| "If you are asked by elections officials what gives you the right to watch over the elections that grant all the legitimate power and money the government ever gets, and why a government official shouldn't be trusted to count secretly the processes that determine the government's own money and power, since you've got lots of things to do, just tell them: ‘Thomas Jefferson sent me.’ Remind them that... |
![]() |
You will have plenty of energy and time to do these tasks to protect freedom and democracy, if you just remind yourself of
what others have sacrificed so that you could enjoy democracy, and consider whether we have the right to allow democracy to literally disappear on our watch by our inaction. Then you'll be a sentinel of democracy, one of democracy's real defenders."
—Paul Lehto April 18, 2006 |
| our system of government is not based on trust; it's based on checks and balances. |
||
| The Rolling Stone article by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is just the latest step in realizing the truth about stolen election 2004. Just so everyone understands, here's how it all started. National Exit Polls are released periodically throughout election day showing Kerry winning (up through the final poll of the day at just after midnight). We were not supposed to see them but great lawyer, statistician, thinker Jonathan Simon captured the unintentionally released exit polls. He knew there were problems when the vote count contradicted the exit poll results. So did many of us as we reviewed Ohio and the rest of the voter disenfranchisement efforts across the nation. TruthIsAll TIA got a hold of the data and noticed something very wrong, outlining the case by Nov. 9, 2004. Simon and Alastair Thompson (althecat) wrote their article in “Scoop” Independent News, Nov. 17, 2004. The truth was out and TruthIsAll, Steve Freeman, Ron Baiman and the rest of the brave "math people" made the case on the exit polls while Bob Fitrakis, Ph.D., Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D., Cliff Arnebeck, and a host of wonderful activists all over America nailed down the rest of the evidence of voter suppression and disenfranchisement. Democratic Underground and its Elections Forum was absolutely central to the process... — autorank, TruthIsAll is Back...!!! |
| December 13, 2004 | December 13, 2005 | |
![]() |
Election Fraud 2004 |
"It was a powerful moment ...causing me to break down and cry ...because there was proof, before my very eyes, that these machines were every bit as bad as we all had feared." |
| Clint Curtis took a polygraph test on March 3rd, 2005...and passed! | Slide Presentation | The Harri Hursti Hack |
| June 1, 2006 | ||
![]() |
||
| "...evidence shows Ohio Sec. of State J. Kenneth Blackwell was 'certainly in on' the scheme, and there are indications that the effort went all the way up to the White House." |
| "And that's just the beginning of the story, which includes ballot-box stuffing, electronic voting machine manipulation, 'caging' in defiance of a court order banning Republicans from the notorious practice, threats and intimidation of Democratic voters by imported Republican goon squads, and multiple illegal uses of the office of the Secretary of State to disenfranchise Democratic voters." —Thom Hartmann |
06.02.06 Was the 2004 election stolen? No. —Farhad Manjoo (Salon.com)
06.03.06 A Semi-Comprehensive Quizzing of Manjoo's Rebuttal of RFK Jr. —Malcolm
06.03.06 The False-Fake Debate over RFK Jr's RS Article Started by Salon Ignores Democracy and What's Important —Paul Lehto
06.05.06(To scroll use scrollwheel or arrow keypad —if necessary, click empty window-area first to get focus) …
…easy to shift votes on punchcard machines due to the ballot rotation law in Ohio…
By the way, it is easy to shift votes on punchcard machines due to the ballot rotation law in Ohio. For instance, the hole to punch for Kerry would be “4” in one precinct and the hole to punch for Bush would be “4” in the next precinct. Public records reveal that in key southwest Ohio counties, ballots were counted at the county level, not the precinct level, to save money on counting machines. Thus, all one has to do is shift Kerry cards to a Bush tabulating machine to get a shift. There was more than enough time to do this, when votes came in during the wee hours of the morning. In fact, when we finally got to look at the ballots from four precincts in Warren County, we were surprised to discover that two pink “header” cards used to separate precinct ballots had holes punched for Bush.
