed from the 12:22am update in order to match the miscounted National vote. Two models confirmed that Kerry won Ohio.  The first was based on 12:22am NEP vote shares with weights adjusted to the Ohio 2000 recorded vote. Kerry was the 51.74-48.26% winner, within 0.32% of the exit poll. The second was based on uncounted (3%) and switched vote (6.15%) assumptions applied to the recorded vote. Kerry was the 52.6-47.4% winner. An exhaustive statistical study of actual ballots in Ohio’s Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) indicated that 6.15% of Kerry’s votes were switched.

 

Using the original 12:22am Ohio exit poll weights for the following demographics, it would have been necessary to inflate the Bush vote shares to implausible levels to match the recorded vote.  So the weights were changed in favor of Bush to minimize the change:

First-time voters

Of the 14% who were first-time voters, 55% were for Kerry. Are we to believe that he won just 47% of the other 86%?

When Decided

Of the 21% who decided in the month prior to the election, 62% voted for Kerry. Are we to believe that he won just 45% of the 79% who decided earlier?  Did Bush lead by 10% in any of the early polls?

Party ID  

The weights changed from 38D/35R to 35D/40R, a 7.9% shift. With the original weights, Bush needed 17% of Democrats to match the recorded vote. He had 8%.

Ideology:

Liberal/Conservative weights changed from 21/32 to 19/34, a 9.5% shift. With the original weights, Bush needed 23% of Liberals to match the recorded vote. He had 13%.

Voted for Senate

Democratic/Republican weights changed from 43/57 to 36/64, a 16.3% shift. With the original weights, Bush needed 14% of those who voted for the Democratic candidate. He had 7%.

 

Florida

They ignored Florida’s implausible vote count by machine type and party registration.  In 2000, Bush supposedly “won” by 547 official votes. Given Gore’s 70% share of 180,000 uncounted under/over votes, Gore won by at least 60,000 votes. In 2004, Bush supposedly “won” by 52-47%, a 368,000 vote margin.  The final Zogby pre-election poll had Kerry winning by 50-47%.  Kerry led the WPE-adjusted exit poll by 50.9-48.3%.

 

Dan Rather's voting machine expose showed that  poor-quality paper used in punch card machines was a major cause of election fraud in heavily Democratic precincts, thus illustrating a previously unknown method used to hack mechanical voting machines, whether punch card or lever.

 

The Democrats had a 41- 37% registration advantage in Touch Screen (TS) counties and a 42-39% edge in Optical Scan (OS) counties.  Kerry won the TS counties (3.86mm votes) by 51-47%, but Bush won the OS counties (3.43mm votes) by a whopping 57-42%. Kerry’s low vote shares in the three most heavily populated (and Democratic) TS counties (Palm Beach, Broward, Dade) are highly suspect.  Florida voter registration by party is the same in TS and OS counties, so we aren’t comparing apples and oranges. The TS county vote share matched the 12:22am NEP to within 0.43% for Bush and 0.31% for Kerry.  The OS county share deviated by 9.0% for Bush (307,000 votes) while the Kerry discrepancy was -8.1% (278,000).  

 

Several models indicate that Kerry won Florida. The first was based on voting machine type (optical scanners and touch screens) and used 2004 NEP “Party ID” vote shares with party registration percentage weights. Kerry won by 50.7-47.7% (closely matching the exit poll) - a 221,000 vote margin. The second was based on uncounted (1%) and switched vote (6.9%) assumptions applied to the 2004 recorded vote. Kerry won by an identical 221,000 votes. In a third calculation based on 12:22am NEP vote shares with weights adjusted based on the Florida 2000 recorded vote, Kerry was a 52.6-46.7% winner. In a fourth calculation, based on uncounted (3%) and switched vote (7%) assumptions applied to the recorded vote, Kerry was a 51.3-48.2% winner. Assuming that Kerry won 70,000 of 96,000 Nader 2000 votes (based on his 71% NEP share), he had a built-in 100,000 vote advantage on Election Day … assuming all the votes would be counted.  Given a 1.0% margin of error, the probability is 1 in 12.7 trillion that Kerry's total TS county vote share would exceed his total Florida share by 4.2%.

 

New York

They cherry-picked the final NY pre-election poll in a feeble attempt to prove that the pre-election polls didn’t match the exits. Kerry won the final NY pre-election poll by 59-40%. The recorded vote was 58.5-40.2%. But they cannot explain how Kerry won 66% of the final 497,000 votes recorded. They claimed that the NY pre-election poll was correct and that the WPE-adjusted exit poll (Kerry 64.1- Bush 34.4- Other 1.5) was wrong.  The Exit Poll MoE is 2.6% for 1452 respondents (3.2% if a 30% cluster effect is assumed).

 

They claimed that the NY pre-election poll matched an accurate recorded vote. Their proof: Lever voting machines have a low 1% spoilage rate. But they cannot provide evidence that ALL the votes were counted accurately in ALL the precincts and they failed to consider absentee and provisional ballots. Historical evidence indicates that Lever machines are vulnerable to rigging. Dan Rather's voting machine expose was a clear example. In Florida 2000, poor-quality paper used in punch card machines was a major cause of election fraud in heavily Democratic precincts, thus illustrating a previously unknown method used to hack mechanical voting machines, whether punch card or lever.

 

There are four fundamental flaws in their argument.

 

The first flaw: they ignored the theoretical margin of error. It’s well-known that exit polls are more accurate than pre-election polls. There was a 5% discrepancy between Kerry's NY pre-election (59%) and exit poll (64%). The MoE is 4% for a typical 600-sample pre-election state poll, meaning there is a 95% probability that Kerry's True vote was in the 55-63% range. The 3.2%  NY exit poll MoE means there was a 95% chance that Kerry's True vote was in the 60.9-67.3% range. Therefore, a Kerry vote share in the 60.9-63.0% range would be within the MoE for both pre-election and exit polls. On the other hand, the weighted average of 51 state pre-election polls (adjusted for undecided voters) matched the National Exit Poll to within 1%. Once again, it’s the Law of Large Numbers taking effect.

 

The second flaw: they failed to consider the NY 2000 vote: Gore 60.5 - Bush 35.4 - Nader 4.1. But their argument implies that the 2004 recorded vote was fraud-free and that 100% of returning Nader 2000 voters defected to Bush - clearly an impossible scenario.  In fact, according to the 12:22am NEP, Kerry won Nader voters by 71-21%; 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry while just 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush. Adjusting the NEP weights based on the NY 2000 recorded vote and assuming the 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry won the adjusted exit poll by 60.8-Bush 38.1%.

 

The third flaw: they failed to consider that Kerry’s vote share was 10% higher in NY than nationally. Adjusting the NEP vote shares to plausible NY levels increased Kerry’s margin to 62.5-36.4%. The 1.6 - 2.0% discrepancy from the exit poll is well within the 2.6% margin of error. But that’s not all. The NY 2004 Election Calculator model assumptions were: 2% uncounted votes, Kerry won 93% of Gore voters, 10% of Bush voters and 60% of new (DNV2k) voters. A sensitivity analysis shows that if Kerry won  91-95% of returning NY Gore voters and 56-64% of DNV2k, his NY vote share ranges from 59.8 to 65.2%. 

 

The fourth flaw: they assumed zero fraud in believing that the recorded vote as the true vote. An analysis of the effects of uncounted and switched votes indicates that Kerry won by 63-36%. The assumptions were: 2% of total votes cast were uncounted (75% to Kerry) and 7% of Kerry’s votes were switched to Bush. The uncounted vote assumption is lower than the 2.74% national average (NY uses lever voting machines). The switched vote assumption reflects the national result based on the 12:22am National Exit Poll adjusted for feasible weights. Who is going to question the switching of votes, especially since Kerry won the state by 18%? But we have just shown that the true margin was close to 27%.

 

Exit Poll Response: Four matching models

Four independent mathematical methods applied to three distinct sets of precinct, national and location-size exit poll data each produced the identical result. The USCV simulation; 1250 precincts by partisanship; location-size; NEP Voted in 2000 were in near-perfect confirmation.

 

The Exit Poll Optimizer employed the Excel Solver algorithm to obtain a feasible solution for the 2-party vote (Kerry 52.15-Bush 47.85%). The data constraints included the recorded vote (Bush 51.24-Kerry 48.76%), response rates and within precinct error (WPE) categorized into five partisanship groupings: Strong Bush, Bush, Even, Kerry, Strong Kerry. 

 

The Optimizer confirmed the USCV simulation. Both models analyzed summary exit poll data for 1250 precincts supplied by Edison-Mitofsky and in so doing, debunked the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis. The Optimizer also exactly matched the 12:22am National Exit Poll “Voted in 2000” demographic two-party result: Kerry 52.15- Bush 47.85%. The identical result was obtained by running the Optimizer for five NEP location-size category groupings (Big Cities, Small Cities, Suburban, Small Towns and Rural, given the WPE for each category.

 

The 2006 Midterms

Except for the notorious 2006 FL-13 congressional race in which 18,000 mostly Democratic votes were mysteriously missing, the evidence of massive fraud in the midterm elections is hardly mentioned in the corporate media.  But a Pew 2006 Election Analysis  describes voting “anomalies” and computer “glitches” that occurred in virtually every state. The fraud probably cost the Democrats 10-20 congressional seats.

 

The 2006 National Exit Poll “How Voted in 2004” weights were changed from 47 Bush / 45 Kerry at 7pm on Election Day to 49/43 in the Final NEP at 1pm on the following day. Once again, just like in 2004, the exit pollsters had to match the vote count by expanding the weight spread from 2% to 6%! This had a major effect in cutting the Democratic margin in half - from 55-43% to 52-46%. As noted earlier, the 2004 12:22am NEP “How Voted in 2000” Bush/Gore 41/39 weights were changed to 43/37 in the 2pm Final, turning a 51-48% Kerry victory into a 51-48% loss.

 

If plausible 49 Kerry/ 46 Bush weights (based on the 2004 NEP) are used, the TRUE Democratic margin becomes 56.7-42.1%, exactly matching the 120 pre-election Generic Poll trend line. Was this just a coincidence or another confirmation that the pre-election polls matched the 7pm National Exit Poll? You decide.

 

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The 2000 Election: Starting Point of the Analysis

In every election, millions of votes are never counted. They represent a significant component of the exit poll discrepancies. According to the 2000 Census, 110.8m votes were cast but only 105.4m recorded, leaving 5.4m uncounted. Most were from heavily democratic minority districts. Assuming that 75% were Gore votes, his true margin was close to 3 million, not the 540,000 recorded. But that doesn’t include likely vote-switching to Bush on DREs and optical scanners.  And don’t forget the millions of disenfranchised Democrats who never even got to the voting booth.  Gore’s 540,000 “official” vote margin is a long-running media myth.

 

The 2000 election wasn’t even close, although the media would like us to believe it was. Only the 5-4 Supreme Court decision was close. Consider the Florida fiasco. Bush “won” by 537 “official” votes before the Supreme Court aborted the recount - and 175,010 spoiled (under-punched and over-punched) ballots were never counted.  Since approximately 75% were intended for Gore, he probably won Florida by more than 80,000 votes. The spoiled punched cards in Florida were just the tip of the national iceberg.

 
 
2000 Recorded (mil)                
Gore     Bush     Other    
51.00    50.46    3.96     
48.4%    47.9%    3.7%     
 
Exit Poll:
Gore     Bush    Other
49.4%    47.1%    3.5%
 
Election Calculator
Gore     Bush    Other
55.81    51.65   3.34 
50.4%    46.6%   3.0%
 
Assumptions:
Uncounted Votes                    
Gore     Bush     Other    
75%      20%      5%       
4.04     1.08     0.279    
 
1996 Annual Mortality                       
Total Voters 1.24%                 
Clinton share 50%         
                          
1996 Voter Turnout in 2000                          
Clinton 96%               
Dole     96%              
Perot    96%              
 
1996     
Voted    Recorded Unctd   Cast     Deaths   Alive
Clinton 47.40     6.54    53.94    2.60     51.34
Dole     39.20    1.75     40.94    2.10     38.84
Perot    9.676    0.44     10.11    0.50     9.61
                                            
Total    96.28    8.73     105.00   5.21     99.79
 
2000 Calculated (NEP vote shares)           
          Turnout Voted   Weight   Gore    Bush   Other
DNV           -   15.00   13.5%    52%      43%      5%
Clinton      96% 49.29    44.5%    82%      15%      3%
Dole         96% 37.29    33.7%    8%       91%      1%
Perot        96% 9.23     8.3%     50%      42%      8%
                                            
Total       95.80 110.8    100%     50.37%  46.62%  3.01%
                                   55.81   51.65   3.34 
 
 
 
Sensitivity Analysis 1                      
 
         Gore Share of New voters                   
         48.0%    50.0%    52.0%    54.0%    56.0%
Gore% 
Clinton  Gore National Vote Share
86%      51.6%    51.9%    52.1%    52.4%    52.7%
84%      50.7%    51.0%    51.3%    51.5%    51.8%
82%      49.8%    50.1%    50.4%    50.6%    50.9%
80%      48.9%    49.2%    49.5%    49.8%    50.0%
78%      48.0%    48.3%    48.6%    48.9%    49.1%
                                            
          Margin (mil)                      
86%      6.9      7.5      8.1      8.7      9.3 
84%      4.9      5.5      6.1      6.7      7.3 
82%      3.0      3.6      4.2      4.8      5.4 
80%      1.0      1.6      2.2      2.8      3.4 
78%      (1.0)    (0.4)    0.2      0.8      1.4 
 
 
Sensitivity Analysis 2                      
 
      Clinton Voter Turnout in 2000                          
         92.0%    94.0%    96.0%    98.0%    100.0%
Clinton% 
Unctd96  Gore National Vote Share
95%      50.9%    51.2%    51.5%    51.8%    52.1%
85%      50.4%    50.7%    50.9%    51.2%    51.5%
75%      49.8%    50.1%    50.4%    50.6%    50.9%
65%      49.3%    49.5%    49.8%    50.1%    50.4%
55%      48.7%    49.0%    49.3%    49.5%    49.8%
                                            
         Margin (mil)                       
95%      5.4      6.1      6.7      7.3      7.9 
85%      4.2      4.8      5.4      6.0      6.6 
75%      3.0      3.6      4.2      4.8      5.3 
65%      1.7      2.3      2.9      3.5      4.1 
55%      0.5      1.1      1.6      2.2      2.8 
 
______________________________________________________________
 
 
Florida 2000 Uncounted Votes by County
 

Bush was leading by 537 votes when the recount was aborted by the Supreme Court. A full count of 175,010 spoiled ballots indicated that Gore won Florida by a minimum of 80,000 votes.  Of the spoiled ballots, 54% were in black districts where Gore won 91% of the vote. Assuming the other 46% were evenly split between Gore and Bush, then a simple calculation shows that approximately 126,000 (72%) were Gore votes. In addition, thousands of Gore voters mistakenly voted for Buchanan in Palm Beach County, due to the infamous “Butterfly” ballot. Buchanan's vote share was 0.80% in PBC and 0.25% in the other counties.  

 

Final Recorded Vote

Gore      2,912,253
Bush      2,912,790  
Nader         97,488
Buchanan   17,021

Other          23,558
 Total     5,963,110

 
 
Recorded Vote                                                                                                  
 
County       Precincts    Total   Gore     Bush  Buchanan  Nader   Other      Gore     Bush  Buchanan  Nader 
Totals           5884     5963     2912     2913     17       97       24       48.83%   48.85%   0.29%         1.63%
                                                                                                
Alachua          53       86       47       34       0        3        1        55.2%    39.8%    0.3%         3.8%
Baker            8        8        2        6        0        0        0        29.3%    68.8%    0.9%         0.6%
Bay               47      59       19       39       0        1        0        32.1%    65.7%    0.4%         1.4%
Bradford         21       9        3        5        0        0        0        35.5%    62.4%    0.7%         1.0%
Brevard          177      218      97       115      1        4        1        44.6%    52.7%    0.3%         2.0%
 
Broward          618      573      387      177      1        7        2        67.4%    30.9%    0.1%         1.2%
Calhoun          13       5        2        3        0        0        0        41.7%    55.5%    1.7%         0.8%
Charlotte        63       67       30       35       0        1        0        44.3%    53.0%    0.3%         2.2%
Citrus           35       57       26       30       0        1        0        44.6%    52.0%    0.5%         2.4%
Clay              51      57       15       42       0        1        0        25.5%    72.8%    0.3%         1.0%
 
Collier          96       92       30       60       0        1        0        32.5%    65.6%    0.1%         1.5%
Columbia         31       19       7        11       0        0        0        38.1%    59.2%    0.5%         1.4%
Miami-Dade       614      625      329      290      1        5        1        52.6%    46.3%    0.1%         0.9%
DeSoto           15       8        3        4        0        0        0        42.5%    54.5%    0.5%         2.0%
Dixie            11       5        2        3        0        0        0        39.1%    57.8%    0.6%         1.6%
 
Duval            268      265      108      152      1        3        1        40.8%    57.5%    0.2%         1.0%
Escambia         108      117      41       73       1        2        0        35.1%    62.6%    0.4%         1.5%
Flagler          27       27       14       13       0        0        0        51.3%    46.5%    0.3%         1.6%
Franklin         8        5        2        2        0        0        0        44.1%    52.8%    0.7%         1.8%
Gadsden          16       15       10       5        0        0        0        66.1%    32.4%    0.3%         0.9%
 
Gilchrist        10       5        2        3        0        0        0        35.4%    61.2%    0.5%         1.8%
Glades           13       3        1        2        0        0        0        42.9%    54.7%    0.3%         1.7%
Gulf              14      6        2        4        0        0        0        39.0%    57.8%    1.2%         1.4%
Hamilton         8        4        2        2        0        0        0        43.4%    54.1%    0.6%         0.9%
Hardee           12       6        2        4        0        0        0        37.5%    60.4%    0.5%         1.2%
 
Hendry           22       8        3        5        0        0        0        39.8%    58.3%    0.3%         1.3%
Hernando         51       65       33       31       0        2        0        50.1%    47.0%    0.4%         2.3%
Highlands        28       35       14       20       0        1        0        40.3%    57.5%    0.4%         1.6%
Hillsboro        320      360      170      181      1        7        2        47.1%    50.2%    0.2%         2.1%
Holmes           16       7        2        5        0        0        0        29.4%    67.8%    1.0%         1.3%
 
Indian River     41       50       20       29       0        1        0        39.8%    57.7%    0.2%         1.9%
Jackson          27       16       7        9        0        0        0        42.1%    56.1%    0.6%         0.8%
Jefferson        13       6        3        2        0        0        0        53.9%    43.9%    0.5%         1.3%
Lafayette        5        3        1        2        0        0        0        31.5%    66.7%    0.4%         1.0%
Lake             86       89       37       50       0        1        0        41.3%    56.5%    0.3%         1.6%
 
Lee             150       184      74       106      0        4        1        39.9%    57.6%    0.2%         1.9%
Leon             95       103      61       39       0        2        0        59.6%    37.9%    0.3%         1.9%
Levy             21       13       5        7        0        0        0        42.4%    53.9%    0.5%         2.2%
Liberty          8        2        1        1        0        0        0        42.2%    54.6%    1.6%         0.8%
Madison          11       6        3        3        0        0        0        48.9%    49.3%    0.5%         0.9%
 
Manatee          135      110      49       58       0        2        0        44.6%    52.6%    0.2%         2.3%
Marion           96       103      45       55       1        2        1        43.4%    53.6%    0.5%         1.8%
Martin           40       62       27       34       0        1        0        42.9%    54.8%    0.2%         1.8%
Monroe           33       34       16       16       0        1        0        48.7%    47.4%    0.1%         3.2%
Nassau           21       24       7        16       0        0        0        29.2%    69.0%    0.4%         1.1%
 
Okaloosa         48       71       17       52       0        1        0        24.0%    73.7%    0.4%         1.4%
Okeechobee       18       10       5        5        0        0        0        46.6%    51.3%    0.4%         1.3%
Orange           232      280      140      135      0        4        1        50.1%    48.1%    0.0%         1.4%
Osceola          66       56       28       26       0        1        0        50.6%    47.1%    0.3%         1.3%
Palm Beach       531      433      270      153      3        6        2        62.3%    35.3%    0.8%         1.3%
 
Pasco            132      143      70       69       1        3        1        48.7%    48.0%    0.4%         2.4%
Pinellas         345      398      201      185      1        10       2        50.3%    46.4%    0.3%         2.5%
Polk              163     169      75       90       1        2        1        44.6%    53.6%    0.3%         1.2%
Putnam           50       26       12       13       0        0        0        46.2%    51.3%    0.6%         1.4%
St. Johns        57       61       20       40       0        1        0        32.1%    65.1%    0.4%         2.0%
 
St. Lucie        78       78       42       35       0        1        0        53.3%    44.5%    0.2%         1.8%
Santa Rosa       36       50       13       36       0        1        0        25.4%    72.1%    0.6%         1.4%
Sarasota         142      161      73       83       0        4        1        45.3%    51.6%    0.2%         2.5%
Seminole         133      138      59       76       0        2        1        43.0%    55.0%    0.1%         1.4%
Sumter           24       22       10       12       0        0        0        43.3%    54.5%    0.5%         1.4%
 
Suwannee         16       12       4        8        0        0        0        32.8%    64.4%    0.9%         1.4%
Taylor           14       7        3        4        0        0        0        38.9%    59.6%    0.4%         0.9%
Union            11       4        1        2        0        0        0        36.8%    61.0%    0.9%         0.9%
Volusia          172      184      97       82       0        3        1        53.0%    44.8%    0.3%         1.6%
Wakulla          12       9        4        5        0        0        0        44.7%    52.5%    0.5%         1.7%
 
Walton           33       18       6        12       0        0        0        30.8%    66.5%    0.7%         1.4%
Washington       15       8        3        5        0        0        0        34.9%    62.3%    1.1%         1.2%
 
 
Uncounted Votes (000):
             Votes Share
Gore     126.3   72.1%
Bush       45.0   25.7
Nader       2.6     1.5
Buchanan 0.5     0.3
Other       0.7     0.4
Total    175 (2.85% of 6138k)
 
                Unctd     Adj      Unctd%      Adjusted Count (total votes cast)       Adjusted Vote Share
County          Total     Total    Adj      Gore     Bush     Buch     Nader   Other    Gore     Bush 
Totals           175      6138     2.85%    3039     2958      18       100      23      49.51%   48.19%
                                                                                       
Alachua          0.33     86       0.38%    48       34        0.3      3.2      0.8     55.3%    39.8%
Baker            0.14     8        1.69%    2        6         0.1      0.1      0.0     30.1%    68.1%
Bay              0.66     59       1.11%    19       39        0.2      0.8      0.2     32.5%    65.3%
Bradford         0.73     9        7.80%    4        6         0.1      0.1      0.0     38.3%    59.6%
Brevard          1.03     219      0.47%    98       115       0.6      4.5      0.9     44.7%    52.6%
 
Broward          14.61    588      2.48%    397      181       0.8      7.3      1.7     67.5%    30.8%
Calhoun          0.08     5        1.49%    2        3         0.1      0.0      0.0     42.1%    55.1%
Charlotte        3.16     70       4.51%    32       36        0.2      1.5      0.2     45.6%    51.7%
Citrus           0.22     57       0.38%    26       30        0.3      1.4      0.3     44.7%    51.9%
Clay              0.15    58       0.27%    15       42        0.2      0.6      0.2     25.6%    72.6%
 
Collier          3.18     95       3.34%    32       61        0.1      1.4      0.3     33.8%    64.3%
Columbia         0.69     19       3.61%    8        11        0.1      0.3      0.2     39.3%    58.0%
Miami-Dade       28.60    654      4.37%    349      297       0.6      5.8      1.3     53.4%    45.4%
DeSoto           0.70     9        8.24%    4        4         0.0      0.2      0.0     45.0%    52.2%
Dixie            0.33     5        6.64%    2        3         0.0      0.1      0.0     41.3%    55.7%
 
Duval            26.91    292      9.23%    127      159       0.7      3.2      1.4     43.7%    54.5%
Escambia         4.37     121      3.61%    44       74        0.5      1.8      0.5     36.4%    61.3%
Flagler          0.06     27       0.23%    14       13        0.1      0.4      0.1     51.3%    46.5%
Franklin         0.42     5        8.28%    2        3         0.0      0.1      0.0     46.4%    50.6%
Gadsden          2.07     17       12.3%    11       5         0.0      0.2      0.1     66.8%    31.5%
 
Gilchrist        0.29     6        5.07%    2        3         0.0      0.1      0.1     37.3%    59.4%
Glades           0.37     4        9.98%    2        2         0.0      0.1      0.0     45.8%    51.8%
Gulf              0.41    7        6.27%    3        4         0.1      0.1      0.0     41.1%    55.8%
Hamilton         0.39     4        8.94%    2        2         0.0      0.0      0.0     46.0%    51.6%
Hardee           0.41     7        6.14%    3        4         0.0      0.1      0.0     39.7%    58.3%
 
Hendry           0.80     9        8.95%    4        5         0.0      0.1      0.0     42.7%    55.4%
Hernando         0.25     65       0.38%    33       31        0.2      1.5      0.2     50.1%    46.9%
Highlands        1.01     36       2.79%    15       20        0.1      0.6      0.1     41.2%    56.6%
Hillsboro        9.17     369      2.48%    176      183       0.9      7.6      1.7     47.7%    49.6%
Holmes           0.14     8        1.84%    2        5         0.1      0.1      0.0     30.2%    67.0%
 
Indian River     1.94     52       3.76%    21       29        0.1      1.0      0.2     41.1%    56.5%
Jackson          1.16     17       6.63%    8        9         0.1      0.2      0.1     44.1%    54.0%
Jefferson        0.57     6        9.22%    3        3         0.0      0.1      0.0     55.6%    42.2%
Lafayette        0.17     3        6.39%    1        2         0.0      0.0      0.0     34.1%    64.0%
Lake             3.61     92       3.92%    39       51        0.3      1.5      0.3     42.5%    55.2%
 
Lee              4.57     189      2.42%    77       107       0.3      3.7      0.8     40.7%    56.8%
Leon             0.18     103      0.18%    62       39        0.3      1.9      0.4     59.6%    37.9%
Levy             0.76     13       5.64%    6        7         0.1      0.3      0.1     44.1%    52.3%
Liberty          0.19     3        7.24%    1        1         0.0      0.0      0.0     44.4%    52.6%
Madison          0.48     7        7.23%    3        3         0.0      0.1      0.0     50.6%    47.6%
 
Manatee          1.41     112      1.26%    50       58        0.3      2.5      0.3     45.0%    52.2%
Marion           3.35     106      3.15%    47       56        0.6      1.9      0.8     44.3%    52.7%
Martin           0.61     63       0.97%    27       34        0.1      1.1      0.2     43.2%    54.5%
Monroe           0.18     34       0.53%    17       16        0.0      1.1      0.2     48.8%    47.3%
Nassau           1.58     25       6.28%    8        17        0.1      0.3      0.1     31.9%    66.3%
 
Okaloosa         0.77     71       1.07%    17       52        0.3      1.0      0.4     24.5%    73.2%
Okeechobee       0.86     11       8.01%    5        5         0.0      0.1      0.0     48.6%    49.3%
Orange           2.40     278      0.86%    142      135       0.0      3.9      1.1     50.3%    47.9%
Osceola          1.68     57       2.94%    29       27        0.1      0.8      0.4     51.3%    46.5%
Palm Beach       29.70    457      6.49%    291      161       3.5      6.0      1.6     62.9%    34.7%
 
Pasco            3.92     147      2.67%    72       70        0.6      3.5      0.6     49.4%    47.5%
Pinellas         8.49     407      2.09%    207      187       1.0      10.1     2.0     50.8%    46.0%
Polk             0.90     170      0.53%    76       91        0.5      2.1      0.5     44.7%    53.4%
Putnam           0.17     26       0.64%    12       13        0.1      0.4      0.1     46.3%    51.1%
St. Johns        3.24     64       5.06%    22       40        0.2      1.3      0.3     34.1%    63.1%
 
St. Lucie        0.34     78       0.43%    42       35        0.1      1.4      0.2     53.4%    44.4%
Santa Rosa       0.37     51       0.72%    13       36        0.3      0.7      0.2     25.8%    71.8%
Sarasota         0.56     162      0.35%    73       83        0.3      4.1      0.6     45.4%    51.5%
Seminole         0.65     138      0.47%    60       76        0.2      2.0      0.6     43.1%    54.8%
Sumter           0.76     23       3.31%    10       12        0.1      0.3      0.1     44.2%    53.5%
 
Suwannee         0.73     13       5.56%    5        8         0.1      0.2      0.1     34.9%    62.2%
Taylor           0.60     7        8.09%    3        4         0.0      0.1      0.0     41.6%    56.8%
Union            0.26     4        6.32%    2        2         0.0      0.0      0.0     39.0%    58.8%
Volusia          0.50     184      0.27%    98       82        0.5      2.9      0.6     53.0%    44.8%
Wakulla          0.42     9        4.68%    4        5         0.0      0.2      0.0     46.0%    51.3%
 
Walton           0.22     19       1.18%    6        12        0.1      0.3      0.1     31.3%    66.0%
Washington       0.33     8        3.94%    3        5         0.1      0.1      0.0     36.4%    60.8%
 
 ______________________________________________________________
 
 
2000 Recorded State Vote
(in thousands)
 
State            Gore     Bush     Nader    Other    Total    Weight   
Total            51,004   50,460   2,883    1,070    105,417 100%              
 
Alabama           696     944      18       14       1,673    1.59%    
Alaska             79     167      29       10       286      0.27%    
Arizona           685     782      46       21       1,534    1.46%    
Arkansas          423     473      13       13       922      0.87%    
California       5,861    4,567    419      119      10,966   10.40%   
                                                                      
Colorado          738     884      91       28       1,741    1.65%    
Connecticut      816      561      64       18       1,460    1.38%    
Delaware          180     137      8        2        328      0.31%    
D. C.            172      18       11       1        202      0.19%    
Florida          2,912    2,913    97       41       5,963    5.66%    
                                                                      
Georgia         1,116     1,420    13       47       2,597    2.46%    
Hawaii            205     138      22       3        368      0.35%    
Idaho            139      337      12       14       502      0.48%    
Illinois        2,589     2,019    104      30       4,742    4.50%    
Indiana           902     1,246    19       33       2,199    2.09%    
                                                                      
Iowa             639      634      29       13       1,316    1.25%    
Kansas            399     622      36       15       1,072    1.02%    
Kentucky          639     872      23       10       1,544    1.46%    
Louisiana        792      928      20       25       1,766    1.67%    
Maine            320      287      37       8        652      0.62%    
                                                                      
Maryland          1,146   814      54       12       2,025    1.92%    
Massachusetts    1,616    879      174      34       2,703    2.56%    
Michigan          2,170   1,953    84       25       4,233    4.02%    
Minnesota        1,168    1,110    127      34       2,439    2.31%    
Mississippi      405      573      8        9        995      0.94%    
                                                                      
Missouri         1,111    1,190    39       20       2,360    2.24%    
Montana           137     240      24       9        411      0.39%    
Nebraska          232     434      25       7        697      0.66%    
Nevada            280     302      15       12       609      0.58%    
New Hampshire    266      274      22       7        569      0.54%    
                                                                      
New Jersey       1,789    1,284    95       20       3,187    3.02%    
New Mexico       287      286      21       4        599      0.57%    
New York          4,108   2,403    244      67       6,823    6.47%    
North Carol      1,258    1,631    0        22       2,911    2.76%    
North Dakota     95       175      9        9        288      0.27%    
                                                                      
Ohio             2,186    2,351    118      50       4,705    4.46%    
Oklahoma          474     744      0        16       1,234    1.17%    
Oregon            720     714      77       23       1,534    1.46%    
Pennsylvania     2,486    2,281    103      43       4,913    4.66%    
Rhode Island     250      131      25       4        409      0.39%    
                                                                      
South Carolina   566      786      20       11       1,384    1.31%    
South Dakota     119      191      0        7        316      0.30%    
Tennessee        982      1,062    20       13       2,076    1.97%    
Texas            2,434    3,800    138      36       6,408    6.08%    
Utah             203      515      36       17       771      0.73%    
                                                                      
Vermont           149     120      20       5        294      0.28%    
Virginia          1,217   1,437    59       25       2,739    2.60%    
Washington       1,248    1,109    103      29       2,489    2.36%    
West Virginia    295      336      11       5        648      0.61%    
Wisconsin        1,243    1,237    94       24       2,599    2.47%    
Wyoming           60      148      5        5        218      0.21%    
 
 
 
2000 Recorded Vote vs. Exit Poll
 
                  Recorded                             Exit Poll     2-party
State            Gore     Bush     Nader    Other    WPE      Gore     Gore
Total            48.38%   47.87%   2.73%    1.02%    -2.01    49.39%   51.31%
 
Alabama           41.6%   56.5%    1.1%     0.8%     -5.5     44.3%    45.2%
Alaska            27.7%   58.6%    10.1%    3.6%             27.7%    32.1%
Arizona           44.7%   51.0%    3.0%     1.4%             44.7%    46.7%
Arkansas          45.9%   51.3%    1.5%     1.4%     -3.2     47.5%    48.8%
California       53.4%    41.7%    3.8%     1.1%     -3.8     55.3%    58.2%
                                                                      
Colorado          42.4%   50.8%    5.3%     1.6%     -5.6     45.2%    48.5%
Connecticut      55.9%    38.4%    4.4%     1.2%     -0.9     56.4%    59.7%
Delaware          55.0%   41.9%    2.5%     0.6%     -7.1     58.5%    60.4%
D. C.            85.2%    9.0%     5.2%     0.7%             85.2%    90.5%
Florida           48.8%   48.8%    1.6%     0.7%     -0.6     49.1%    50.3%
                                                                      
Georgia           43.0%   54.7%    0.5%     1.8%     -5.6     45.8%    46.9%
Hawaii            55.8%   37.5%    5.9%     0.9%             55.8%    59.8%
Idaho            27.6%    67.2%    2.5%     2.7%     2.5      26.4%    27.8%
Illinois          54.6%   42.6%    2.2%     0.6%     -6.4     57.8%    59.5%
Indiana           41.0%   56.6%    0.8%     1.5%     -3.6     42.8%    43.8%
                                                                      
Iowa             48.5%    48.2%    2.2%     1.0%     3.0      47.0%    48.6%
Kansas            37.2%   58.0%    3.4%     1.4%     -4.4     39.4%    41.4%
Kentucky          41.4%   56.5%    1.5%     0.6%     4.4      39.2%    40.0%
Louisiana        44.9%    52.6%    1.2%     1.4%     -0.6     45.2%    46.4%
Maine            49.1%    44.0%    5.7%     1.2%     -2.1     50.1%    53.9%
                                                                      
Maryland          56.6%   40.2%    2.7%     0.6%     -4.3     58.7%    60.7%
Massachusetts     59.8%   32.5%    6.4%     1.3%     -4.3     62.0%    67.1%
Michigan          51.3%   46.1%    2.0%     0.6%     -2.2     52.4%    53.8%
Minnesota        47.9%    45.5%    5.2%     1.4%     0.5      47.7%    51.0%
Mississippi      40.7%    57.6%    0.8%     0.9%     -3.2     42.3%    43.0%
                                                                      
Missouri          47.1%   50.4%    1.6%     0.9%     1.8      46.2%    47.4%
Montana           33.4%   58.4%    5.9%     2.3%     3.2      31.8%    34.6%
Nebraska          33.3%   62.2%    3.5%     1.0%     -4.1     35.3%    37.0%
Nevada            46.0%   49.5%    2.5%     2.0%     -6.0     49.0%    51.3%
New Hampshire     46.8%   48.1%    3.9%     1.2%     -2.4     48.0%    50.6%
                                                                      
New Jersey       56.1%    40.3%    3.0%     0.6%     -0.4     56.3%    58.4%
New Mexico       47.9%    47.8%    3.6%     0.7%     5.1      45.4%    47.4%
New York          60.2%   35.2%    3.6%     1.0%     -3.3     61.9%    64.8%
North Carolina   43.2%    56.0%    0.0%     0.8%     -9.8     48.1%    48.5%
North Dakota     33.1%    60.7%    3.3%     3.0%     2.0      32.1%    34.2%
                                                                      
Ohio             46.5%    50.0%    2.5%     1.1%     -1.0     47.0%    48.7%
Oklahoma          38.4%   60.3%    0.0%     1.3%     4.7      36.1%    36.5%
Oregon            47.0%   46.5%    5.0%     1.5%             47.0%    50.2%
Pennsylvania     50.6%    46.4%    2.1%     0.9%     -0.8     51.0%    52.6%
Rhode Island     61.0%    31.9%    6.1%     1.0%     -0.4     61.2%    65.9%
                                                                      
South Carolina   40.9%    56.8%    1.5%     0.8%     -3.5     42.7%    43.6%
South Dakota     37.6%    60.3%    0.0%     2.1%     -0.9     38.0%    38.8%
Tennessee        47.3%    51.1%    1.0%     0.6%     2.2      46.2%    46.9%
Texas            38.0%    59.3%    2.2%     0.6%     -0.4     38.2%    39.2%
Utah             26.3%    66.8%    4.7%     2.2%     1.0      25.8%    27.7%
                                                                      
Vermont           50.6%   40.7%    6.9%     1.7%     0.4      50.4%    55.2%
Virginia          44.4%   52.5%    2.2%     0.9%     -2.0     45.4%    46.9%
Washington       50.1%    44.6%    4.1%     1.2%     -3.7     52.0%    54.9%
West Virginia    45.6%    51.9%    1.6%     0.8%     4.5      43.3%    44.5%
Wisconsin        47.8%    47.6%    3.6%     0.9%     2.4      46.6%    48.9%
Wyoming           27.7%   67.8%    2.1%     2.4%     -1.0     28.2%    29.5%
 
 
 
________________________________________________________________________________________

Smoking Gun: The Final National Exit Poll

The Final 2004 National Exit Poll (NEP) is the smoking gun of election fraud. The NEP has always been matched to the recorded vote on the assumption that it is accurate. But it is a fact that in every election millions of votes are cast but never counted and most of them (70-80%) are Democratic. Therefore, it is immediately obvious that the recorded vote did not reflect the true vote. Uncounted votes are a combination of spoiled, absentee and provisional ballots. Florida 2000 and Ohio 2004 are obvious examples.  In addition to these uncounted votes, we will show that millions of votes must have been switched from Kerry to Bush.

The Final NEP was forced to match the recorded vote by adjusting the “How Voted in 2000” weights to Bush 43/Gore 37%. The Bush 43% weighting is impossible since it implies that 52.59mm of the recorded 2004 total of 122.3mm voted for Bush in 2000. But this is 2.13mm more than his 50.46mm recorded vote. And it’s 3.9mm more than the 48.7mm Bush 2000 voters who were living in 2004. Furthermore, since some Bush 2000 voters did not vote in 2004, his true weighting had to be lower than 39.8%.

If we assume a 95% turnout (46.27mm) of Bush 2000 voters in 2004, the Bush weighting is reduced to a feasible 37.8% (46.27/122.3). Since impossible weights were required in order to match the recorded vote, the only logical conclusion is that the recorded vote must also have been impossible. The weights become Bush 37.0/Kerry 37.4% when they are calculated based on the Census 2004 total of 125.7 million votes cast (assuming a 95% turnout and 3.0% mortality rate).

 

Other (third-party) shares of both new (DNV2k) and Gore voters declined to near zero in the Final, reducing the vote from 1.2 to 0.50 million. The recorded third-party vote was 1.23mm (1.0%). This discrepancy accounts for the difference between the (62.0-59.0 million) recorded vote and the Final NEP (62.5-59.3).

 

Kerry won the 12:22am National Exit Poll (13047 respondents) by a 4.6mm vote margin.

Bush won the 2:04pm Final National Exit Poll  (13660 respondents) by a 3.2mm margin.

 

Final recorded vote count 

Kerry    Bush     Other
48.27%   50.73%   1.01%

59.03    62.04    1.23

 

 
National Exit Poll
 
            12:22am (13047 respondents)             2pm Final (13660 respondents)
 
Voted2k Weight    Kerry   Bush   Other      Weight    Kerry   Bush   Other
DNV2k    17%      57%      41%      2%       17%      54%      45%      1%
Gore     39%      91%      8%       1%       37%      90%      10%      0%
Bush     41%      10%      90%      0%       43%      9%       91%      0%
Other    3%       71%      21%      8%       3%       71%      21%      8%
                                                                               
Share 100%    51.41%   47.62%   0.97%     100%    48.48%   51.11%   0.41%
Votes 122.3   62.87    58.24    1.19      122.3   59.29    62.50    0.50
 
 
_________________________________________________________ 
 
Election Calculator Model
 
Assumptions:
1) 1222am NEP: (13047 respondents)
2) 2000 voter turnout in 2004: 95%
3) Census: 125.7m votes cast in 2004 vs. 122.3m recorded; 3.4m (2.74%) uncounted
4) Census: 110.8m votes cast in 2000 vs. 105.4m recorded; 5.4m (4.86%) uncounted
5) Annual voter mortality: 1.22% (4.88% over 4 years)
 
 
 
         2000 Recorded                               
Voted    Recd     Unctd    Cast     Died    Alive
Gore     51.00    4.04     55.04    2.72     52.32
Bush     50.46    1.08     51.53    2.48     49.06
Other    3.96     0.27     4.23     0.21     4.02
                                            
Total    105.42   5.38     110.8    5.41     105.39
                                            
                                   
         2004 Calculated                    
       Turnout   Voted   Weight   Kerry   Bush    Other
DNV      -        25.61   20.4%    57%      41%      2%
Gore     95%      49.70    39.5%    91%      8%       1%
Bush     95%      46.60    37.1%    10%      90%      0%
Other    95%      3.82     3.0%     64%      17%      19%
                                                    
Total   100.1    125.7    100%    53.23%   45.39%   1.38%
                                   66.94   57.07    1.74 
 
Input assumptions: impact on vote shares
 
                        2000 Voter Weights                                     
                        Gore      Bush   Turnout    Mort    Unctd      Kerry   
1- Final NEP            37%       43%      -       -        -        48.48%   
2- 1222am NEP           39%       41%      -        -        -        51.40%   
 
Election Calculation Model
3- 2000 Voter Turnout   39.6%      39.2%    95%      0%       0%       52.26%   
4- 2004 Unctd Votes     38.5%      38.1%    95%      0%       2.74%    52.39%   
5- 2000 Unctd Votes     41.6%      38.9%    95%      0%       4.86%    53.06%   
6- Voter Mortality      39.5%      37.1%    95%      4.88%     -       53.23%   
 
 

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

The Democratic Underground “Game” Thread

In order to match the recorded vote in the Final National Exit Poll ”How Voted in 2000” category, the exit pollsters had to: 1) use impossible Bush 43/ Gore 37 weights and 2) increase the Bush vote shares from the 12:22am NEP which Kerry won  by 51.4-47.6%.  Lindeman was challenged to provide a mathematically feasible and plausible Bush win scenario. It took him several months before he responded to the challenge in the famous Democratic Underground Game Thread

In order to comply with the rules of the “game” by using feasible weights, Mark presented a spreadsheet to hypothesize how Bush achieved his 3 million vote “mandate”.  He used feasible weights based on the recorded 2000 and 2004 vote, annual 0.87% mortality rate and estimated 95% turnout of 2000 voters.  But Mark inflated the Bush vote shares over the Final NEP shares in order to match the recorded vote. Although the weightings were feasible, the inflated vote shares were implausible. He had no choice but to increase the already-inflated Bush vote shares even further beyond the corresponding 12:22am NEP timeline.