It appears Manjoo knows very little about Ohio election law. As a licensed attorney in the state and involved in the practice of election law, I’m stunned by the obvious errors that Manjoo makes. The purges in Ohio were, in fact, deliberate, and they occurred in Democratic strongholds. Cuyahoga County records indicate 24.93% of all voters in Cleveland were purged between the 2000 and 2004 election. Census data indicates that most of the people who move in urban areas move within the county, which would make them still eligible to vote under Ohio law, and not be purged. What Manjoo leaves out is the standard practice by counties, which would have moved these individuals to “inactive” status before purging them. Additionally, numerous surveys as well as reports by the Toledo Blade and other newspapers reveal that many of these people had voted in local elections or had contacted their county board of elections, which under voting directives indicates activity. This activity would prevent them from being purged.
Yes, there was the deliberate purging in the Democratic strongholds indeed. The Toledo Blade reports 28,000 voters purged from the Democratic stronghold of Toledo in late August 2004. Perhaps Manjoo should make it a practice to do a Lexus Nexus search prior to attacking people for omitting data. The key here is that it is standard for counties to purge in odd-number years, 2001, 2003, etc. Manjoo also ignores the fact that 95.12% of all the provisional voters in Hamilton County came from the Democratic city of Cincinnati, where only 32% of the county’s voters resided. Less than 5% of the provisional ballots were handed out in the lily-white suburbs. Perhaps Manjoo has a hard time imagining a man of Karl Rove’s high standards targeting black and poor voters.
…
Salon.com gets it all wrong —Bob Fitrakis
06.05.06 Manjoo Critique in Salon is Superficial and Erroneous Nonsense —Ron Baiman
06.06.06(To scroll use scrollwheel or arrow keypad —if necessary, click empty window-area first to get focus)
…under Color of Law…
…
In another specious attack, Manjoo questions whether any of the more than 300,000 voters who were purged in advance of the 2004 election actually showed up at the polls. "It's impossible to know if those were even real people," he writes.
Farhad Manjoo, meet Barbara George. She was among the tens of thousands disenfranchised in this manner. "My God. We are sixty-six years old," she told the Toledo Blade at the time. "We registered when we first turned twenty-one. We have lived in this same house for forty-four years, and [now, because of the purge] I can't vote. It just seems ridiculous that you have to keep re-registering if you don't vote."
Mrs. George was among 28,000 voters who were purged from the voter rolls only a few months before the election in Lucas County. Why before and not after the election? That arbitrary decision was made by the Lucas County Board of Elections, a group so ethically challenged, the whole lot of them, Democrats and Republicans alike, were forced to resign following a state inquiry.
It is also arbitrary that the voter rolls were purged in some cities -- Toledo, Cleveland, Cincinnati -- but not others, notably Columbus. This disparate treatment raises serious equal-protection concerns under the Constitution. Indeed Ohio stands as a case study in how officials, acting under color of law, can deprive citizens of their constitutional rights.
…
Was the 2004 Election Stolen? - Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Farhad Manjoo face off —Robert F. Kennedy Jr. & Farhad Manjoo
06.06.06 Stand Up for Democracy With Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. —Thom Hartmann
06.07.06 More Manjoo Fallacies and Lack of Comprehension —Ron Baiman
06.12.06 Illegitimate Election —Steven F. Freeman (Response to criticism of his analysis of the 2004 election)
06.14.06 Kennedy’s Challenge: Salon, Mother Jones & the Tortured Dialogue On Election Fraud 2004 —Michael Collins
06.15.06 My Response To Manjoo's Salon Critique —Cliff Arnebeck
06.16.06 Some Might Call It Treason: An Open Letter to Salon —Mark Crispin Miller, posted on Huffington Post
06.30.06 The 2004 Election -- Kennedy report ignites controversy —Tim Dickinson, Rolling Stone- 07.22.06
(To scroll use scrollwheel or arrow keypad —if necessary, click empty window-area first to get focus)
Video: Ohio Ballots Speak - Bush Win Statistically Impossible PDF:
Direct Material Proof of Massive Election Fraud
in Ohio in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election[Clicking opens both a VIDEO and a PDF with resizable graphs and Mitofsky correspondence
Separate Links for Video and PDF also provided]September 30, 2006
Dr. Ron Baiman presents to an audience
graphic "Smoking Gun" evidence
of
MASSIVE ELECTION FRAUD in OHIO
using 2004 Edison-Mitofsky raw data sub-samples
from 49 representative-sample state precinctsOverview (PDF)
- “Virtually Irrefutable” Exit Poll Evidence of Vote Miscount
- A One in 187 Billion “Coincidence”?