Mark’s implausible Bush win scenario was based on the following assumptions:

1) One in 7 (14.63%) Gore 2000 voters defected to Bush in 2004.

    The 12:22am NEP reported 8% (10% in the 2pm Final).

 

2)  Kerry won just 52.90% of DNV (new voters and others who did not vote in 2000). 

     The NEP reported 57% (54% in the Final). 

 

3) Just 7.20% of Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry.

     The NEP reported 10% (9% in the Final).

 

On the other hand, the TIA True Vote model used feasible weights and plausible vote shares and calculated that Kerry won by a 52.6-46.4% - a 7.7 million vote landslide. The assumptions: 1)  Only Gore, Bush and Nader 2000 voters still living could vote in 2004 (it took a while for the naysayers to see this), 2) 12:22am NEP vote shares, 3) 0.87% annual mortality, 4) 95% turnout of Gore, Bush and other 2000 voters, 5) 125.74mm total votes cast (Census).  

 

The mortality rate and 2000 voter turnout assumptions have minimal effect on the national vote share. Kerry wins easily regardless of the assumptions used.  The 125.7mm Census estimate does not change the NEP vote shares, but it provides a more accurate estimate of the True Vote count than the 122.3mm recorded vote.

 
 
            TIA True Vote Model                        Lindeman “Game” Model
         Pct      Kerry    Bush     Other            Pct      Kerry    Bush     Other
DNV      21.49%   57%      41%      2%               21.72%   52.90%   46.50%   0.60%
Gore     38.23%   91%      8%       1%               37.84%   84.83%   14.63%   0.54%
Bush     37.83%   10%      90%      0%               37.44%   7.20%    92.31%   0.49%
Other    2.45%    71%      21%      8%               3.00%    65.90%   18.10%   16.00%
                                                                               
Share    100.00%  52.56%   46.43%   1.01%            100.00%  48.26%   50.74%   1.00%
                                                                               
                                                                               
         Votes    Kerry    Bush     Other            Votes    Kerry    Bush     Other
DNV      27.02    15.40    11.08    0.54             26.56    14.05    12.35    0.16
Gore     48.07    43.74    3.85     0.48             46.28    39.26    6.77     0.25
Bush     47.57    4.76     42.81    0.00             45.79    3.30     42.27    0.22
Other    3.08     2.19     0.65     0.25             3.67     2.42     0.66     0.59
                                                                               
Total    125.74   66.09    58.38    1.27             122.30   59.02    62.05    1.22
 

 

Which scenario are we to believe: the implausible 14.63% Gore defection rate or the mathematically impossible 43 Bush/ 37 Gore weights?  Was the exit poll match to the recorded vote based on a)  plausible 37.84 Gore/ 37.44% Bush weights and an implausible 14.63% Gore defection rate, or b) impossible NEP 43 Bush/ 37% Gore weights and a plausible (8-10%) Gore defection rate?

Lindeman had to replace the debunked reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis with “false recall”.  He cited a post-election NES 600-sample survey to account for the impossible Final Bush/Gore weights. He wanted to have it both ways: On the one hand, he said the 43/37 weights were legitimate exit poll samples in which Gore voters lied; on the other hand,  he contradicted his Bush win scenario by using feasible weights applied to the implausible 14.6% Gore defection rate.  But it was a very weak argument because it implied that approximately 6.6% of Gore voters (8.6% over the 12:22am NEP defection rate) misrepresented their vote when they told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush in 2000. The reason: a long-term bandwagon effect: Gore voters wanted to associate with the “winner”.

But “false recall” is not a plausible explanation since a) Gore won by 540,000 votes, b) according to the pristine 12:22am NEP, Kerry captured 91% of Gore voters and 10% of Bush voters, c) Bush had a 48.5% approval rating on Election Day, d) false recall is not applicable to pre-election polls and e) the pre-election polls matched the exit polls.

Why would Gore voters want to be associated with Bush? Even if returning Gore voters lied about their vote in 2000, it’s irrelevant. What is relevant is a) their factual 2000 recorded Gore vote and b) that 91% said they just voted for Kerry. We use this factual data to compute feasible and plausible weights by adjusting the 2000 recorded vote for mortality and estimated 2004 turnout.  

 

False recall cannot be used as an explanation to explain the other demographic weightings. In the 12:22am NEP, 13047respondents were asked who they just voted for – and Kerry won.  But only 3200 respondents were asked how they voted in 2000.  Kerry must have also won the 10,000 who were not asked how they voted in 2000. This fact alone totally contradicts the “false recall” argument. Why would respondents lie to the exit pollsters and claim to have voted for Kerry if they voted for Bush?  Did they also lie about their gender? Kerry won the Gender demographic by 50.78-48.22%.

 
GENDER     Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other
Male       46%      47%      52%      1%
Female     54%      54%      45%      1%
 
Share      100%     50.78%   48.22%   1.00%
Votes      122.3    62.10    58.97    1.22

 

What is relevant is who the exit poll respondents said they just voted for in 2004 - and 91% said Kerry. The 2000 and 2004 recorded vote and annual mortality rate are historical demographic facts. They are necessary and sufficient to determine the maximum number of Bush and Gore voters who could have voted in 2004. We already know the maximum: they are the Gore, Bush and Nader 2000 voters still alive to vote in 2004. But the maximum mathematically feasible weights must be reduced by 2000 voter turnout to obtain realistic, plausible weights.  The weights are multiplied by the corresponding individual exit poll vote shares to calculate the national share. Therefore, the only exit poll response which matters is the answer to the question: Who did you vote for in 2004? It follows that even if "false recall" were a factor, it is irrelevant. Voters did not falsely recall who they voted for just five minutes earlier. What would be their motivation to lie? Survey responses are confidential.

The probabilities of the Lindeman vote share deviations from the 12:22am NEP are near zero.

Voted    NEP   Share   Deviation    MoE     Probability
DNV2k    57%   52.90%   4.10%      1.72%    1 in 629,000
Gore     91%   84.83%   6.17%      0.99%    ZERO
Bush     10%    7.20%   2.80%      1.04%    1 in 15 million
 
DNV2k Probability Calculation
StDev   = sqrt (0.57 * 0.43/3200) = 0.0088
MoE     = 1.96 * StDev =   1.96 * 0.0088 = 1.72%
Z-score = Dev / StDev  =   .041 / 0.0088 = 4.67
 
Probability    = NORMDIST (Share, NEP, StDev, true)
Prob (DNV2k)   = NORMDIST (.529, .57, 0.0088, true) = 1 in 629,000
Prob (Gore)    = NORMDIST (.848, .91, 0.0051, true) = ZERO
Prob (Bush)    = NORMDIST (.720, .10, 0.0053, true) = 1 in 15 million
 

 

___________________________________________________________________________

 
 
Sensitivity Analysis I 
 
Weights based on adjusted 2000 recorded vote / 2004 recorded vote 
Adjusted 2000 recorded vote: reduce by 3.5% mortality; assume 95% turnout
 
Kerry wins by 52.6-46.4% (66.1-58.4 million).
 
Voted2k    Votes    Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other    
DNV        27.02    21.49%   57%      41%      2%       
Gore       48.08    38.23%   91%      8%       1%       
Bush       47.56    37.82%   10%      90%      0%       
Other      3.08     2.46%    71%      21%      8%       
                                                      
Share      Total    100.0%   52.56%   46.43%   1.0%     
Votes      125.74   125.74   66.09    58.38    1.27     
                                                      
 
                                                      Kerry Vote Share 
Gore               
for                DNV2k for Kerry                                     
Kerry      51.0%    52.0%    53.0%    54.0%    55.0%    56.0%    57.0%
 
85%        49.0%    49.2%    49.4%    49.6%    49.8%    50.1%    50.3%
86%        49.4%    49.6%    49.8%    50.0%    50.2%    50.4%    50.7%
87%        49.7%    50.0%    50.2%    50.4%    50.6%    50.8%    51.0%
88%        50.1%    50.3%    50.6%    50.8%    51.0%    51.2%    51.4%
89%        50.5%    50.7%    50.9%    51.2%    51.4%    51.6%    51.8%
90%        50.9%    51.1%    51.3%    51.5%    51.8%    52.0%    52.2%
91%        51.3%    51.5%    51.7%    51.9%    52.1%    52.3%    52.56%
                                                      
 
Gore               
for                Bush 2000 voters for Kerry                          
Kerry      7.0%     7.5%     8.0%     8.5%     9.0%     9.5%     10.0%
 
85%        49.1%    49.3%    49.5%    49.7%    49.9%    50.1%    50.3%
86%        49.5%    49.7%    49.9%    50.1%    50.3%    50.5%    50.7%
87%        49.9%    50.1%    50.3%    50.5%    50.7%    50.8%    51.0%
88%        50.3%    50.5%    50.7%    50.9%    51.0%    51.2%    51.4%
89%        50.7%    50.9%    51.0%    51.2%    51.4%    51.6%    51.8%
90%        51.0%    51.2%    51.4%    51.6%    51.8%    52.0%    52.2%
91%        51.4%    51.6%    51.8%    52.0%    52.2%    52.4%    52.56%
                                               

___________________________________________________________________________

 
 
Sensitivity Analysis II 
 
Weights based on adjusted 2000 recorded vote / 2004 total votes cast 
Adjusted 2000 recorded vote: reduce by 3% mortality; assume 95% turnout
 
Kerry wins by 52.7-46.3% (66.2-58.2 million).
 
Voted2k Votes      Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other
DNV     29.22      23.24%   57%      41%      2%
Gore    47.00      37.38%   91%      8%       1%
Bush    46.50      36.98%   10%      90%      0%
Other    3.02      2.40%    71%      21%      8%
 
Total                100%   52.66%   46.31%   1.03%
        125.74     125.74   66.22    58.22    1.30
                            
 
                                                      Kerry Vote Share 
Gore       
for                   DNV2k for Kerry                                            
Kerry      51.0%    52.0%    53.0%    54.0%    55.0%    56.0%    57.0%
 
85%        49.0%    49.3%    49.5%    49.7%    50.0%    50.2%    50.4%
86%        49.4%    49.6%    49.9%    50.1%    50.3%    50.6%    50.8%
87%        49.8%    50.0%    50.2%    50.5%    50.7%    50.9%    51.2%
88%        50.1%    50.4%    50.6%    50.8%    51.1%    51.3%    51.5%
89%        50.5%    50.8%    51.0%    51.2%    51.5%    51.7%    51.9%
90%        50.9%    51.1%    51.4%    51.6%    51.8%    52.1%    52.3%
91%        51.3%    51.5%    51.7%    52.0%    52.2%    52.4%    52.66%
 
 
Gore               
for                   Bush 2000 voters for Kerry       
Kerry      6.0%     7.0%     8.0%     9.0%     10.0%    11.0%    12.0%
 
85%        48.9%    49.3%    49.7%    50.1%    50.4%    50.8%    51.2%
86%        49.3%    49.7%    50.1%    50.4%    50.8%    51.2%    51.5%
87%        49.7%    50.1%    50.4%    50.8%    51.2%    51.5%    51.9%
88%        50.1%    50.4%    50.8%    51.2%    51.5%    51.9%    52.3%
89%        50.4%    50.8%    51.2%    51.5%    51.9%    52.3%    52.7%
90%        50.8%    51.2%    51.6%    51.9%    52.3%    52.7%    53.0%
91%        51.2%    51.6%    51.9%    52.3%    52.66%   53.0%    53.4%
 

___________________________________________________________________________

 
Sensitivity Analysis III – Uncounted and Switched Vote Rates
Base case: True Vote = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched 
 
Uncounted Votes: 3.45mm (2.74%) of 125.74mm cast
Uncounted share: Kerry 75%/ Bush 24%/ Other 1%
Switched-votes: 4.49mm (6.8%) of 66.1mm Kerry total votes cast
 
           Kerry    Bush     Other     Total           Kerry    Bush     Other
Recorded   59.03    62.04    1.23     122.30           48.27%   50.73%   1.00%
Uncounted   2.58     0.83    0.03       3.45            2.06%    0.66%   0.03%
Cast       61.61    62.87    1.26     125.74           49.00%   50.00%   1.00%
Switched    4.49    -4.49    0.00       0.00            3.57%   -3.57%   0.00%
 
True       66.10    58.38    1.26     125.74           52.57%   46.43%   1.00%
Exit Poll  65.13    59.35    0.88     125.74           51.80%   47.20%   1.00%
  
Unctd      Switched         Kerry                     
Dem%       0.0%     1.0%     2.0%     3.0%     4.0%     5.0%     6.0%     7.0%
 
0%         48.3%    48.7%    49.2%    49.7%    50.2%    50.7%    51.2%    51.6%
1%         48.5%    49.0%    49.5%    50.0%    50.5%    51.0%    51.4%    51.9%
2%         48.8%    49.3%    49.8%    50.3%    50.8%    51.2%    51.7%    52.2%
3%         49.1%    49.6%    50.0%    50.5%    51.0%    51.5%    52.0%    52.5%
4%         49.3%    49.8%    50.3%    50.8%    51.3%    51.8%    52.3%    52.8%
5%         49.6%    50.1%    50.6%    51.1%    51.6%    52.1%    52.6%    53.1%                                                          
 

 

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

State and National Pre-election Polls

Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation - The Nov.1 Election Model 

With a  base case 75% projected share of the undecided vote in the 2004 Election Model Monte Carlo Simulation, Kerry was expected to win 337 electoral votes and 51.8% of the two-party vote with a 99.8% EV win probability.  Assuming a 60% projected share, he was expected to win 320 EV and 51.0% with a 98.0% probability. The final Kerry/Bush state (weighted) and 18 national (unweighted) poll averages were 47.17–46.89% and 47.88-46.89%, respectively. 

 

 

         

 

Monte Carlo EV Simulation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projection

Elec. Vote

Pop. Vote %

Win Prob. %

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry

337

51.80

99.80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

201

48.20

0.20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National

National

State

 

 

 

MC EV Simulation  (5000 trial elections)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9 Poll

18 Poll

51  Poll

 

 

 

State  Model

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current %

Average

Average

Wtd  Avg

 

Undecided%

Allocation

 

Base Case

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry

47.11

47.17

47.88

 

 Kerry

60%

67%

75%

80%

87%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

46.56

46.89

46.89

 

Trial  Wins

4901

4972

4990

4997

4999

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Proj. 2-party%

 

 

 

 

Projected%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry

51.86

51.63

51.80

 

Kerry

51.02

51.38

51.80

52.07

52.43

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

48.14

48.38

48.20

 

Bush

48.98

48.62

48.20

47.93

47.57

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Win Prob %

1.03 MoE

0.73 MoE

EV Wins/5000

 

Win Prob%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry

99.98

100.00

99.80

 

Kerry

98.02

99.44

99.80

99.94

99.98

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bush

0.02

0.00

0.20

 

Bush

1.98

0.56

0.20

0.06

0.02

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2-Party Vote

1992-2000

Vote

Kerry

 

Electoral Vote

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

138.8 mil

52.61

50.52

 

Average

320

328

337

343

352

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Republican

125.0 mil

47.39

49.48

 

Median 

322

329

338

345

353

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maximum

379

388

405

405

412

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Minimum

211

237

229

243

254

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Battleground

Kerry current 2-party poll %

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AZ

47.37

NH

50.00

 

95% Conf. Interval

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AR

50.00

NC

48.14

 

Upper Limit

361

368

376

382

389

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CO

49.47

OH

51.55

 

Lower Limit

278

288

299

305

315

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FL

51.55

PA

52.63

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IA

53.19

TN

48.73

 

National 18-Polls

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MI

53.61

VA

47.96

 

Vote%

50.73

51.15

51.63

51.92

52.34

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MN

54.17

WA

54.17

 

Prob%

97.55

99.90

100.00

100.00

100.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MO

47.31

WV

48.52

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NV

50.00

WI

53.68

 

States Won

26

27

27

28

30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gore won

Kerry  leads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

States

21

26

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Elec. Vote

266

322

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2-party%

50.27

50.52

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
These graphs depict the 2004 projection trend:
 
Independent National Pollsters Monthly Average Trend
 
National State–weighted average Trend
 
Electoral and National Vote Projection Trend
 
Kerry Electoral Vote Frequency Histogram 
 
 

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

National Pre-election Monthly Polling Trend

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

In the Nov.1 Election Model, Kerry led the final 18 national pre-election polls by 47.17-46.89%.  Nine polls were registered voter (RV) and 9 were likely voter (LV). Kerry led in 11, Bush in 6.  The final Election Day Zogby and Harris LV polls were not included in the Nov.1 election model. Both had Kerry winning by 50-47%.  But that was before the allocation of undecided voters which Harris and Zogby said were breaking 2-1 to 4-1 for Kerry. According to the 12:22am National Exit Poll (NEP) , Kerry won the 6% of voters who decided on Election Day by 53-40%; he won the 10% who decided in the final month by 60-38%.  There is no doubt that Kerry won a solid majority of late undecided voters. The Election Model included a sensitivity analysis based on 5 undecided voter scenarios in which Kerry was projected to win 60, 67, 75, 80 and 87% of the undecided vote.  

The following 2004 National Pre-election Polls Monthly Trend of projections assumes that 75% of undecided voters break for Kerry. Kerry led the pre-election poll average every month except for January and September. There was a near-perfect 0.87 statistical correlation between the Bush average monthly approval rating and polling share.  

 

The Bush 48.5% average approval rating on Election Day is a key indicator of fraud, based on the following correlation analysis of pre-election national polls and the mysterious divergence of National Exit Poll approval weights from the average.

 

Correlation

There was a near-perfect 0.87 statistical correlation between Bush’s average monthly approval rating and his average national pre-election poll.

 
Bush approval ratings
Date     Nwk      Fox      CNN      Pew      Harris   CBS      ABC      Time     NBC      AP       Zogby     Mean
 
Jan-04   50       58       60       56       na       50       58       54       54       56       49        54.4 
Feb-04   48       48       51       48       51       50       50       54       na       47       na        49.5 
Mar-04   48       48       49       46       na       51       50       na       50       48       na        48.8 
Apr-04   49       50       52       48       48       46       51       49       na       48       47        48.6 
May-04   42       48       47       44       na       41       47       46       47       48       42        45.2 
 
Jun-04   na       48       49       48       50       42       47       na       45       48       46        47.0 
Jul-04   48       47       47       46       na       45       50       50       48       50       49        47.8 
Aug-04   45       51       51       46       48       46       50       51       47       49       44        48.0 
Sep-04   48       50       52       46       45       48       50       53       47       54       47        49.1 
Oct-04   46       49       46       44       na       49       53       53       49       47       49        48.5 
 
Average monthly pre-election polling
 
          Jan      Feb      Mar      April    May      June     July     Aug      Sept     Oct
Kerry     40.78    47.80    47.58    46.31    46.86    46.64    47.47    47.40    44.33    47.17
Bush      51.56    46.10    44.83    45.62    44.71    45.71    45.20    45.40    48.28    46.89
Average monthly approval 
 
          54.4     49.5     48.8     48.6     45.2     47.0     47.8     48.0     49.1     48.5 
Poll:Appr 0.95     0.93     0.92     0.94     0.99     0.97     0.95     0.95     0.98     0.97 


Projections (75% of undecided to Kerry)
 
Kerry     45.78    51.62    52.52    51.62    52.43    51.62    52.22    52.05    49.12    50.88
Bush      53.22    47.38    46.48    47.38    46.57    47.38    46.78    46.95    49.88    48.12
Other      1.00     1.00     1.00     1.00     1.00     1.00     1.00     1.00     1.00     1.00
                                                                                       
2-party                                                                                
Kerry     46.53    52.38    53.27    52.37    53.18    52.38    52.97    52.80    49.88    51.63
Bush      53.47    47.62    46.73    47.63    46.82    47.62    47.03    47.20    50.12    48.37
                                                                                       
 
National Pre-election polls and Kerry projected vote
 
TIPP                                                                                    
Kerry     na       44       45       40       43       43       46       44       46       44
Bush      na       41       43       44       42       44       43       44       45       45
Proj      na       54.5     53.3     51.3     53.5     52.0     53.5     52.3     52.0     51.5
 
ABC                                                                                     
Kerry     na       52       53       48       49       53       47       49       45       48
Bush      na       43       44       49       47       45       49       48       51       47
Proj      na       55.0     54.5     49.5     51.3     53.8     49.3     50.5     47.3     51.0
                                                                                       
AP                                                                                      
Kerry     37       na       45       44       43       43       45       48       42       49
Bush      54       na       46       45       46       46       49       45       51       46
Proj      43.0     na       51.0     51.5     50.5     50.5     48.8     52.5     46.5     52.0
 
NWK                                                                                     
Kerry     41       50       48       50       46       46       51       52       45       45
Bush      52       45       45       43       45       45       45       44       50       48
Proj      45.5     53.0     52.5     54.5     52.0     52.0     53.3     54.3     48.0     49.5
 
ARG                                                                                     
Kerry     47       48       50       50       47       48       49       49       46       49
Bush      46       46       43       44       44       46       45       46       47       48
Proj      51.5     51.8     54.5     53.8     53.0     51.8     52.8     52.0     50.5     50.5
                                                                                       
NBC                                                                                     
Kerry     35       na       43       43       42       44       45       45       46       47
Bush      54       na       46       46       46       45       47       47       49       48
Proj      42.5     na       50.5     50.5     50.3     51.5     50.3     50.3     49.0     50.0
 
FOX                                                                                     
Kerry     32       43       44       42       42       42       42       45       43       48
Bush      54       47       44       43       42       48       43       44       45       45
Proj      41.8     49.8     52.3     52.5     53.3     48.8     52.5     52.5     51.3     52.5
 
CBS                                                                                     
Kerry     48       47       48       48       49       45       49       45       41       46
Bush      43       46       43       43       41       44       44       44       49       47
Proj      54.0     51.5     54.0     54.0     55.8     52.5     53.5     52.5     47.8     50.5
                                                                                       
Gallup                                                                                 
Kerry     43       48       52       46       49       48       51       48       44       48
Bush      55       49       44       51       47       49       44       47       52       46
Proj      43.8     49.5     54.3     47.5     51.3     49.5     54.0     51.0     46.3     51.8
 
Pew                                                                                     
Kerry     41       47       48       47       50       46       46       47       40       46
Bush      52       47       44       46       45       48       44       45       48       45
Proj      45.5     50.8     53.3     51.5     53.0     49.8     52.8     52.3     48.3     52.0
 
LAT                                                                                     
Kerry     na       na       na       49       49       51       48       46       43       48
Bush      na       na       na       46       46       44       46       49       47       47
Proj      na       na       na       52.0     52.0     54.0     51.8     49.0     49.8     51.0
 
Zogby                                                                                   
Kerry     na       na       48       47       47       44       48       50       44       47
Bush      na       na       46       44       42       42       43       43       47       48
Proj      na       na       51.8     53.0     54.5     53.8     54.0     54.5     50.0     50.0
 
TIME                                                                                   
Kerry     43       48       na       na       51       51       50       46       44       46
Bush      54       50       na       na       46       46       45       46       48       51
Proj      44.5     48.8     na       na       52.5     52.5     53.0     51.3     49.3     47.5
 
Dem Corp                                                                               
Kerry     na       51       47       48       49       49       50       52       49       48
Bush      na       47       50       49       47       48       47       45       49       47
Proj      na       51.8     48.5     49.5     51.3     50.5     51.5     53.5     49.8     51.0
 
Marist                                                                                 
Kerry     na       na       na       na       na       na       45       45       45       49
Bush      na       na       na       na       na       na       44       44       47       48
Proj      na       na       na       na       na       na       52.5     52.5     50.3     50.5
 
Harris                                                                                 
Kerry     na       na       na       na       na       na       na       na       46       48
Bush      na       na       na       na       na       na       na       na       48       47
Proj      na       na       na       na       na       na       na       na       49.8     51.0
 
Economist                                                                                       
Kerry     na       na       na       na       na       na       na       na       46       49
Bush      na       na       na       na       na       na       na       na       46       45
Proj      na       na       na       na       na       na       na       na       51.3     52.8
 
ICR                                                                                    
Kerry     na       na       na       na       na       na       na       na       43       44
Bush      na       na       na       na       na       na       na       na       50       46
Proj      na       na       na       na       na       na       na       na       47.5     50.8

 

 

 

Date

Poll

Size

Type

KERRY

BUSH

 

 

 

 

 

 

November

 

 

 

 

 

2

Harris

1509

LV

48

47

2

Zogby

1200

LV

47

48

1

Marist

1166

LV

49

48

1

Econ

2903

RV

49

45

1

TIPP

1284

LV

44

45

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

CBS

1125

RV

46

47

 

October

31

FOX

1400

RV

48

45

31

Dem Corp

1018

LV

48

47

31

Gallup

1866

RV

48

46

31

NBC

1014

LV

47

48

 

 

 

 

 

 

31

ABC

3511

RV

48

47

30

ARG

1258

LV

49

48

30

Pew

2408

RV

46

45

29

Nwk

1005

RV

45

48

26

ICR

817

RV

44

46

 

 

 

 

 

 

24

LAT

1698

RV

48

47

 

21

Time

803

LV

46

51

 

20

AP

976

LV

49

46

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 
State Pre-election Polling Trend

 

The Election Model Monte Carlo Simulation forecast was updated  during the four months leading up to the election as new state polling data was introduced. The projections below assume that Kerry, running against the unpopular Bush, would win 60-75% of undecided voters (UVA).

 

                                       7-Sep          7-Oct           1-Nov Final      
                                   Kerry   Bush     Kerry   Bush      Kerry   Bush
Before UVA:
Unweighted Average                 43.94   47.65    46.84   46.86     45.70   47.60  
Weighted Average                   45.54   46.45    47.97   46.66     47.88   46.89                   
 
Projection (75% UVA): 
2-party vote                       51.54   48.46    51.99   48.01     51.80   48.20
Total vote (Other: 1%)             50.79   48.21    51.24   47.76     51.05   47.95
 
Projection (60% UVA): 
2-party vote                       50.71   49.29    51.10   48.90     51.02   48.98
Total vote (Other: 1%)             50.21   48.79    50.60   48.40     50.52   48.48
 
 
State    Date    Pollster         Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush
 
AL       Oct 27   Survey USA       34       54       40       56       39       57
AK       Sep 11   ARG              33       56       39       55       30       57
AZ       Oct 26   Rasmussen        42       45       47       50       45       50
AR       Oct 29   Mason-Dixon      47       48       47       47       48       48
CA       Oct 27   Field Poll       50       42       51       43       49       42
 
CO       Oct 30   Zogby            47       47       49       48       47       48
CT       Oct 28   Research 2000    45       38       47       38       52       42
DE       Sep 25   W Chester U      55       42       45       38       45       38
DC       Sep 13   ARG              86        9       78       11       78       11
FL       Oct 30   Zogby            44       48       50       48       50       47
 
GA       Oct 29   Zogby            38       55       42       53       42       52
HI       Oct 20   SMS Res          48       41       51       41       45       45
ID       Sep 10   ARG              25       55       30       59       30       59
IL       Oct 29   Survey USA       52       38       55       38       54       42
IN       Oct 29   Survey USA       40       52       40       53       39       58
 
IA       Oct 30   Zogby            47       47       51       44       50       44
KS       Oct 27   Survey USA       36       56       35       57       37       60
KY       Oct 20   Bluegrass        39       56       38       53       39       56
LA       Oct 22   SE LA U          36       52       42       50       40       48
ME       Oct 21   Zogby            49       44       42       39       50       39
 
MD       Oct 29   Survey USA       53       42       48       45       54       43
MA       Oct  5   Merrimack        56       30       64       27       64       27
MI       Oct 30   Zogby            48       44       52       42       52       45
MN       Oct 30   Zogby            46       46       53       44       52       44
MS       Sep 17   ARG              30       61       42       51       42       51
 
MO       Oct 29   Mason-Dixon      45       49       49       50       44       49
MT       Oct 20   Mason-Dixon      33       53       36       54       36       57
NE       Oct 20   RKM Research     33       62       30       61       32       61
NV       Oct 29   Survey USA       48       46       48       47       49       49
NH       Oct 30   ARG              51       43       51       44       47       47
 
NJ       Oct 29   Survey USA       50       46       50       45       50       42
NM       Oct 30   ARG              42       45       55       43       49       49
NY       Oct 28   Survey USA       56       37       53       41       57       39
NC       Oct 26   Mason-Dixon      45       51       47       50       47       50
ND       Oct 19   Minn St U        33       61       33       62       35       55
 
OH       Oct 30   Zogby            42       48       48       47       50       47
OK       Oct 24   Wilson Res       38       57       29       52       28       61
OR       Oct 29   Mason-Dixon      54       43       55       44       50       44
PA       Oct 30   Zogby            46       47       52       46       50       45
RI       Oct 27   Survey USA       49       25       55       37       56       36
 
SC       Oct 24   Survey USA       42       53       37       55       42       55
SD       Oct 24   McLaughlin       40       54       40       52       42       52
TN       Oct 21   Mason-Dixon      50       48       48       50       48       50
TX       Oct 28   Survey USA       33       57       37       58       37       59
UT       Oct 28   Dan Jones        22       67       27       64       24       69
 
VT       Oct 12   Research2k       51       36       50       40       53       40
VA       Oct 29   Survey USA       45       49       47       50       47       51
WA       Oct 27   Strat Vision     48       43       54       44       52       44
WV       Oct 29   Mason-Dixon      42       49       44       50       46       49
WI       Oct 30   Zogby            49       45       51       48       51       44
WY       Sep 11   ARG              28       68       29       65       29       65
 

___________________________________________________________________

 
 
Weekly Average Trend
 

Although Bush led in the unweighted average, Kerry led the weighted average trend (based on 1992-2000 state vote) from July to Election Day, except for the first two weeks in September. The projections assume Kerry would win 75% of the undecided vote.

 
Poll      Unweighted       Weighted            2-party       Projected         
Date     Kerry    Bush   Kerry   Bush       Kerry   Bush     Kerry    Bush
2-Jul    43.5     46.5     45.4     44.6     50.5     49.5     52.2     46.8
10-Jul   43.8     46.7     45.8     44.9     50.5     49.5     52.0     47.0
17-Jul   44.5     46.5     46.5     44.3     51.2     48.8     52.6     46.4
24-Jul   44.2     46.1     45.6     43.6     51.1     48.9     52.9     46.1
 
2-Aug    44.4     46.5     46.3     44.6     50.9     49.1     52.3     46.7
10-Aug   44.3     46.4     46.4     44.3     51.2     48.8     52.7     46.3
18-Aug   44.1     46.4     46.2     44.3     51.0     49.0     52.6     46.4
26-Aug   45.2     47.5     47.2     46.6     50.3     49.7     51.1     47.9
 
7-Sep    43.9     47.6     45.5     46.5     49.5     50.5     50.8     48.2
14-Sep   43.7     48.4     45.6     47.3     49.1     50.9     50.2     48.8
22-Sep   45.0     48.7     47.3     47.1     50.1     49.9     50.8     48.2
29-Sep   44.1     47.6     46.0     45.5     50.3     49.7     51.7     47.3
 
7-Oct    45.7     47.6     47.9     46.7     50.7     49.3     51.2     47.8
14-Oct   45.4     47.9     47.3     46.7     50.3     49.7     51.0     48.0
21-Oct   46.0     48.1     48.4     46.4     51.1     48.9     51.5     47.5
28-Oct   45.4     47.4     47.1     45.9     50.7     49.3     51.6     47.4
 
1-Nov    45.55    48.28    47.88    46.89    50.52    49.48    51.05    47.95
 

___________________________________________________________________

 
Pre-election Battleground State Polls
 

Final pre-election Zogby polls for nine battleground states were included in the Election Model Monte Carlo simulation forecast.  Kerry was leading in 8 of the 9 states by an average of 50.2-44.8%.  The base case assumption was that he would capture 75% of the undecided (UVA) vote and win all 9 states by a 53.7-45.9% margin.  The conservative assumption was that he would capture 55% UVA and capture 8 states by 52.7-46.8%.  He won just 4 states by 50.1- 49.4%.  The margin of error was exceeded in 7 states, a 1 in 4.7 billion probability.

 
                           75% UVA            55% UVA                                  
Zogby   Oct. 31 Poll       Projection       Projection        Recorded          75% UVA    
State    Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Dev      Prob
 
CO       47       48       50.3     49.1     49.4     50.0     47.4     52.1     2.97     3.27%
FL       50       47       51.9     47.6     51.4     48.2     47.3     52.3     4.65     0.20%                               
IA       50       44       54.2     45.4     53.1     46.5     49.5     50.1     4.73     0.17%
ME       50       39       57.6     41.5     55.6     43.6     54.1     45.1     3.54     1.42%                                                                                             
 
MI       52       45       53.9     45.6     53.4     46.1     51.5     48.0     2.40     6.83% 
MN       52       44       54.5     44.8     53.8     45.5     51.5     47.9     3.08     2.82%                               
OH       50       47       52.3     47.8     51.7     48.4     48.9     51.1     3.30     2.03%
PA       50       45       53.8     46.3     52.8     47.3     51.3     48.7     2.48     6.18%
WI       51       44       54.3     45.1     53.5     46.0     49.9     49.6     4.43     0.30%
                                                                                                         
Mean     50.2     44.8     53.7     45.9     52.7     46.8     50.1     49.5     3.51     2.58%
 
 
Probability of average deviation (in parenthesis):
 
Sample   MoE             75% UVA (3.51%)      55% UVA (2.58%) 
1000     3.16%            1 in 68             1 in 19  
6000     1.29%            1 in 20 million     1 in 25 thousand                          
9000     1.05%            1 in 30 billion     1 in 1.5 million        
 
 
 
Comparison of Zogby Battleground state pre-election polls and unadjusted exit polls
 
The 9-poll projection average was within 0.5% of the exit poll average. 
 
Average of 9 BATTLEGROUND STATES
Poll       Kerry   Bush
Zogby      50.2   44.8 (final pre-election polls)
Projection 53.7   45.9 (75% undecided to Kerry) 
Exit (WPE) 53.2   45.8
 
Difference  0.5    0.1
         
         Zogby Poll         Projection      Exit Poll            Recorded      
St       Kerry Bush        Kerry   Bush     Kerry Bush          Kerry Bush    
                                                                      
CO       47       48       50.3     49.1     50.1    48.6        47.4   52.1    
FL       50       47       51.9     47.6     50.9     48.3        47.3   52.3    
IA       50       44       54.2     45.4     50.7     48.4        49.5   50.1    
ME       50       39       57.6     41.5     55.5     42.7        54.1   45.1    
MI       52       45       53.9     45.6     54.4     44.7        51.5   48.0    
 
MN       52       44       54.5     44.8     55.7     43.0        51.5   47.9    
OH       50       47       52.3     47.8     54.2     45.4        48.9   51.1    
PA       50       45       53.8     46.3     55.3     44.0        51.3   48.7    
WI       51       44       54.3     45.1     52.0     47.0        49.9   49.6    
                                                                                       
Average  50.2     44.8     53.7     45.9     53.2     45.8        50.1   49.5    
 

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

State Exit Polls
 
Pre-election Projections vs. Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote

 

The pre-election 2004 Election Model predicted that Kerry would win 337 EV based on the final state pre-election polls, assuming that he captured 75% of undecided voters. The post-election True Vote Model determined that Kerry actually won 336 electoral votes. This  was based on 12:22am National Exit Poll,  assuming 95% turnout of 2000 voters and a 75% Kerry share of  3.4mm uncounted votes (2004 Census).  The actual recorded state vote shares consistently understated Kerry’s pre-election and 12:22am exit poll shares.  But aggregate weighted pre-election state and national poll projections matched the 12:22am exit polls. If, as the naysayers claim, the exit polls were biased for Kerry, do they also suggest that the close match between pre-election and exit polls imply that the pre-election polls were biased as well?

 

 
                Final NEP      Recorded        2-party       
               Kerry   Bush    Kerry   Bush    Kerry   Bush
                47.78  51.22   48.27   50.73   48.76   51.24
                                                     
UVA: percentage of undecided allocated to Kerry
2-party: 0.75% of 3rd party to Kerry, 0.25% to Bush                                          
 
                  Final Poll       Projection        2-party 
                 Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush
PRE-ELECTION
75% UVA                                                      
National         47.17    46.89    50.88    48.12    51.63   48.37
State            47.88    46.89    51.05    47.95    51.80    48.20
 
60% UVA                                                      
National         47.17    46.89    50.13    48.87    50.88    49.12
State            47.88    46.89    50.42    48.58    51.17    48.83
 
EXIT POLLS
NEP Gender       50.78    48.22    50.78    48.22    51.53    48.47
NEP Voted 2k     51.41    47.59    51.41    47.59    52.16    47.84 
State (Gender)   50.33    48.88    50.33    48.88    50.92    49.08
State (WPE)      51.81    48.19    51.81    48.19   52.51    47.49   
                                                             
MODELS
Optimizer 1      51.62    47.37    51.62    47.37    52.15    47.85 (1250 precincts grouped by partisanship)
Optimizer 2      51.62    47.37    51.62    47.37    52.15    47.85 (Big City, Small City, Suburban, Small Town, Rural)
Optimizer 3      51.77    47.21    51.77    47.21    52.30    47.70 (States grouped by partisanship)
True Vote        52.57    46.43    52.57    46.43    53.32    46.68
Calculator        53.45   45.50    53.45    45.50   54.15    45.85 
 
Optimizer: 1250 E-M precinct WPE, partisanship response rates
True Vote: 2000 recorded voter turnout, 0.87% mortality, 95% turnout
Calculator: 2000 Census voter turnout, 1.22% voter mortality, 95% turnout

_____________________________________________________________________

 
Interactive Election Simulation  
 
State pre-election projections and exit poll simulations vs. the recorded vote

 

The 2004 Election Simulation Model contains worksheets for 1) state pre-election and exit polls, 2) 18 national pre-election polls,  3) 12:22am National Exit Poll,  4) “How Voted in 2000” demographic sensitivity analysis,  5) state and precinct exit poll response optimizations analysis; 6) Gender vote analysis; 7) Ohio exit poll and 8) Census 2004 vote data. The key assumptions which drive the model are user-entered. Pre-election: undecided voter allocation; Exit Poll: “cluster” effect.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                 MONTE CARLO ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION
                                  STATE PRE-ELECTION AND EXIT POLLS                                                          
 
Sample Simulation              
Input Assumptions:
Undecided to Kerry: 75.0%                                                           
Exit Poll Cluster Effect: 30%                                                               
Exit Poll Data based on: Edison-Mitofsky WPE                                
                                                                                            
Kerry Electoral Vote:          
Mean:    338    
Median:  336   
Maximum: 364   
Minimum: 302   
 