- The 12 Rural County Remarkable “Series of Coincidences”
- Direct Material Proof of Election Fraud in Ohio
I. “Virtually Irrefutable” Exit Poll Evidence of Vote Miscount" (VIDEO)
- Graphic pattern of ESI Report data is what vote switching2 would look like (see graph):
Dense, Non-random error-distribution vs Random error-distribution [pg 4, graph]
- 22 of 49 representative-sample precincts (45%) show "statistically significant" discrepancy
between precinct exit poll shares and precinct official vote shares [±5% level]. [pg 6, 'Kerry WPD']
- TWENTY of the 22 significantly-discrepant precincts (91%) are "against KERRY" [neg %]
- TWO of the 22 significantly-discrepant precincts (9 %) are "against Bush" [pos %]
By 10 precincts-to-1 Compared To Bush:
precinct recorded VOTE-share reported for Kerry [per "count" of precinct "votes"]1,2,3
is SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN
precinct EXIT POLL-share reported for Kerry [per interview of same-precinct voters]
"OVERWHELMING Exit Poll Discrepancy Against Kerry"
- No "Uniform Bias": Adjusting for hypothetical response bias ["rBr"] by subtracting an optimal 18% factor does not remove/explain the discrepancy. [pg 7]
II. A One in 187 Billion “Coincidence”? (VIDEO)
- Two of the 49 representative-sample precincts' data differ by 9% and 6% from data presented in the "No smoking gun" ESI report (Mitofsky, asst-author) [pg 10 table, col 9, row 44/45]
- Odds of EP-discrepancy "due to chance" change from 1:5,500 to < 1:187,000,000,000 and
from 1:154 to 1:526,406 respectively (i.e. statistically impossible). [pg 17, pg 6]- Correspondence with Mitofsky yielded no satisfactory explanation [pg 11-16]
* * * * *
August 11, 2007
DESTROYED VOTES — by Jon Craig and Allison D'Aurora 3
- Boards of Elections in 56 of Ohio's 88 counties lost, shredded or
dumped nearly 1.6 million ballots and election records.- The lost records violate Ohio law, which states federal election records must be kept for 22 months after Election Day, and a U.S. District Court order issued last September that the 2004 ballots be preserved while the court hears a civil rights lawsuit alleging voter suppression of African-American voters in Columbus.
---------------------------------
1 Exit Polls … "Forced" … "Count" … Vote-Marks
2 RFK Jr … Salon.com Gets It All Wrong … Bob Fitrakis
3 FAQ+Analytics … Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ … PART I … ELECTION FRAUD ANALYSIS … Ohio
- Ballots were destroyed in 56 of 88 counties
- 2000-2004 Ohio Votes and Margins by County Voting Machine Type
DRE … OPTISCAN … PUNCH … "Inc" refers to voting machine incidents.
- Initial vs. Final Ohio Exit Poll ( TruthIsAll )
Using the original 12:22am Ohio exit poll weights for the following demographics, it would have been necessary to inflate the Bush vote shares to implausible levels to match the recorded vote. So the weights were changed in favor of Bush to minimize the change.
-First-time Voters: Of the 14% who were first-time voters, 55% were for Kerry. Are we to believe that he won just 47% of the other 86%?
-When Decided: Of the 21% who decided in the month prior to the election, 62% voted for Kerry. Are we to believe that he won just 45% of the 79% who decided earlier? Did Bush lead by 10% [ 55R - 45D ?] in any of the early polls?
-Party ID: The weights changed from 38D/35R to 35D/40R, a 7.9% shift. With the original weights, Bush needed 17% of Democrats to match the recorded vote. He had 8%.