Win Prob: 100% 
                                                                                                            
                 Pre      Exit     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Kerry    Kerry   -Exceed MoE-      Vote Discrepancy 
                  MoE     MoE      Pre      Pre      Exit     Exit     PreSim   ExitSim Recorded Pre     Exit      Pre     Exit     Diff
         Wtd Avg  3.92     3.17     47.69    47.02    51.81    47.19    50.77    51.85    48.28    19       23         (2.5)    (3.6)    (1.1)
         EV                                                                                                                 
AL       9        3.91     4.64     39       57       42.5     56.8     43.6     40.6     36.9     AL       -         (6.7)    (3.8)    2.9 
AK       3        3.88     4.14     30       57       40.3     56.3     39.3     44.1     35.6     -        AK         (3.7)    (8.5)    (4.8)
AR       6        3.96     2.95     45       50       44.8     54.1     48.9     45.9     44.6     AR       -         (4.4)    (1.4)    3.0 
AZ       10       3.96     3.40     46       48       46.7     52.6     51.1     45.3     44.4     AZ       -         (6.7)    (0.9)    5.7 
CA       55       3.93     2.89     49       42       59.8     38.9     56.3     59.6     54.4     -        CA         (1.8)    (5.1)    (3.3)
                                                                                                -        -                  
CO       9        3.96     2.54     47       48       50.1     48.6     52.6     50.4     47.1     CO       CO         (5.5)    (3.4)    2.2 
CT       7        3.93     4.25     52       42       62.2     36.1     52.1     62.4     54.3     -        CT         2.2      (8.1)    (10.3)
DE       3        3.91     4.53     45       38       61.3     37.8     60.2     61.9     53.4     DE       DE         (6.9)    (8.5)    (1.6)
DC       3        2.73     2.50     78       11       90.9     7.6      85.7     90.8     89.4     DC       -         3.8      (1.4)    (5.1)
FL       27       3.96     2.39     50       47       50.9     48.3     51.7     51.6     47.1     FL       FL         (4.5)    (4.5)    0.0 
                                                                                                -        -                  
GA       15       3.95     3.22     42       52       42.5     56.9     45.0     43.3     41.4     -        -         (3.6)    (1.9)    1.8 
HI       4        3.96     5.69     45       45       56.4     42.9     49.4     56.3     54.0     HI       -         4.6      (2.3)    (6.9)
ID       4        3.85     5.08     30       59       30.8     67.9     36.2     28.7     30.3     ID       -         (6.0)    1.6      7.5 
IL       21       3.92     3.38     54       42       57.0     42.3     54.8     57.8     54.8     -        -         0.0      (3.0)    (3.0)
IN       11       3.90     4.12     39       58       40.0     59.2     39.1     41.1     39.3     -        -         0.1      (1.8)    (1.9)
                                                                                                -        -                  
IA       7        3.94     2.55     50       44       50.7     48.4     54.6     51.1     49.3     IA       -         (5.3)    (1.8)    3.4 
KS       6        3.87     4.74     37       60       37.5     61.2     36.2     38.6     36.6     -        -         0.4      (2.0)    (2.4)
KY       8        3.92     3.89     39       56       39.6     59.6     42.4     38.5     39.7     -        -         (2.7)    1.2      3.9 
LA       9        3.96     3.10     40       48       44.1     54.8     47.8     42.9     42.3     LA       -         (5.5)    (0.6)    4.9 
ME       4        3.91     2.86     50       39       55.5     42.7     55.5     53.9     53.6     -        -         (1.9)    (0.3)    1.6 
                                                                                                -        -                  
MD       10       3.93     3.99     54       43       60.0     38.9     53.3     63.3     56.0     -        MD         2.7      (7.3)    (10.0)
MA       12       3.60     4.03     64       27       64.8     33.9     70.3     64.4     62.1     MA       -         (8.2)    (2.3)    5.8 
MI       17       3.95     2.57     52       45       54.4     44.7     54.6     53.3     51.2     -        -         (3.3)    (2.1)    1.3 
MN       10       3.94     2.72     52       44       55.7     43.0     48.7     55.2     51.2     -        MN         2.5      (4.0)    (6.6)
MS       6        3.95     4.47     42       51       45.8     53.4     47.0     47.1     40.2     MS       MS         (6.8)    (6.9)    (0.1)
                                                                                                -        -                  
MO       11       3.96     2.74     44       49       49.0     50.4     47.2     50.6     46.1     -        MO         (1.1)    (4.5)    (3.4)
MT       3        3.90     4.92     36       57       37.7     60.0     39.0     35.8     38.6     -        -         (0.4)    2.8      3.2 
NE       5        3.83     4.38     32       61       36.7     61.8     39.3     35.6     32.7     NE       -         (6.5)    (2.8)    3.7 
NV       5        3.96     2.77     49       49       52.9     45.4     45.2     53.1     48.1     -        NV         2.8      (5.0)    (7.9)
NH       4        3.96     2.94     47       47       57.0     42.1     53.8     57.0     50.4     -        NH         (3.5)    (6.7)    (3.2)
                                                                                                -        -                  
NJ       15       3.93     3.24     50       42       57.8     41.4     56.1     56.6     52.9     -        NJ         (3.2)    (3.7)    (0.5)
NM       5        3.96     2.88     49       49       52.9     45.9     47.4     52.4     49.0     -        NM         1.6      (3.3)    (4.9)
NY       31       3.88     3.21     57       39       64.1     34.4     60.9     64.9     58.4     -        NY         (2.5)    (6.5)    (4.0)
NC       15       3.96     2.73     47       50       49.2     50.4     47.6     48.9     43.6     NC       NC         (4.0)    (5.3)    (1.4)
ND       3        3.92     4.72     35       55       32.9     65.5     41.0     36.3     35.5     ND       -         (5.5)    (0.8)    4.7 
                                                                                                -        -                  
OH       20       3.96     2.87     50       47       54.2     45.4     52.2     54.9     48.7     -        OH         (3.5)    (6.2)    (2.8)
OK       7        3.81     3.09     28       61       33.5     66.5     38.0     30.9     34.4     -        OK         (3.6)    3.5      7.1 
OR       7        3.94     3.90     50       44       51.3     47.2     52.3     52.1     51.6     -        -         (0.7)    (0.5)    0.2 
PA       21       3.95     2.89     50       45       55.3     44.0     54.0     56.6     51.0     -        PA         (3.1)    (5.6)    (2.5)
RI       4        3.84     4.29     56       36       61.8     36.3     63.4     59.0     59.6     -        -         (3.8)    0.6      4.4 
                                                                                                -        -                  
SC       8        3.93     3.05     42       55       45.9     53.0     41.0     44.9     41.0     -        SC         (0.0)    (3.9)    (3.9)
SD       3        3.95     3.19     42       52       36.3     62.0     43.3     34.6     38.4     SD       SD         (4.9)    3.8      8.7 
TN       11       3.96     2.98     47       50       42.8     56.5     45.7     42.7     42.5     -        -         (3.2)    (0.2)    3.0 
TX       34       3.88     3.01     37       59       40.6     58.7     36.7     39.4     38.2     -        -         1.5      (1.2)    (2.7)
UT       5        3.60     4.13     24       69       29.2     68.3     31.9     30.1     26.0     UT       -         (5.8)    (4.1)    1.7 
                                                                                                -        -                  
VT       3        3.91     4.62     53       40       66.4     31.3     55.9     71.3     59.2     -        VT         3.3      (12.1)   (15.4)
VA       13       3.96     3.37     47       51       49.4     49.7     49.2     48.6     45.6     -        -         (3.7)    (3.0)    0.6 
WA       11       3.94     2.75     52       44       57.0     41.4     55.8     57.1     52.9     -        WA         (2.9)    (4.3)    (1.3)
WV       5        3.96     3.06     45       49       40.3     59.0     45.6     41.9     43.2     -        -         (2.4)    1.3      3.8 
WI       10       3.94     2.70     51       44       52.0     47.0     51.8     50.7     49.8     -        -         (2.1)    (1.0)    1.1 
WY       3        3.74     4.55     29       65       31.2     66.7     33.0     32.8     29.1     WY       -         (3.9)    (3.6)    0.3 
 

___________________________________________________________

 

State Exit Polls: WPE, GEO, Composite

 

Edison-Mitofsky provided 3 state exit poll estimates in their Jan. 2005 report.

Bush won the recorded vote share 50.73-48.27% with 286 electoral votes.

 

WPE (Within-Precinct-Error): difference between the average precinct exit poll margin and the recorded vote margin – after removing “outliers” which most likely lowered the average Kerry share. Kerry’s weighted average national vote share was 51.81%. His electoral vote was 324.

 

BEST GEO: the estimate made at close-of-poll, weighted by sample, but not by results or pre-election estimates. Kerry’s weighted average national vote share was 51.02%. His electoral vote was 301.

 

COMPOSITE (12:22am): the estimate after adjustment to pre-election estimates.  Kerry’s weighted average national vote share was 50.28%. His electoral vote was 288.

 

WPE is the difference between the official recorded vote margin and exit poll margin and represents the “pristine” raw exit poll results.  E-M did not provide the corresponding state exit poll vote shares, but these can be calculated by applying the WPE to the official recorded vote. Based on the WPE measure, Kerry was a 51.8-47.2% winner. The 2004 Election Model projected Kerry as the winner of the 2-party vote by 51.8 - 48.2%.

 

Example: Calculation of the Ohio exit poll vote shares

 

Ohio recorded (official) vote: 
B   = 50.8% = Bush official state vote share
K   = 48.7% = Kerry official state vote share
BM  =  2.1% = Bush official margin
WPE = 10.9% = Within Precinct Error
 
Bush exit poll margin:
BEM = BM – WPE = 2.1% - 10.9% = - 8.8%
 
Calculate exit poll shares:
KP = Kerry = K + 0.5* WPE
BP = Bush   = B - 0.5* WPE
 
KP = 48.7 + 5.45 = 54.15% 
BP = 50.8 - 5.45 = 45.35%
 
This graph displays linear regressions of WPE, GEO and Composite exit poll discrepancies. 
 
 

* WPE results differ substantially from the Recorded Vote and the Composite (12:22am) exit poll.

 
 
Estimate          RECORDED                           WPE                           BEST GEO                           COMPOSITE        
Electoral Vote    251-286                         324-214                         301-237                             288-250  
                 
State    Kerry    Bush     Margin           Kerry    Bush     Margin            Kerry    Bush     Margin            Kerry    Bush     Margin
WtdAvg   48.27    50.73    -2.46            51.81    47.19    4.63              51.02    48.49    2.53              50.28    49.10    1.17
                                                                                                                            
AL*      36.8     62.5     -25.6            42.5     56.8     -14.3             42.0     57.5     -15.5             40.6     58.7     -18.1
AK*      35.5     61.1     -25.5            40.3     56.3     -15.9             41.2     57.4     -16.2             39.0     58.8     -19.8
AZ       44.4     54.9     -10.5            46.7     52.6     -5.9              46.5     53.5     -7.0              46.8     53.2     -6.4
AR       44.5     54.3     -9.8             44.8     54.1     -9.3              46.8     52.4     -5.6              47.0     52.2     -5.2
CA*      54.3     44.4     9.9              59.8     38.9     20.8              56.5     43.5     13.0              56.5     43.5     13.0
                                                                                                                            
CO*      47.0     51.7     -4.7             50.1     48.6     1.4               47.0     52.5     -5.5              47.7     51.4     -3.7
CT*      54.3     43.9     10.4             62.2     36.1     26.1              59.3     39.6     19.7              58.1     40.5     17.6
DE*      53.3     45.8     7.6              61.3     37.8     23.5              61.5     37.9     23.6              57.7     41.2     16.5
DC       89.2     9.3      79.8             90.9     7.6      83.2              91.1     8.1      83.0              90.2     8.4      81.8
FL*      47.1     52.1     -5.0             50.9     48.3     2.6               49.2     50.3     -1.1              49.3     50.1     -0.8
                                                                                                                            
GA       41.4     58.0     -16.6            42.5     56.9     -14.4             43.5     56.5     -13.0             43.0     57.1     -14.1
HI       54.0     45.3     8.7              56.4     42.9     13.4              56.5     43.4     13.1              53.6     46.4     7.2
ID       30.3     68.4     -38.1            30.8     67.9     -37.1             30.9     69.1     -38.2             31.6     68.3     -36.7
IL*      54.8     44.5     10.3             57.0     42.3     14.7              57.5     42.6     14.9              57.0     42.9     14.1
IN       39.3     59.9     -20.7            40.0     59.2     -19.2             40.5     59.6     -19.1             41.3     58.8     -17.5
                                                                                                                            
IA*      49.2     49.9     -0.7             50.7     48.4     2.3               50.0     49.0     1.0               50.0     49.0     1.0
KS       36.6     62.0     -25.4            37.5     61.2     -23.7             36.6     62.8     -26.2             34.4     64.6     -30.2
KY       39.7     59.6     -19.9            39.6     59.6     -20.0             40.6     58.6     -18.0             40.9     58.3     -17.4
LA       42.2     56.7     -14.5            44.1     54.8     -10.7             43.2     56.3     -13.1             44.3     54.8     -10.5
ME*      53.6     44.6     9.0              55.5     42.7     12.8              54.3     44.6     9.7               53.9     44.4     9.5
                                                                                                                            
MD*      55.9     42.9     13.0             60.0     38.9     21.1              59.4     39.7     19.7              56.6     42.5     14.1
MA*      61.9     36.8     25.2             64.8     33.9     31.0              66.3     33.6     32.7              65.7     34.2     31.5
MI*      51.2     47.8     3.4              54.4     44.7     9.7               51.8     47.3     4.5               51.9     47.1     4.8
MN*      51.1     47.6     3.5              55.7     43.0     12.8              56.7     42.4     14.3              53.7     44.9     8.8
MS*      40.2     59.0     -18.9            45.8     53.4     -7.6              46.2     53.2     -7.0              43.4     56.0     -12.6
                                                                                                                            
MO*      46.1     53.3     -7.2             49.0     50.4     -1.4              47.8     52.2     -4.4              47.8     52.1     -4.3
MT       38.6     59.1     -20.5            37.7     60.0     -22.3             37.8     59.9     -22.1             37.2     60.0     -22.8
NE*      32.7     65.9     -33.2            36.7     61.8     -25.1             37.5     61.7     -24.2             36.1     62.6     -26.5
NV*      47.9     50.5     -2.6             52.9     45.4     7.5               49.3     47.9     1.4               48.9     48.3     0.6
NH*      50.2     48.9     1.4              57.0     42.1     15.0              57.1     42.1     15.0              55.1     43.9     11.2
                                                                                                                            
NJ*      52.9     46.2     6.7              57.8     41.4     16.4              58.4     40.2     18.2              55.3     42.8     12.5
NM*      49.0     49.8     -0.8             52.9     45.9     7.0               51.7     47.5     4.2               50.8     48.0     2.8
NY*      58.4     40.1     18.3             64.1     34.4     29.7              65.1     33.8     31.3              63.1     35.5     27.6
NC*      43.6     56.0     -12.4            49.2     50.4     -1.1              48.2     51.8     -3.6              48.1     51.9     -3.8
ND       35.5     62.9     -27.4            32.9     65.5     -32.6             32.3     66.7     -34.4             33.3     64.9     -31.6
                                                                                                                            
OH*      48.7     50.8     -2.1             54.2     45.4     8.8               53.2     46.7     6.5               51.7     48.3     3.4
OK       34.4     65.6     -31.1            33.5     66.5     -33.0             34.1     65.8     -31.7             34.6     65.4     -30.8
OR       51.3     47.2     4.2              51.3     47.2     4.2               51.3     47.2     4.2               51.3     47.19    4.2
PA*      50.9     48.4     2.5              55.3     44.0     11.3              56.9     43.1     13.8              54.2     45.7     8.5
RI*      59.4     38.7     20.8             61.8     36.3     25.5              62.4     36.3     26.1              63.2     34.9     28.3
                                                                                                                            
SC*      40.9     58.0     -17.1            45.9     53.0     -7.1              46.4     52.4     -6.0              45.1     53.8     -8.7
SD       38.4     59.9     -21.5            36.3     62.0     -25.7             34.9     63.2     -28.3             36.8     61.5     -24.7
TN       42.5     56.8     -14.3            42.8     56.5     -13.8             40.3     58.5     -18.2             41.3     57.6     -16.3
TX*      38.2     61.1     -22.9            40.6     58.7     -18.1             36.5     63.5     -27.0             37.1     62.9     -25.8
UT*      26.0     71.5     -45.5            29.2     68.3     -39.1             29.9     69.2     -39.3             29.9     68.3     -38.4
                                                                                                                            
VT*      58.9     38.8     20.1             66.4     31.3     35.1              67.0     30.4     36.6              64.5     32.8     31.7
VA       45.5     53.7     -8.2             49.4     49.7     -0.3              50.2     49.7     0.5               48.0     51.9     -3.9
WA*      52.8     45.6     7.2              57.0     41.4     15.6              54.9     44.2     10.7              54.1     44.6     9.5
WV       43.2     56.1     -12.9            40.3     59.0     -18.7             41.6     57.4     -15.8             44.9     54.2     -9.3
WI*      49.7     49.3     0.4              52.0     47.0     5.1               52.5     46.8     5.7               49.6     49.2     0.4
WY       29.1     68.9     -39.8            31.2     66.7     -35.5             34.5     63.6     -29.1             31.6     66.4     -34.8
 
 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

 

Monte Carlo Polling Simulation

 

This is a sample run from the Monte Carlo Polling Simulation model using the WPE measure.

 

         Cluster          10%     20%      30%      40%      50%      60%      70%      80%      90%
         States > MoE     25       24       24       22       20       17       16       15       15
         Prob:  1 in      zero     zero     zero     zero     750tr    257tr    19tr     1tr      1tr
 
        Assuming a 30% cluster effect (CE), N = 24 states exceeding the MoE for Bush
        Prob = 1 - BINOMDIST (N-1, 51, 0.025, TRUE) 
        Prob = 1 – BINOMDIST (23, 51, 0.025, TRUE) = ZERO
 
        Assuming a 70% cluster effect, N=16 states. The probability is 1 in 19 trillion.
         
                                                                                                         
                 Kerry                      Kerry    Exit Poll         Recorded        Dev    Favor Exceed
         EV       EV         WPE     MoE     WinProb  Kerry   Bush      Kerry    Bush    Prob     Bush MoE
         Total    335        7.1    30% CE    -       51.8     47.2     48.3     50.7    -         44   24
                                                                                                         
AL       9        -         11.3    4.64%    0.1%     42.5     56.8     36.9     62.5     0.9%     Bush yes
AK       3        -          9.6    4.14%    0.0%     40.3     56.3     35.6     61.2     1.3%     Bush yes
AR       6        -          0.5    2.95%    0.0%     44.8     54.1     44.6     54.3     43.4%    Bush     
AZ       10       -          4.6    3.40%    2.8%     46.7     52.6     44.4     54.9     9.2%     Bush     
CA       55       55        10.9    2.89%    100%     59.8     38.9     54.4     44.5     0.0%     Bush yes
                                                                                                         
CO       9        -          6.1    2.54%    53.1%    50.1     48.6     47.1     51.8     1.0%     Bush yes
CT       7        7         15.7    4.25%    100%     62.2     36.1     54.3     43.9     0.0%     Bush yes
DE       3        3         15.9    4.53%    100%     61.3     37.8     53.4     45.8     0.0%     Bush yes
DC       3        3          3.4    2.50%    100%     90.9     7.6      89.4     9.4      12.5%    Bush     
FL       27       27         7.6    2.39%    77.0%    50.9     48.3     47.1     52.1     0.1%     Bush yes
                                                                                                         
GA       15       -          2.2    3.22%    0.0%     42.5     56.9     41.4     58.0     25.4%    Bush     
HI       4        4          4.7    5.69%    98.6%    56.4     42.9     54.0     45.3     20.5%    Bush     
ID       4        -          1.0    5.08%    0.0%     30.8     67.9     30.3     68.4     41.8%    Bush     
IL       21       21         4.4    3.38%    100%     57.0     42.3     54.8     44.5     10.3%    Bush     
IN       11       -          1.5    4.12%    0.0%     40.0     59.2     39.3     59.9     36.3%    Bush     
                                                                                                         
IA       7        -          5.0    2.55%    70.5%    50.7     48.4     49.3     50.0     13.8%    Bush     
KS       6        -          1.7    4.74%    0.0%     37.5     61.2     36.6     62.0     35.9%    Bush     
KY       8        -         -0.1    3.89%    0.0%     39.6     59.6     39.7     59.6     48.2%    Kerry    
LA       9        -          3.8    3.10%    0.0%     44.1     54.8     42.3     56.8     12.9%    Bush     
ME       4        4          3.8    2.86%    100%     55.5     42.7     53.6     44.6     9.3%     Bush     
                                                                                                        
MD       10       10         8.1    3.99%    100%     60.0     38.9     56.0     43.0     2.4%     Bush yes
MA       12       12         5.8    4.03%    100%     64.8     33.9     62.1     36.9     9.4%     Bush     
MI       17       17         6.3    2.57%    100%     54.4     44.7     51.2     47.8     0.8%     Bush yes
MN       10       10         9.3    2.72%    100%     55.7     43.0     51.2     47.7     0.1%     Bush yes
MS       6        -         11.3    4.47%    3.3%     45.8     53.4     40.2     59.1     0.7%     Bush yes
                                                                                                         
MO       11       11         5.8    2.74%    23.7%    49.0     50.4     46.1     53.3     1.9%     Bush yes
MT       3        -         -1.8    4.92%    0.0%     37.7     60.0     38.6     59.1     36.5%    Kerry    
NE       5        -          8.1    4.38%    0.0%     36.7     61.8     32.7     66.0     3.8%     Bush     
NV       5        5         10.1    2.77%    98.0%    52.9     45.4     48.1     50.7     0.0%     Bush yes
NH       4        4         13.6    2.94%    100%     57.0     42.1     50.4     49.0     0.0%     Bush yes
                                                                                                         
NJ       15       15         9.7    3.24%    100%     57.8     41.4     52.9     46.3     0.2%     Bush yes
NM       5        5          7.8    2.88%    97.6%    52.9     45.9     49.0     49.8     0.4%     Bush yes
NY       31       31        11.4    3.21%    100%     64.1     34.4     58.4     40.1     0.0%     Bush yes
NC       15       15        11.3    2.73%    28.3%    49.2     50.4     43.6     56.0     0.0%     Bush yes
ND       3        -         -5.2    4.72%    0.0%     32.9     65.5     35.5     62.9     14.0%    Kerry    
                                                                                                         
OH       20       20        10.9    2.87%    99.8%    54.2     45.4     48.7     50.8     0.0%     Bush yes
OK       7        -         -1.9    3.09%    0.0%     33.5     66.5     34.4     65.6     27.8%    Kerry    
OR       7        7          0.0    3.90%    74.3%    51.3     47.2     51.6     47.4     44.0%    Kerry    
PA       21       21         8.8    2.89%    100%     55.3     44.0     51.0     48.5     0.2%     Bush yes
RI       4        4          4.7    4.29%    100%     61.8     36.3     59.6     38.8     15.5%    Bush     
                                                                                                         
SC       8        -         10.0    3.05%    0.4%     45.9     53.0     41.0     58.1     0.1%     Bush yes
SD       3        -         -4.2    3.19%    0.0%     36.3     62.0     38.4     59.9     9.4%     Kerry    
TN       11       -          0.5    2.98%    0.0%     42.8     56.5     42.5     56.8     42.8%    Bush     
TX       34       -          4.8    3.01%    0.0%     40.6     58.7     38.2     61.1     6.1%     Bush     
UT       5        -          6.4    4.13%    0.0%     29.2     68.3     26.0     71.6     6.6%     Bush     
                                                                                                         
VT       3        3         15.0    4.62%    100%     66.4     31.3     59.2     39.0     0.1%     Bush yes
VA       13       -          7.9    3.37%    36.3%    49.4     49.7     45.6     53.8     1.3%     Bush yes
WA       11       11         8.4    2.75%    100%     57.0     41.4     52.9     45.7     0.2%     Bush yes
WV       5        -         -5.8    3.06%    0.0%     40.3     59.0     43.2     56.1     3.1%     Kerry    
WI       10       10         4.7    2.70%    92.7%    52.0     47.0     49.8     49.4     5.2%     Bush     
WY       3        -          4.3    4.55%    0.0%     31.2     66.7     29.1     69.0     18.6%    Bush                                      
 
 

_____________________________________________________________________

 
State Projections vs. Composite (12:22am) Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote Analysis
 
Kerry’s projected 2-party national vote share (before undecided voter allocation) was 
1) 50.52%, based on the Election Model (1992-2000 average state turnout weights).
2) 50.37%, based on recorded 2004 state vote weights
3) 51.80% assuming 75% UVA to Kerry 
 
The weighted average 2-party state vote shares (2004 recorded vote: 121.056mm):
 Projected : 50.37% = 60979 /121056
 Exit Poll   : 50.51% = 61144 /121056
 Actual      : 48.76% = 59028 /121056
 
- Based on the pre-election polls, 41 out of 51 states deviated to Bush.
- Based on the 12:22am exit polls, 43 out of 51 states deviated to Bush.
 

If Kerry won 60% of the undecided (UVA) vote, the average deviation was 0.37% between pre-election and exit poll.

This is the relationship between UVA and the average deviation:

 UVA           50     55     60     67     75                
 Dev         0.26 -0.05 -0.37 -0.81 -1.31
 
Approximately 2/3 of the deviations were distributed between -1% and +1%            
 
-  One individual led both the pre-election and exit poll in 39 states.
-  One individual led both polls in 15 of 17 battleground states. 
 
 - The pre-election vote shares differed from the exit poll vote shares by less than 1% in 15 states;  
    less than 2% in 29 states; less than 3% in 32 states; less than 4% in 42 states.
 

State exit poll red-shift probabilities are close to zero, even assuming a constant conservative 3.0% MoE

The exit poll margin of error (MoE) was exceeded in 16 states – all in favor of Bush. The odds: 1 in 19 trillion.

 
Kerry vote shares:
Pre-Elect: pre-election weighted state poll
Exit Poll: weighted state exit poll (12:22am)
 
Pre/Actual: pre-election poll as a percent of actual 
Exit/Actual: exit poll as a percent of actual
 
Probability of discrepancy between
 Pre: pre-election poll and actual vote 
 Exit: exit poll and actual vote
 
Favor:  pre-election and exit poll vote shift to (B)ush or (K)erry
 
 
         2-pty    Pre-     Exit     Actual   Pre-     Exit     Actual   Pre/   Exit/      -Probability-   Favor 
Kerry    Vote    Elect    Poll     Vote     Elect    Poll     Vote    Actual  Actual       Pre     Exit    Pre Exit
WtdMean  121056   50.37%   50.51%   48.76%  60979    61144    59028    103.3% 103.6%      14.1%    12.2%   41B 43B
Mean       -      48.57%   48.84%   47.09%    -        -        -      103.4% 103.8%             
Median     -      50.00%   49.07%   47.48%    -        -        -      102.7% 103.9%    
 
AK       302      34.48%   40.14%   36.77%   104      121      111      94%      109%      6.3%    1.2%     K  B
AL       1870     40.63%   41.08%   37.10%   760      768      694      109%     111%      0.9%    0.4%     B  B
AR       1043     50.00%   46.60%   45.07%   522      486      470      111%     103%      0.1%    15.4%    B  B
AZ       1998     47.37%   46.93%   44.72%   946      938      894      106%     105%      3.9%    7.1%     B  B
CA       12255    53.85%   55.73%   55.04%   6599     6830     6745     98%      101%     21.3%    32.3%    K  B
 
CO       2103     49.47%   49.07%   47.63%   1040     1032     1002     104%     103%     11.0%    16.9%    B  B
CT       1551     55.32%   58.47%   55.27%   858      907      857      100%     106%     48.8%    1.6%     B  B
DC       224      87.64%   91.63%   90.52%   197      205      203      97%      101%      2.7%    22.9%    K  B
DE       372      54.22%   58.44%   53.83%   202      217      200      101%     109%     39.9%    0.1%     B  B
FL       7548     51.55%   49.93%   47.48%   3891     3769     3584     109%     105%      0.3%    5.1%     B  B
 
GA       3280     44.68%   43.11%   41.65%   1466     1414     1366     107%     104%      2.2%    16.5%    B  B
HI       426      50.00%   53.32%   54.40%   213      227      232      92%      98%       0.2%    23.5%    K  K
IA       1494     53.19%   50.67%   49.66%   795      757      742      107%     102%      0.9%    25.0%    B  B
ID       590      33.71%   33.33%   30.68%   199      197      181      110%     109%      2.2%    3.8%     B  B
IL       5239     56.25%   57.13%   55.21%   2947     2993     2892     102%     103%     24.3%    10.0%    B  B
 
IN       2448     40.21%   40.97%   39.58%   984      1003     969      102%     104%     33.7%    17.7%    B  B
KS       1171     38.14%   34.60%   37.13%   447      405      435      103%     93%      25.0%    4.6%     B  K
KY       1782     41.05%   40.76%   39.99%   732      726      713      103%     102%     24.0%    30.6%    B  B
LA       1922     45.45%   44.50%   42.67%   874      855      820      107%     104%      3.2%    11.2%    B  B
MA       2875     70.33%   66.46%   62.74%   2022     1911     1804     112%     106%      0.0%    0.7%     B  B
 
MD       2359     55.67%   57.04%   56.57%   1313     1346     1334     98%      101%     27.5%    37.6%    K  B
ME       727      56.18%   54.83%   54.58%   408      399      397      103%     100%     14.4%    43.4%    B  B
MI       4793     53.61%   52.55%   51.73%   2569     2519     2479     104%     102%     10.5%    29.1%    B  B
MN       2792     54.17%   54.61%   51.76%   1512     1525     1445     105%     106%      5.4%    2.9%     B  B
MO       2715     47.31%   47.47%   46.38%   1284     1289     1259     102%     102%     26.7%    23.3%    B  B
 
MS       1130     45.16%   43.20%   40.49%   511      488      458      112%     107%      0.1%    3.6%     B  B
MT       440      38.71%   39.28%   39.50%   170      173      174      98%      99%      70.1%    44.2%    K  K
NC       3487     48.45%   47.31%   43.76%   1690     1650     1526     111%     108%      0.1%    0.9%     B  B
ND       308      38.89%   33.58%   36.09%   120      103      111      108%     93%       3.1%    4.7%     B  K
NE       767      34.41%   36.54%   33.15%   264      280      254      104%     110%     20.1%    1.2%     B  B
 
NH       672      50.00%   55.49%   50.69%   336      373      341      99%      109%     32.3%    0.1%     K  B
NJ       3581     54.35%   56.13%   53.37%   1946     2010     1911     102%     105%     25.7%    3.3%     B  B
NM       748      50.00%   51.34%   49.60%   374      384      371      101%     104%     39.5%    12.3%    B  B
NV       816      50.00%   50.66%   48.68%   408      413      397      103%     104%     19.0%    9.4%     B  B
NY       7277     59.38%   63.97%   59.29%   4321     4655     4314     100%     108%     47.7%    0.1%     B  B
 
OH       5599     51.55%   52.06%   48.94%   2886     2915     2740     105%     106%      4.1%    1.9%     B  B
OK       1464     31.46%   34.73%   34.43%   461      508      504      91%      101%      2.4%    42.1%    K  B
OR       1810     53.19%   51.22%   52.11%   963      927      943      102%     98%      23.5%    27.8%    B  K
PA       5732     52.63%   54.41%   51.26%   3017     3119     2938     103%     106%     18.0%    1.8%     B  B
RI       429      60.87%   64.24%   60.58%   261      275      260      100%     106%     42.3%    0.7%     B  B
 
SC       1600     43.30%   45.78%   41.36%   693      732      662      105%     111%      9.9%    0.2%     B  B
SD       382      44.68%   37.42%   39.09%   171      143      149      114%     96%       0.0%    13.3%    B  K
TN       2421     48.98%   41.15%   42.81%   1186     996      1036     114%     96%       0.0%    13.4%    B  K
TX       7360     38.54%   36.84%   38.49%   2837     2711     2833     100%     96%      48.6%    13.5%    B  K
UT       905      25.81%   29.93%   26.65%   234      271      241      97%      112%     28.6%    1.4%     K  B
 
VA       3172     47.96%   47.96%   45.87%   1521     1521     1455     105%     105%      8.1%    8.1%     B  B
VT       305      56.99%   65.69%   60.30%   174      201      184      95%      109%      1.4%    0.0%     K  B
WA       2815     54.17%   55.07%   53.65%   1525     1550     1510     101%     103%     36.4%    17.2%    B  B
WI       2968     53.68%   50.21%   50.19%   1593     1490     1490     107%     100%      1.0%    49.4%    B  B
WV       750      48.42%   45.19%   43.52%   363      339      327      111%     104%      0.1%    13.2%    B  B
WY       238      30.85%   32.07%   29.69%   74       76       71       104%     108%     21.9%    5.6%     B  B

_____________________________________________________________________

                                                                                             

 

 

Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System - January 19, 2005

Glossary of Terms

 

Absentee/Early Voter Telephone Surveys

Absentee/Early Voter Telephone Surveys were conducted in 13 states that had a high proportion of absentee/early voters. The estimates from these surveys were used to adjust the exit poll estimates from Election Day to account for the absentee/early voters who can not be interviewed at the polling location on Election Day. The questionnaire responses in these surveys were also incorporated in the survey analysis in the 13 state surveys and the national survey.

 

Age-Race-Sex adjustment

An Age-Race-Sex adjustment is performed based upon the refusals and misses from sample voters that are observed by the interviewers at each polling location. The age, race and gender compositions in the exit poll results are adjusted to account for the differing completion rates of these demographic groups.

 

Best Survey Estimate

The Best Survey Estimate is the computation with the lowest SEDF (Standard Error on the Difference) using only the exit poll tallies.

 

Completion Rate

The Completion Rate is the percentage of sample voters who agree to fill out the questionnaire. The rate equals completed questionnaires divided by completed questionnaires plus refusals plus missed voters who were in the sample.

 

Composite Estimate

The Composite Estimate is a weighted average of the Prior Estimate and the Best Survey Estimate. The Composite Estimate is most often the estimate used in the survey weighting process to create the exit poll analysis data on Election Day before the actual vote is reported.

 

County Model                          

The County Model is a set of computations based upon the county data that is being reported by the Associated Press.

 

Critical Value (Crit) 

The t-score is the ratio of the estimated difference between the two leading candidates and the standard error on the difference (SEDF). A critical value occurs when this ratio is 2.6 or more. The critical value increases when there are 40 or fewer sample precincts. This critical value is the first of several criteria for a “Call Status.” It means there is a .995 statistical probability that the leader is the winner. It only accounts for sampling error in the estimate. It does not account for other possible sources of error or statistical bias.

  

Cross Survey                        

Cross Survey is a procedure through which state surveys are combined to form estimates of survey characteristics. When state surveys are combined in this way, the respondent weights are adjusted so that each state survey is represented in its correct proportion of the total. The Cross Survey is different from the National Survey. The Cross Survey only includes questions common to the state surveys.

       

Decision Screens

These screens provide the details for the 14 different estimates that are computed for each Election Day race. In addition, these screens include details on estimated candidate votes with and without exit poll results, with and without absentee votes factored in, sampling errors for all estimates, estimates by stratum, and quality control information.

         

Integrated Model

The Integrated Model is a computation based upon a composite of the estimates from the Sample Precinct Model and the County Model.

 

Interviewing Rate

Each exit poll interviewer is assigned an Interviewing Rate that is used to select sample voters as they leave the polling place. The interviewing rate is defined as the number of voters that the interviewer counts between sample voters. An interviewing rate of “1” means that the interviewer will approach every voter; an interviewing rate of “10” means that the interviewer will approach every 10th voter.

            

Miss Rate

The Miss Rate is the percentage of voters designated to be in the sample that are missed by the interviewer because the interviewer could not physically approach the voter and ask them to fill out a questionnaire.

    

National Exit Poll (National Survey)

The National Exit Poll is based upon the results from a national sample of 250 polling locations. These 250 locations are a sub-sample of the 1,480 locations that are in the state samples. In addition, 500 telephone interviews of absentee/early voters in 13 states with a high proportion of absentee/early voters were included in the National Exit Poll results. There were four different versions of the national exit poll questionnaire. One–fourth of the sample at every national exit poll location was asked to complete each version of the national questionnaire.

            

Prior Estimate

Prior Estimates are based upon pre-election surveys conducted in each state. The Prior Estimate is used in combination with the Best Survey Estimate on Election Day to create a Composite Estimate.

            

Projections           

A projection is based on an estimate of the vote. The first of many requirements for projecting a winner is that the leading candidate is estimated to be ahead of his or her nearest challenger by a margin that is sufficiently larger than the standard error. That margin would have to be 2.6 (at a minimum) times the standard error on the difference between the two candidates. The probability of incorrectly concluding that the leading candidate is ahead is .005.

            

Refusal Rate

The Refusal Rate is the percentage of sampled voters who are approached by the interviewer, but who refuse to fill out the questionnaire.

  

Sample Precinct Model

The Sample Precinct Model is a set of computations under different assumptions that use either precinct level exit poll results or actual vote returns. The exit poll results and actual vote returns may be used separately or in combination.

 

Standard Error on the Difference (SEDF)

We select only one sample of precincts per state out of the many different samples that could have been selected. Each possible sample will have a slightly different estimate of the election result. A standard error is a measure of the variation in all those possible results. While most samples have results that are close to the average for all the samples, it is theoretically possible that the one sample we selected differs from the overall average. The standard error tells us the likelihood of having a sample that differs from the overall average by given amounts. For making projections we are interested in the Standard Error on the Difference (SEDF). It is computed on the difference between the top two candidates for each estimate.

 

Survey Call 1, 2, 3           

Exit poll interviewers call in the results of their interviews to our telephone centers three times during Election Day. Call1 is shortly before noon local time. Call 2 is in the late afternoon. Call 3 is during the last hour before the time the polls close. The exit poll is not complete until the Call 3 interviews are used in the computations.

            

Survey Weighting

Survey Weighting is the process by which the respondents in each survey are weighted for the exit poll analysis. This weighting process takes into account the probabilities of selection of the precinct and the sample voters within each sample precinct, the age-race-sex adjustment for non-interviews, the best estimate of the candidate vote percentages from each geographic region, and if applicable the portion of the vote that is being cast by absentee/early voters.

 

t-score          

For the value of the “t-score” see the definition of Critical Value. The “t” refers to a distribution of probabilities for these scores for small samples.

  

Within Precinct Error

Within Precinct Error (WPE) is an average difference between the percentage margin for the leading candidates in the exit poll and the actual vote for all sample precincts in a state. The signed WPE gives the direction of this error; in this report a negative WPE represents a Bush overstatement in the exit poll and a positive WPE represents a Republican overstatement in the exit poll. The absolute WPE represents the total error.          

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Conservative Scenarios

 
The purpose of this analysis is to illustrate why Kerry won by assuming the following conservative assumptions:

 

1) All 105.4m Election 2000 voters turned out to vote in 2004

2) All Election 2004 votes cast were counted and equal to the 122.3m recorded.

3) All Gore 2000 voters voted for Kerry; all Bush 2000 voters voted for Bush in 2004.

4) Kerry won 64% of returning Nader/other voters; Bush 17%; Nader/others 19%.
5) Kerry won 57% of new voters (did not vote in 2000); Bush 41%; Nader/others 2%.

 

1)  is impossible, since some 2000 voters died and others did not vote in 2004,

2)  is not true, since millions of votes are uncounted in every election,

3)  is not true, since a percentage of Gore and Bush voters defected,

4)  is a plausible 12:22am National Exit Poll result,

5 ) is a plausible 12:22am NEP result.

 

Based on these assumptions, a simple calculation shows that Kerry won by 63-58m with 51.64% of the vote:

Kerry    =      100% of Gore voters + 64% of Nader/other voters + 57% of New voters

63,153   =     51,003 + 2,531 + 9,619


This result approximated Kerry’s 51.81% national share based on the unadjusted state exit polls (WPE method). It also closely matched the 2004 Election Model : The Monte Carlo simulation projected that Kerry would capture 51.80% of the two-party vote (assuming he won 75% of late undecided voters) and gain 337 electoral votes (based on the average of 5000 election trials).

 

Let’s look at the effects of changes in assumptions 4 ad 5 on the Kerry vote.

 

Scenario Analysis

 

Base Case:

Kerry captures 57% of new voters and 64% of returning Nader/other 3rd party voters.

Kerry wins by 5.1m votes, 51.64% vote share and 337 Electoral votes.

 

Best Case:

Kerry captures 59% of new voters and 66% of returning Nader/other 3rd party voters.

Kerry wins by 5.9m votes, 51.98% and 348 EV

 

Worst Case:

Kerry captures 55% of new voters and 62% of returning Nader/other 3rd party voters.

Kerry wins by 4.2m votes, 51.30% and 316 EV

 

Now we will determine the True Vote by using plausible assumptions for 1,2 and 3 above.

 

The True Vote

 

a) Approximately 5m Election 2000 voters died; another 5m did not vote, assuming 95% turnout.
Therefore, there were actually 27m new voters (the net increase was 17m).

The additional 10m new voters increased Kerry's margin by 1.5m.

b) The NEP determined that 8% of Gore voters and 10% of Bush voters defected.
The net defection increased Kerry's margin by 1.0 million votes.

c) According to the U.S. Census, there were 3.4 million uncounted votes.
The majority (70-80%) were Kerry votes, increasing his margin by 1.5 million votes.

Adding the total increase in Kerry’s margin, the TrueVote was: Kerry 67- Bush 57- Other 1.7

Kerry’s 67m  = 63 + 1.5  + 1.0  + 1.5 

 

 2000

(Votes in thousands)

Recorded      Gore   Bush     Nader   Other   Margin

105,417       51,003 50,460   2,883   1,070   543

              48.38% 47.87%   2.73%   1.02%   0.52%

 

2004

Recorded      Kerry   Bush    Nader   Other   Margin

122,293       59,028 62,040   465     758     3,012

              48.27% 50.73%   0.38%   0.62%   2.46%

 

2000

Nader/Other vote allocation                           

Recorded      Kerry   Bush    Nader   Other   Margin

3,953         2,530   672    276     474     1,858

Exit Poll       64%   17%    7%      12%     47%

 

2004

New Voter allocation                           

Recorded      Kerry   Bush    Nader   Other   Margin

16,876        9,619   6,919   118     219     2,700

Exit Poll     57%     41%    0.7%    1.3%    16%

 

Adjusted True Vote                             

Adjusted      Kerry    Bush    Nader   Other   Margin

122,293       63,153   58,051   394    693     5,102

Share         51.64%   47.47%   0.32%  0.57%   4.17%

 

 

 

Sensitivity Analysis                                                  

 

         Kerry % of New Voters                 

        55%     56%    57%    58%    59%

Kerry%

Other         Vote Share                

62%    51.30% 51.44% 51.58% 51.71% 51.85%

63%    51.33% 51.47% 51.61% 51.75% 51.88%

64%    51.36% 51.50% 51.64% 51.78% 51.92%

65%    51.40% 51.54% 51.67% 51.81% 51.95%

66%    51.43% 51.57% 51.71% 51.84% 51.98%

 

               Electoral Vote                        
62%      316   316    337    337    348 
63%      316   326    337    337    348 
64%      316   337    337    348    348 
65%      316   337    337    348    348 

66%      316   337    337    348    348        

 

 

              Vote Margin         

62%    4,268 4,606 4,943 5,281 5,619

63%    4,347 4,685 5,023 5,360 5,698

64%    4,427 4,764 5,102 5,439 5,777

65%    4,506 4,843 5,181 5,518 5,856

66%    4,585 4,922 5,260 5,597 5,935

 

 

 

Base Case Scenario

 

              2000 Recorded                      2004 Recorded               2004 Adjusted

State         Gore   Bush   Nader Other          Kerry Bush   Other EV      Kerry   Bush  Nader Other               

Total         48.38% 47.87% 2.73% 1.02%         48.27% 50.73% 1.00% 337     51.64% 47.47% 0.32% 0.57%          

                                                                                                                        

Alabama       41.6%  56.5%  1.1%   0.9%          36.8%  62.5%  0.7%          44.4%  55.0%  0.20%  0.35%          

Alaska        27.7%  58.6%  10.1%  3.7%          35.5%  61.1%  3.4%          38.2%  59.2%  0.94%  1.62%          

Arizona       44.7%  51.0%  3.0%   1.4%          44.4%  54.9%  0.7%   10     49.7%  49.2%  0.40%  0.71%          

Arkansas      45.9%  51.3%  1.5%   1.4%          44.6%  54.3%  1.2%          48.9%  50.4%  0.26%  0.46%          

California    53.5%  41.7%  3.8%   1.1%          54.3%  44.4%  1.3%   55     56.6%  42.3%  0.38%  0.67%          

                                                                                                                        

Colorado      42.4%  50.8%  5.3%   1.6%          47.0%  51.7%  1.3%          48.6%  49.9%  0.52%  0.91%          

Connecticut   55.9%  38.4%  4.4%   1.2%          54.3%  44.0%  1.7%   7      59.3%  39.5%  0.42%  0.72%          

Delaware      55.0%  41.9%  2.5%   0.6%          53.4%  45.8%  0.9%   3      57.0%  42.3%  0.28%  0.49%          

D. C.         85.2%  9.0%   5.2%   0.7%          89.2%  9.3%   1.5%   3      85.3%  13.5%  0.44%  0.77%          

Florida       48.8%  48.9%  1.6%   0.7%          47.1%  52.1%  0.8%   27     51.8%  47.5%  0.28%  0.50%          

                                                                                                                       

Georgia       43.0%  54.7%  0.5%   1.8%          41.4%  58.0%  0.7%          47.2%  52.1%  0.28%  0.50%          

Hawaii        55.8%  37.5%  5.9%   0.9%          54.0%  45.3%  0.7%   4      59.7%  38.9%  0.50%  0.88%        

Idaho         27.6%  67.2%  2.5%   2.7%          30.3%  68.4%  1.4%          35.2%  63.7%  0.42%  0.73%          

Illinois      54.6%  42.6%  2.2%   0.6%          54.8%  44.5%  0.7%   21     56.5%  42.9%  0.25%  0.44%          

Indiana       41.0%  56.7%  0.8%   1.5%          39.3%  59.9%  0.8%          44.1%  55.3%  0.22%  0.39%          

                                                                                                                 

Iowa          48.5%  48.2%  2.2%   1.0%          49.2%  49.9%  0.9%   7      51.4%  47.8%  0.29%  0.50%          

Kansas        37.2%  58.0%  3.4%   1.4%          36.6%  62.0%  1.4%          41.9%  57.1%  0.37%  0.64%          

Kentucky      41.4%  56.5%  1.5%   0.6%          39.7%  59.6%  0.8%          44.7%  54.6%  0.23%  0.40%          

Louisiana     44.9%  52.6%  1.2%   1.4%          42.2%  56.7%  1.1%          47.5%  51.9%  0.23%  0.40%          

Maine         49.1%  44.0%  5.7%   1.3%          53.6%  44.6%  1.9%   4      53.9%  44.7%  0.51%  0.89%          

                                                                                                                 

Maryland      56.6%  40.2%  2.7%   0.6%          55.9%  42.9%  1.2%   10     58.4%  40.8%  0.30%  0.53%          

Massachusetts 59.8%  32.5%  6.4%   1.3%          61.9%  36.8%  1.3%   12     64.2%  34.3%  0.55%  0.95%          

Michigan      51.3%  46.1%  2.0%   0.6%          51.2%  47.8%  1.0%   17     53.4%  45.9%  0.25%  0.43%          

Minnesota     47.9%  45.5%  5.2%   1.4%          51.1%  47.6%  1.3%   10     52.8%  45.8%  0.49%  0.86%          

Mississippi   40.7%  57.6%  0.8%   0.9%          39.8%  59.4%  0.8%          43.9%  55.6%  0.20%  0.35%          

                                                                                                                       

Missouri      47.1%  50.4%  1.6%   0.9%          46.1%  53.3%  0.6%   11     49.8%  49.5%  0.25%  0.44%          

Montana       33.4%  58.4%  6.0%   2.3%          38.6%  59.1%  2.4%          40.2%  58.2%  0.58%  1.01%          

Nebraska      33.3%  62.3%  3.5%   1.0%          32.7%  65.9%  1.4%          38.3%  60.7%  0.36%  0.62%          

Nevada        46.0%  49.5%  2.5%   2.0%          47.9%  50.5%  1.7%   5      51.0%  47.8%  0.42%  0.74%          

New Hampshire 46.8% 48.1%  3.9%   1.2%          50.2%  48.9%  0.9%   4      51.2%  47.7%  0.41%  0.72%          

                                                                                                                      

New Jersey    56.1%  40.3%  3.0%   0.6%          52.9%  46.2%  0.8%   15     58.3%  40.9%  0.30%  0.53%          

New Mexico    47.9%  47.9%  3.6%   0.7%          49.1%  49.8%  1.1%   5      52.0%  47.0%  0.38%  0.67%          

New York      60.2%  35.2%  3.6%   1.0%          58.4%  40.1%  1.5%   31     62.7%  36.4%  0.35%  0.61%          

North Carolina 43.2% 56.0%  0.0%   0.8%          43.6%  56.0%  0.4%          45.9%  53.6%  0.16%  0.30%          

North Dakota  33.1%  60.7%  3.3%   3.0%          35.5%  62.9%  1.6%          38.6%  60.1%  0.46%  0.80%          

                                                                                                                

Ohio          46.5%  50.0%  2.5%   1.1%          48.7%  50.8%  0.5%   20     50.1%  49.0%  0.32%  0.57%          

Oklahoma      38.4%  60.3%  0.0%   1.3%          34.4%  65.6%  0.0%          42.0%  57.5%  0.18%  0.33%          

Oregon        47.0%  46.5%  5.0%   1.5%          51.4%  47.2%  1.5%   7      52.1%  46.5%  0.50%  0.87%          

Pennsylvania  50.6%  46.4%  2.1%   0.9%          50.9%  48.4%  0.7%   21     53.2%  46.1%  0.28%  0.50%          

Rhode Island  61.0%  31.9%  6.1%   1.0%          59.4%  38.7%  1.9%   4      65.0%  33.6%  0.51%  0.88%          

                                                                                                                 

South Carolina 40.9% 56.8%  1.5%   0.8%          40.9%  58.0%  1.1%          44.5%  54.9%  0.24%  0.42%          

South Dakota  37.6%  60.3%  0.0%   2.1%          38.4%  59.9%  1.7%          42.3%  57.0%  0.25%  0.45%          

Tennessee     47.3%  51.2%  1.0%   0.6%          42.5%  56.8%  0.7%          49.6%  49.9%  0.20%  0.35%          

Texas         38.0%  59.3%  2.2%   0.6%          38.2%  61.1%  0.7%          42.1%  57.2%  0.26%  0.46%          

Utah          26.3%  66.8%  4.7%   2.2%          26.0%  71.5%  2.5%          35.2%  63.4%  0.52%  0.90%          

                                                                                                                 

Vermont       50.6%  40.7%  6.9%   1.8%          58.9%  38.8%  2.3%   3      56.2%  42.1%  0.61%  1.06%          

Virginia      44.4%  52.5%  2.2%   0.9%          45.5%  53.7%  0.8%          47.9%  51.3%  0.29%  0.50%          

Washington    50.1%  44.6%  4.1%   1.2%          52.8%  45.6%  1.5%   11     54.0%  44.9%  0.41%  0.72%          

West Virginia 45.6%  51.9%  1.7%   0.8%          43.2%  56.1%  0.7%          48.6%  50.7%  0.25%  0.44%          

Wisconsin     47.8%  47.6%  3.6%   0.9%          49.7%  49.3%  1.0%   10     51.6%  47.4%  0.37%  0.65%          

Wyoming       27.7%  67.8%  2.1%   2.4%          29.1%  68.9%  2.1%          33.3%  65.7%  0.36%  0.62%          

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 
Regional Analysis
 
2004 State Exit Poll Discrepancies by Time Zone and Region
Data Source: Edison-Mitofsky 2004 Exit Poll Summary Report
 

Kerry's aggregate state exit poll (unadjusted) share was 51.8% (325 electoral votes).

The Margin of Error was exceeded in 29 of 50 states for Bush.

The MoE was exceeded in only one state (WV) for Kerry.

 

States in which MoE was exceeded:
Time Zone             Region
East       15 of 21   East     9 of 12
Central     7 of 16   MidW     6 of 12
Mountain    4 of 8    South    7 of 13
Pacific     3 of 5    West     7 of 13
 

The final state and national exit poll vote shares were adjusted to match the recorded vote.  The "pristine" unadjusted exit poll results, as measured by the average state WPE (Within Precinct Error), morphed to the Composite (weighted average of Pre-election and Best Survey estimates) and then to the Final which was forced to match the Recorded vote. WPE is the difference in margin from exit poll to vote tally.

 

Exit Poll               Kerry Vote Share

State aggregate   51.8% (unadjusted, based on average WPE)

NEP Location      51.7   (WPE-adjusted state aggregate)

NEP Region        50.5   (12:22am adjusted Composite)

NEP Region        48.2   (FINAL matched to recorded vote)

 

 
State Exit Poll Weighted- Unadjusted Vote shares based on WPE
 
REGION   Vote     Weight Kerry     Bush   Other
East     27.18    22.2%    60.3%    39.0%   0.7%
Midwest  30.94    25.3%    51.4%    47.8%   0.8%
South    39.32    32.2%    44.9%    54.4%   0.7%
West     24.84    20.3%    54.2%    44.4%   1.4%
 
Total             100%    51.8%    47.3%   0.9%
Votes    122.3    122.3   63.3     57.8    1.2 
 
 
 
National Exit Poll 
 Unadjusted Vote Shares 
(based on location average WPE)
 
LOCATION         Votes    Mix      Kerry    Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other    Margin
Big City          15.9    13%      64.95%   35.05%   0%      10.3     5.6      0.0      4.6      
Small City       22.0     18%      53.25%   44.75%   2%      11.7     9.9      0.4      1.9      
Suburbs          55.0     45%      51.05%   47.95%   1%      28.1     26.4     0.6      1.7      
Small Town        9.8     8%       50.45%   47.55%   2%      4.9      4.7      0.2      0.3      
Rural             19.6    16%      41.80%   57.20%   1%      8.2      11.2     0.2      -3.0     
                                                                                       
TOTAL            122.3    100%     51.7%    47.2%    1.1%     63.3     57.7     1.4      5.6      
 
 
Regional Popular and Electoral Vote (WPE based)
 
EV    Electoral vote
KEV   Kerry Electoral Vote (Exit Poll)
KE    Kerry Exit Poll Vote
KV    Kerry Recorded Vote
 
KEP   Kerry Exit Poll percent
KVP   Kerry Recorded Vote percent
WPE   Within Precinct Error
 
Diff = KE - KV
WPE  = 2*Diff
 
 
Unadjusted Regional Vote Shares 
(based on regional average WPE)
 
REGION         EV          Vote    Weight   WPE      KE       KV       KEP      KVP      KEV      
East           122        27,177   22.2%    9.21%    16,376   15,124   60.3%    55.7%    117      
Midwest        124        30,940   25.3%    5.96%    15,889   14,966   51.4%    48.4%    85       
South          168        39,324   32.2%    5.66%    17,662   16,550   44.9%    42.1%    27       
West           124        24,844   20.3%    8.18%    13,461   12,445   54.2%    50.1%    96       
 
Total          538        122,284  100.0%   7.04%    63,388   59,085   51.8%    48.3%    325
 
 
NEP Regional Demographic
(adjusted Composite and Final)
 
         12:22am Composite                                   2pm Final
REGION   Vote     Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other            Weight   Kerry    Bush     Other
East     26.91    22%      58%      41%      1%               22%      56%      43%      1%
Midwest  31.80    26%      50%      49%      1%               26%      48%      51%      1%
South    37.91    31%      44%      54%      2%               32%      42%      58%      0%
West     25.68    21%      53%      45%      2%               20%      50%      49%      1%
                                                                                       
Total            100%     50.53%   47.95%   1.52%            100%     48.24%   51.08%   0.68%
Votes    122.3    122.3    61.8     58.6     1.9              122.3    59.0     62.5     0.8
 
 
 
                                                                                       
STATE    KEV      Vote     WPE      KE       KV       BE       BV       Diff     MoE      Diff/MoE
 
EAST
CT*      7        1,578    15.7     62.2     54.3     36.1     43.9     7.85     3.27     2.40
DC       3        378      3.4      90.9     89.2     37.8     9.3      1.70     1.92     0.88
DE*      3        226      15.9     61.3     53.3     37.8     45.8     7.95     3.48     2.28
MA       12       2,912    5.8      64.8     61.9     33.9     36.8     2.90     3.10     0.93
MD*      10       2,386    8.1      60.0     55.9     38.9     42.9     4.05     3.07     1.32
 
ME       4        741      3.8      55.5     53.6     42.7     44.6     1.90     2.20     0.86
NH*      4        678      13.6     57.0     50.2     42.1     48.9     6.80     2.27     3.00
NJ*      15       3,611    9.7      57.8     52.9     41.4     46.2     4.85     2.49     1.94
NY*      31       7,391    11.4     64.1     58.4     34.4     40.1     5.70     2.47     2.31
PA*      21       5,770    8.8      55.3     50.9     44.0     48.4     4.40     2.22     1.98
 
RI       4        437      4.7      61.8     59.4     36.3     38.7     2.35     3.30     0.71
VT*      3        312      15.0     66.4     58.9     31.3     38.8     7.50     3.56     2.11
WV*              756      (5.8)    40.3     43.2     59.0     56.1     -2.90    2.35     -1.23
 
MIDWEST
IA       7        1,507    3.0      50.7     49.2     48.4     49.9     1.50     1.96     0.77
IL       21       5,276    4.4      57.0     54.8     42.3     44.5     2.20     2.60     0.85
IN               2,468    1.5      40.0     39.3     59.2     59.9     0.75     3.17     0.24
KS               1,187    1.7      37.5     36.6     61.2     62.0     0.85     3.65     0.23
MI*      17       4,839    6.3      54.4     51.2     44.7     47.8     3.15     1.98     1.59
 
MN*      10       2,829    9.3      55.7     51.1     43.0     47.6     4.65     2.09     2.22
MO*              2,731    5.8      49.0     46.1     50.4     53.3     2.90     2.11     1.38
ND               313      (5.2)    32.9     35.5     65.5     62.9     -2.60    3.63     -0.72
NE*              778      8.1      36.7     32.7     61.8     65.9     4.05     3.37     1.20
OH*      20       5,626    10.9     54.2     48.7     45.4     50.8     5.45     2.21     2.47
 
SD               388      (4.2)    36.3     38.4     62.0     59.9     -2.10    2.45     -0.86
WI*      10       2,997    4.7      52.0     49.7     47.0     49.3     2.35     2.08     1.13
 
SOUTH
AL*              1,883    11.3     42.5     36.8     56.8     62.5     5.65     3.57     1.58
AR               2,021    0.5      44.8     44.5     54.1     54.3     0.25     2.61     0.10
FL*      27      7,610    7.6      50.9     47.1     48.3     52.1     3.80     1.84     2.07
GA               3,301    2.2      42.5     41.4     56.9     58.0     1.10     2.48     0.44
KY               1,796    (0.1)    39.6     39.7     59.6     59.6     -0.05    3.00     -0.02
 
LA               1,943    3.8      44.1     42.2     54.8     56.7     1.90     2.38     0.80
MS*              1,139    11.3     45.8     40.2     53.4     59.0     5.65     3.44     1.64
NC*              3,501    11.3     49.2     43.6     50.4     56.0     5.65     2.10     2.69
OK               1,464    (1.9)    33.5     34.4     66.5     65.6     -0.95    2.38     -0.40
SC*              1,618    10.0     45.9     40.9     53.0     58.0     5.00     2.34     2.13
 
TN               2,437    0.5      42.8     42.5     56.5     56.8     0.25     2.29     0.11
TX*              7,411    4.8      40.6     38.2     58.7     61.1     2.40     2.31     1.04
VA*              3,199    7.9      49.4     45.5     49.7     53.7     3.95     2.59     1.53
 
WEST
AK*              313      9.6      40.3     35.5     56.3     61.1     4.80     3.18     1.51
AZ*              1,051    4.6      46.7     44.4     52.6     54.9     2.30     2.27     1.01
CA*      55      12,420   10.9     59.8     54.3     38.9     44.4     5.45     2.22     2.45
CO*      9       2,130    6.1      50.1     47.0     48.6     51.7     3.05     1.95     1.56
HI       4       429      4.7      56.4     54.0     42.9     45.3     2.35     4.38     0.54
 
ID               598      1.0      30.8     30.3     67.9     68.4     0.50     3.91     0.13
MT               451      (1.8)    37.7     38.6     60.0     59.1     -0.90    3.78     -0.24
NM*      5       756      7.8      52.9     49.0     45.9     49.8     3.90     2.22     1.76
NV*      5       830      10.1     52.9     47.9     45.4     50.5     5.05     2.13     2.37
OR       7       1,837    0.0      51.3     51.3     47.2     47.2     0.00     3.00     0.00
 
UT*              928      6.4      29.2     26.0     68.3     71.5     3.20     3.18     1.01
WA*      11      2,859    8.4      57.0     52.8     41.4     45.6     4.20     2.12     1.98
WY               243      4.3      31.2     29.1     66.7     68.9     2.15     3.50     0.61
 
_________________________________________________________________________________
 
Composite State Exit Polls (12:22am)
 
Eastern:
All 21 states (and DC) deviated to Bush by an average of 2.80%; the odds: 1 in 4.2 million.
12 deviated beyond the margin of error; Probability: 1 in 32 trillion.
Ohio and Florida flipped from Kerry to Bush.
 
Central:
11 of 16 states deviated to Bush by an average of 0.82%; the odds: 1 in 10
3 deviated beyond the margin of error; Probability: 1 in 146
Iowa flipped from Kerry to Bush
 
Mountain:
7 of 8 states deviated to Bush by an average of 1.86%; the odds: 1 in 28
None deviated beyond the margin of error.
Nevada and New Mexico flipped from Kerry to Bush.
 
Pacific:
3 of 5 states deviated to Bush by an average of 0.83%; the odds: 1 in 2
1 deviated beyond the margin of error; Probability: 1 in 8 
 
 
         Poll     Poll     Std      Exit     Final    Vote     Dev      Prob     Dev      Dev/     Dev/         Dev>     Bush
         Size     MoE      Dev      Poll     Vote     Dev      Prob     1 in     Favor    Std      MoE         MoE      Flip
                                                                                                         16       5           
EASTERN
NH       1849     2.33%    1.19%    55.50    50.68    -4.81%   0.00%    39823    Bush     -4.05    2.07         yes      
NY       1452     2.62%    1.34%    63.97    58.79    -5.17%   0.01%    17833    Bush     -3.86    1.97         yes      
SC       1735     2.40%    1.22%    45.79    41.31    -4.48%   0.01%    7851     Bush     -3.66    1.87         yes      
NC       2167     2.15%    1.10%    47.31    43.72    -3.60%   0.05%    1939     Bush     -3.28    1.67         yes      
OH       1963     2.26%    1.15%    52.06    48.75    -3.31%   0.20%    495      Bush     -2.88    1.47         yes      yes
 
PA       1930     2.28%    1.16%    54.41    51.13    -3.28%   0.24%    420      Bush     -2.82    1.44         yes      
VT       685      3.82%    1.95%    65.69    60.34    -5.35%   0.30%    330      Bush     -2.74    1.40         yes      
FL       2846     1.87%    0.96%    49.93    47.47    -2.46%   0.50%    199      Bush     -2.57    1.31         yes      yes
DE       770      3.60%    1.84%    58.44    53.82    -4.62%   0.60%    167      Bush     -2.51    1.28         yes      
NJ       1520     2.56%    1.31%    56.13    53.13    -3.00%   1.10%    91       Bush     -2.29    1.17         yes      
 
MA       889      3.35%    1.71%    66.46    62.70    -3.76%   1.40%    72       Bush     -2.20    1.12         yes      
RI       809      3.52%    1.79%    64.24    60.48    -3.76%   1.82%    55       Bush     -2.09    1.07         yes      
CT       872      3.39%    1.73%    58.47    55.24    -3.24%   3.05%    33       Bush     -1.87    0.96       
VA       1431     2.64%    1.35%    47.96    45.65    -2.31%   4.34%    23       Bush     -1.71    0.87       
WV       1722     2.41%    1.23%    45.19    43.48    -1.72%   8.13%    12       Bush     -1.40    0.71       
 
GA       1536     2.55%    1.30%    43.11    41.58    -1.53%   12.02%   8        Bush     -1.17    0.60       
IN       926      3.29%    1.68%    40.97    39.46    -1.51%   18.33%   5        Bush     -0.90    0.46       
MI       2452     2.02%    1.03%    52.55    51.73    -0.82%   21.39%   5        Bush     -0.79    0.40       
DC       795      3.55%    1.81%    91.63    90.63    -1.00%   29.01%   3        Bush     -0.55    0.28       
MD       1000     3.16%    1.61%    57.04    56.25    -0.79%   31.24%   3        Bush     -0.49    0.25       
 
KY       1034     3.11%    1.59%    40.76    39.99    -0.76%   31.57%   3        Bush     -0.48    0.24       
ME       1968     2.25%    1.15%    54.83    54.48    -0.36%   37.88%   3        Bush     -0.31    0.16       
                                                                                                
CENTRAL
MN       2178     2.14%    1.09%    54.61    51.76    -2.85%   0.46%    218      Bush     -2.61    1.33         yes      
NE       785      3.57%    1.82%    36.54    32.53    -4.01%   1.39%    72       Bush     -2.20    1.12         yes      
AL       730      3.70%    1.89%    41.08    37.08    -4.00%   1.70%    59       Bush     -2.12    1.08         yes      
MS       798      3.54%    1.81%    43.20    39.91    -3.30%   3.40%    29       Bush     -1.83    0.93       
AR       1402     2.67%    1.36%    46.93    44.74    -2.19%   5.39%    19       Bush     -1.61    0.82       
 
IL       1392     2.68%    1.37%    57.13    54.99    -2.14%   5.90%    17       Bush     -1.56    0.80       
LA       1669     2.45%    1.25%    44.50    42.63    -1.87%   6.73%    15       Bush     -1.50    0.76       
IA       2502     2.00%    1.02%    50.67    49.54    -1.13%   13.42%   7        Bush     -1.11    0.56              yes
MO       2158     2.15%    1.10%    47.48    46.33    -1.15%   14.80%   7        Bush     -1.05    0.53       
OK       1539     2.55%    1.30%    34.73    34.44    -0.29%   41.21%   2        Bush     -0.22    0.11       
 
WI       2223     2.12%    1.08%    50.21    50.20    -0.02%   49.45%   2        Bush     -0.01    0.01       
TN       1774     2.37%    1.21%    41.15    42.78    1.63%    8.96%    11       Kerry    1.34     0.69       
TX       1671     2.45%    1.25%    36.84    38.49    1.65%    9.28%    11       Kerry    1.32     0.68       
SD       1495     2.59%    1.32%    37.42    39.09    1.67%    10.27%   10       Kerry    1.27     0.65       
ND       649      3.93%    2.00%    33.58    36.09    2.51%    10.51%   10       Kerry    1.25     0.64       
 
KS       654      3.91%    2.00%    34.60    36.97    2.37%    11.76%   9        Kerry    1.19     0.61       
                                                                                                
MOUNTAIN
NV       2116     2.17%    1.11%    50.66    48.67    -1.99%   3.61%    28       Bush     -1.80    0.92              yes
CO       2515     1.99%    1.02%    49.07    47.35    -1.72%   4.52%    22       Bush     -1.69    0.86       
NM       1951     2.26%    1.16%    51.34    49.42    -1.93%   4.76%    21       Bush     -1.67    0.85              yes
UT       798      3.54%    1.81%    29.93    27.06    -2.87%   5.61%    18       Bush     -1.59    0.81       
AZ       1859     2.32%    1.18%    46.60    45.03    -1.57%   9.24%    11       Bush     -1.33    0.68       
 
ID       559      4.23%    2.16%    33.33    30.71    -2.63%   11.18%   9        Bush     -1.22    0.62       
WY       684      3.82%    1.95%    32.07    29.70    -2.37%   11.24%   9        Bush     -1.21    0.62       
MT       640      3.95%    2.02%    39.28    39.51    0.22%    45.60%   2        Kerry    0.11     0.06       
                                                                                                
PACIFIC
AK       910      3.31%    1.69%    40.14    36.17    -3.97%   0.94%    106      Bush     -2.35    1.20         yes      
WA       2123     2.17%    1.11%    55.07    53.60    -1.47%   9.25%    11       Bush     -1.33    0.68       
CA       1919     2.28%    1.16%    55.73    55.21    -0.53%   32.58%   3        Bush     -0.45    0.23       
OR       1064     3.07%    1.56%    51.22    51.97    0.75%    31.67%   3        Kerry    0.48     0.24       
HI       499      4.48%    2.28%    53.32    54.37    1.05%    32.24%   3        Kerry    0.46     0.24       
                                                                                                          
 
SUMMARY 
         Poll     Poll     Std      Exit     Final    Vote     Dev      Prob     Dev     Dev/     Dev/         Dev>     Bush
         Size     MoE      Dev      Poll     Vote     Dev      Prob     1 in     Favor    Std      MoE         MoE      Flip
Average  1443     2.85%    1.46%    48.84    47.00    -1.84%   10.34%   10       0        -1.33    0.83     16       5        
Median   1495     2.59%    1.32%    49.07    47.35    -1.93%   6.73%    15       0        -1.50    0.76       
 
                                                                                                
DEVIATIONS BY REGION      
East     1471     2.78%    1.42%    55.11    52.31    -2.80%   9.24%    3153     22       -2.03    1.04     12         2
Central  1476     2.80%    1.43%    43.17    42.35    -0.82%   12.16%   31       11       -0.59    0.71     3         1
Mountain 1390     3.04%    1.55%    41.54    39.68    -1.86%   11.97%   15       7        -1.30    0.68     0         2
Pacific  1303     3.06%    1.56%    51.10    50.26    -0.83%   21.34%   25       3        -0.64    0.52     1         0
                                                                                                         
DEVIATION PROBABILITIES BY REGION  
         No.     Over MOE  Probability:1 in   Bush   Probability:1 in                            
East     22       12       32 trillion        22     4.2 million                                 
Central  16       3        146                11     10
Mountain 8        0        1                  7      28
Pacific  5        1        8                  3       2
 

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Red-shift vs. Swing

 

Naysayers claimed that the raw exit poll data which have not been made public indicates that there was no tendency for Bush to do better in 2004 relative to 2000 (“swing”) than he did in the 2004 exit poll (“red-shift”).   They presented their analysis in a swing vs. red-shift scatter chart and concluded from the flat regression line that the exit poll discrepancies had little effect and therefore fraud was unlikely. But the analysis was not supported by the mathematics; there are an infinite number of scenarios which would invalidate the premise. And they were comparing apples to oranges; they did not adjust the 2000 recorded vote. According to the 2004 National Exit Poll, Kerry won 71% of returning Nader voters compared to 21% for Bush.  A similar split would have increased Gore’s margin by 1.4mm.  Assuming that 75% of approximately 3 million uncounted votes were for Gore, his margin increases by another 1.5m. When added to his recorded 540,000 vote majority, Gore’s adjusted margin becomes 3.4m.  And that does not consider the effects of vote-switching. Thanks to Ohio, we know a lot more about vote-switching than we did in 2000.  It’s very likely that Gore votes were switched to Bush.  If 1.5 m (3%) were switched, then his final adjusted margin is 6.4 million: 3.0 switched + 1.5 uncounted + 1.4 Nader + 0.54 recorded.

 

They never normalized the 2-party state vote shares in calculating “swing”. Assuming zero vote-switching from Gore to Bush in 2000, actual adjusted swing was 3.9%, recorded swing 2.0%; red-shift 4.1% (WPE-adjusted exit poll).   For 3% vote- switching, average adjusted state swing was 4.0%; average red-shift 1.5% (12:22am composite exit poll). Weighted average adjusted swing was 3.74%; weighted average red-shift, 1.41%. Adjusted swing exceeded red-shift in 32 states. Average adjusted swing was 2.58%; weighted average swing was 2.39%.  An adjusted swing vs. redshift  bar graph displays the deviations. Another scatter chart shows that adjusted swing exceeded 4% in 18 states while red-shift exceeded 4% in only 2 states. The naysayer swing vs. red-shift argument is just another ruse meant to divert, confuse and mislead.

 

Of the eight states which blue-shifted to Kerry, six were deep-red (exit poll discrepancies in parenthesis): TN (1.63), TX (1.65), SD (1.67), ND (2.51), KS (2.37) and MT (0.22).  The other two states were competitive: OR (.75), HI (1.25) also shifted to Kerry. All discrepancies fell within the state exit poll margin of error. Is it just a coincidence that these deep-red states deviated to Kerry? Could it have been because there was little incentive to steal votes in there?  And since Oregon is the only state with 100% paper ballots (mail), a small discrepancy is to be expected - and favor either Bush or Kerry with equal probability. And since Hawaii is a small state, was it also not a priority when compared to all the other vote-rich battleground /blue states?

 

The recorded 2000 vote was adjusted using three factors:

1) Third-party (primarily Nader) share of 2000 voters:

According to the National Exit Poll, Kerry won returning Nader 2000 voters by 71-21% over Bush. We need to revise the 2000 vote totals accordingly by allocating the Nader vote to Gore and Bush by the same proportion.

 

2) Uncounted votes:

According to the 2004 Election Census, there were 125.7mm total votes cast but only 122.3mm were recorded; 3.4mm (2.74%) were uncounted.  In 2000, there were 104.7mm votes recorded. Assuming the 2004 uncounted vote rate in 2000, 107.7mm total votes were cast and 3.0mm were uncounted. Since the majority of uncounted ballots are found in Democratic minority districts, a fair assumption is that 75% of the lost votes were for Gore. There were 180,000 spoiled ballots (under and over votes) in Florida.

 

3) Switched votes:

The True Vote Model base case scenario indicates that 7.6% of Kerry’s recorded vote (6.8% of total votes cast) was switched to Bush.  An exhaustive review of the ballots in Ohio's Cuyahoga County determined that 6.15% of Kerry’s votes were switched. For this analysis, the best case assumption is that 3.0% of Gore votes were switched.

 

The following is an analysis of the effects of uncounted and switched votes on the 2000 and 2004 elections. The results contradict the naysayer argument that no relationship exists between 2004 exit poll red-shift and vote swing from 2000 to 2004.

 
 
______________________________________________________________________________
 
 
Swing vs. Red Shift – Selected States                                                              
 
Assumptions:                                                         
Uncounted votes (percent of total votes cast)
2000: 3.00%                           
2004: 2.74%
Dem share: 75%
Switched: 
3.0% from Gore to Bush
 
Nader vote allocation:                                                              
Gore    71%                                                   
Bush    21%                                                   
Other    8%                                   
 
Definitions
Actual: recorded vote
Adjusted True Vote: Recorded vote + Nader + uncounted + switched votes

Adjusted Swing: Bush 2004 recorded vote share – Bush 2000 adjusted vote share

Red-shift: Bush 2004 recorded vote share – Bush 2004 Exit Poll share

All vote shares are 2-party percentages

 

Key Result (WPE adjusted exit poll)

Red-shift exceeded swing in 21 of the 31 states in which the Bush 2004 recorded vote share exceeded his 2000 vote share.

This refutes the naysayer Swing vs. Red-shift argument that there was no tendency for red-shift to exceed swing.

Red-shift exceeds swing in 39 states.

 
Composite Polls (12:22am)
 
         Swing R/S    Diff
National 1.51%  1.75%    0.26%
OH      -0.76   3.12     3.88
FL       2.52   2.45     -0.07
NY       3.81   4.68     0.87
PA       0.88   3.15     2.27
IA       0.49   1.01     0.52
NM       0.43   1.74     1.31
 
 
 
                2000                          2004                                                         
NATIONAL         Gore     Bush     Other    Kerry    Bush     Other
Actual          51004     50459    3275     59028    62040    1228
Other            2285     676      0        0        0        0
Uncounted        2354     785      0        2581     860      0
Switch           1529     -1529    0        4488     -4488    0
True             57173    50390    0        66097    58412    0
                                                                      
Actual          50.27%    49.73%            48.76%  51.24%   
True            53.15%    46.85%            53.09%  46.91%   
NEP Voted 2k                                51.93%  48.07%   
State Exit Poll                              50.51%  49.49%   
                                                                      
                   Swing                   Red-shift Diff   
Actual (state)    1.51%                     1.75%    0.26%
True (NEP)        4.39%                     4.33%   -0.06%
Difference        2.88%                     2.58%
Actual (NEP)                                3.17% 
 
______________________________________________________________________________
                                                                                                                    
 
OHIO             Gore     Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush     
Actual           2186     2351     144              2740     2859     
Other            102      30       0                0        0        
Uncounted        105      35       0                119      40       
Switch           66       -66      0                199      -199     
Adjusted         2459     2351     0                3058     2699     
                                                                      
Actual           48.18%   51.82%                    48.94%   51.06%   
True              51.13%  48.87%                    53.12%   46.88%   
Exit Poll                                           52.06%   47.94%   
                                                                      
                   Swing                           Red-shift Diff     
Actual            -0.76%                           3.12%     3.88%
True               2.19%                           4.18%     1.99%
Difference        2.95%                            1.06%
 
______________________________________________________________________________
                                                                      
 
FLORIDA          Gore     Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush     Other
Actual           2912     2912     2912             3584     3965     56
Other            82       24       0                0        0        0
Uncounted        134      45       0                161      54       0
Switch           87       -87      0                261      -261     0
True             3215     2893     2912             4005     3757     0
                                                                      
Actual           50.00%   50.00%                    47.48%   52.52%   
True              52.63%  47.37%                    51.60%   48.40%   
Exit Poll                                           49.93%   50.07%   
                                                                      
                 Swing                             Red-shift Diff     
Actual           2.52%                             2.45%     -0.07%
True             5.15%                              4.12%   -1.03%
Difference      2.63%                              1.67%
 
______________________________________________________________________________
                                                                      
 
NEW YORK          Gore    Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush     Other
Actual           4112     2405     278              4314     2963     112
Other            197      58       0                0        0        0
Uncounted        153      51       0                156      20       0
Switch           123      -123     0                314      -314     0
True              4586    2391     278              4784     2669     112
                                                                      
Actual           63.10%   36.90%                    59.29%   40.71%   
True             65.73%   34.27%                    64.19%   35.81%   
Exit Poll                                           63.97%   36.03%   
                                                                      
              Swing                                Red-shift Diff     
Actual          3.81%                              4.68%     0.87%
True            6.44%                              4.90%     -1.54%
Difference      2.63%                              0.22%
 
______________________________________________________________________________
                                                                      
 
PENNSYLVANIA     Gore     Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush     Other
Actual           2485     2281     120              2938     2794     34
Other            85       25       0                0        0        0
Uncounted        110      37       0                122      41       0
Switch           75       -75      0                214      -214     0
True              2755    2268     120              3274     2621     34
                                                                      
Actual          52.14%    47.86%                    51.26%   48.74%   
True           54.84%     45.16%                    55.54%   44.46%   
Exit Poll                                           54.41%   45.59%   
                                                                      
               Swing                               Red-shift Diff     
Actual          0.88%                               3.15%    2.27%
True           3.58%                                4.28%    0.70%
Difference     2.70%                                1.13%
 
______________________________________________________________________________
                 
 
IOWA             Gore     Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush     Other
Actual           638      634      37               742      752      11
Other            26       8        0                0        0        0
Uncounted        29       10       0                32       11       0
Switch           19       -19      0                54       -54      0
True              713     632      37               828      709      11
                                                                      
Actual           50.16%   49.84%                    49.66%   50.34%   
True             52.99%   47.01%                   53.88%   46.12%   
Exit Poll                                           50.67%   49.33%   
 
                 Swing                              Red-shift Diff    
Actual           0.49%                              1.01%   0.52%
True            3.33%                                4.22%   0.89%
Difference      2.84%                                3.21%
 
______________________________________________________________________________
                 
                                                                      
NEW MEXICO       Gore     Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush     Other
Actual           287      286      22               371      377      8
Other            16       5        0                0        0        0
Uncounted        13       4        0                16       5        0
Switch           9        -9       0                27       -27      0
True              324     287      22               414      355      8
                                                                      
Actual           50.03%   49.97%                    49.60%   50.40%   
True             53.07%   46.93%                    53.81%   46.19%   
Exit Poll                                           51.34%   48.66%   
                                                                      
                 Swing                              Red-shift Diff    
Actual           0.43%                              1.74%    1.31%
True             3.47%                             4.21%     0.74%
Difference      3.04%                              2.47%
               
______________________________________________________________________________
 
 
WPE-adjusted Polls
 
        Swing R/S Diff
National 1.51% 3.58% 3.07%
OH      -0.76 5.48 6.24
FL       3.49 3.83 0.34           
NY       3.81 5.79 1.98  
PA       0.88 4.43 3.55
IA       0.49 1.51 1.02  
NM       0.43 3.94 3.51  
 
 
Assumptions:     2000     2004  
Uncounted        4.86%    2.74%            
To Dem            75%     75%              
Switched           0%     7.6%             
 
Nader share allocated to                                                               
Gore     71.0%                                                        
Bush     21.0%                                                                 
Other    8.0%                                                                  
                                                                               
NATIONAL         Gore     Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush     Other    
Actual           51004    50459    3275             59028    62040    1228     
Other            2285     676      0                0        0        0        
Unctd            4009     1336     0                2581     860      0        
Switch              0     0        0                4492     -4492    0        
 
TrueVote         57298    52471    0                66101    58408    0        
Margin           4827                                7693                      
 
Actual          50.27%    49.73%                    48.76%   51.24%
TruePct         52.20%    47.80%                    53.09%   46.91%            
Exit Poll        -        -                        51.93%   48.07%            
State EP          -       -                        52.34%   47.66%            
                                                                               
                Swing                            Red-shift                     
Actual          1.51%                              3.58%
TrueVote        3.44%                              4.33%              
NEP             3.17%              
                                               
______________________________________________________________________________
                                                                               
OHIO             Gore     Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush              
Actual           2186     2351     144              2740     2859              
Other            102      30       0                0        0                 
Unctd            179      60       0                119      40                
Switch             0       0       0                209      -209              
TrueVote         2468     2441     0                3067     2690              
Margin            27                                 377                       
 
Actual         48.18%     51.82%                  48.94%     51.06%            
TruePct        50.27%     49.73%                  53.28%     46.72%            
Exit Poll                                         54.42%     45.58%            
                                                                               
                Swing                           Red-shift                      
Actual         -0.76%                              5.48%
TrueVote        1.33%                              4.34%              
                 
                                                                               
______________________________________________________________________________
                                                                               
FLORIDA         Gore      Bush     Nader            Kerry    Bush     Other    
Actual           2912     2912     115              3584     3965     56       
Other            82       24       9                0        0        0        
Unctd           228       76       0                161      54       0        
Switch           29       -29      0                247      -247     0        
TrueVote        3250      2983     9                3991     3771     56       
Margin           267                                 221                       
 
Actual         49.03%     49.03%   1.94%             47.48%  52.52%
TruePct        52.07%     47.78%   0.15%             51.42%  48.58%            
Exit Poll                                            51.31%  48.69%            
                                                                               
              Swing                                 Red-shift                          
Actual         3.49%                                 3.83%             
TrueVote       3.95%                                4.74%    
                                                                               
______________________________________________________________________________
                                                                               
NEW YORK          Gore    Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush     Other    
Actual           4112     2405     278              4314     2963     112      
Other            197      58       0                0        0        0        
Unctd            260      87       0                156      20       0        
Switch            0       0        0                328      -328     0        
TrueVote          4570    2550     278              4799     2655     112      
Margin           2020                               2144                      
 
Actual           63.10%   36.90%                   59.29%    40.71%
TruePct          64.18%   35.82%                   64.38%    35.62%
Exit Poll                                          65.08%    34.92%            
                                                                               
                                                                               
               Swing                              Red-shift           
Actual          3.81%                               5.79%    
TrueVote        5.09%                               4.89%                                                                                     
______________________________________________________________________________
                                                                      
PENN             Gore     Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush     Other
Actual           2485     2281     120              2938     2794     34
Other            85       25       0                0        0        0
Unctd            187      62       0                122      41       0
Switch            0       0        0                224      -224     0
TrueVote         2757     2369     120              3284     2611     34
Margin          389                                  673               
 
Actual         52.14%     47.86%                 51.26%     48.74%   
TruePct        53.79%     46.21%                 55.71%     44.29%   
Exit Poll                 -                      55.69%     44.31%   
                                                                      
                Swing                           Red-shift             
Actual           0.88%                           4.43%
TrueVote         2.53%                           4.45%       
         
                                                                      
______________________________________________________________________________
 
IOWA             Gore     Bush     Other            Kerry    Bush     Other
Actual            638     634      37               742      752      11
Other            26       8        0                0        0        0
Unctd            50       17       0                32       11       0
Switch             0      0        0                56       -56      0
TrueVote          714     658      37               830      706      11
Margin            56                                 124               
 
Actual         50.16%     49.84%                  49.66%    50.34%   
TruePct        52.04%     47.96%                  54.04%    45.96%   
Exi