-Ideology: Liberal/Conservative weights changed from 21/32 to 19/34, a 9.5% shift. With the original weights, Bush needed 23% of Liberals to match the recorded vote. He had 13%.
-Voted for Senate: Democratic/Republican weights changed from 43/57 to 36/64, a 16.3% shift. With the original weights, Bush needed 14% of those who voted for the Democratic candidate. He had 7%.
Direct Material Proof of Massive Election Fraud in Ohio in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election —Ron Baiman, Ph.D. —PDF only —VIDEO only
07.24.06 An Open Letter to Salon's Farhad Manjoo —TruthIsAll- 07.02.06 EXCLUSIVE DETAILS: RFK Jr., Florida Law Firm to File Federal Whistleblower Suits Against Two Voting Machine Companies! —BLOGGED By Brad on 7/2/2006
07.12.06 FIRST RFK JR. VOTING MACHINE WHISTLEBLOWER LAWSUIT NOW FILED IN FEDERAL COURT! NEW DETAILS! —BLOGGED By Brad on 7/13/2006
- 09.21.06 Will The Next Election Be Hacked? —Fresh disasters at the polls -- and new evidence from an industry insider -- prove that electronic voting machines can't be trusted — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Rolling Stone Magazine (Oct 5, 2006 issue)
| "The article...covers several new and sometimes explosive details of Diebold's rollouts in both Georgia and Maryland dating back to 2002, as well as Florida, Ohio and Texas in 2004."
From "EXCLUSIVE: New RFK Jr. Article On Diebold Says 'Electronic Voting Can't Be Trusted'" by Brad Friedman |
A: 2006 LANDSLIDE DENIED —Final Exit Poll "does NOT compute —again!"
11.07.06 Early returns on voting machines —Paul McNamara, Networld.com
11.10.06 The 2006 FINAL National Exit Poll does NOT compute — again! —"THE DEMOCRATS DID MUCH BETTER THAN THE FINAL EXIT POLL INDICATES! They always do." —TruthIsAll
11.14.06 THE MATH: Democratic Tsunami and GOP House Election Fraud —"The following analysis estimates the effects of vote switching in the 61 House GOP seats that were in play. It also determines which seats were the most likely candidates for fraud." —TruthIsAll
11.16.06 PRESS RELEASE: Major Miscount of Vote in 2006 Election —Reported Results Skewed Toward Republicans by 4 percent, 3 million votes —Election Defense Alliance Calls for InvestigationEXIT POLL DATA: 2006 Exit Poll Data Screenshot Captures
FULL REPORT: Landslide Denied : Exit Polls vs. Vote Count 2006 —Under-sampling of Democrats in the House Exit Poll and the Corruption of the Official Vote Count —Jonathan Simon, JD and Bruce O’Dell, Election Defense Alliance
| ...there was gross vote count manipulation and it had a great impact on the results of E2006, significantly decreasing the magnitude of
what would have been, accurately tabulated, a landslide of epic proportions ... |
11.20.06 1 in 76 BILLION: Odds of 5.1% Discrepancy in Dem House Vote vs. Generic Poll —TruthIsAll
11.29.06 Electionline.org gives midterms mixed grades; e-voting failures 'plentiful' —Paul McNamara, Networkworld.com
12.05.06 TGDC Resolution # 06-06...passed unanimously —TGDC, upon report prepared by the Security and Transparency Subcommitee of the TGDC in conjunction with NIST staff"The TGDC has considered current threats to voting systems and, at this time, finds that security concerns do not warrant replacing deployed voting systems where EAC Best Practices are used."12.07.06 Yet Another Stolen Election? —Unofficial Results In Seventeen Ohio Counties Cannot Be Right —Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.
| ABSTRACT: In the November 7, 2006 election in Ohio there were 350,669 more ballots cast than the number of votes counted for United States Senator. In 16 counties there were 268,987 uncounted votes, or 19.46% of ballots cast, compared to 82,957, or 2.99%, in 71 other counties. Cuyahoga County alone accounted for 148,958 uncounted votes, or 26.48% of ballots cast in the county, and 42.47% of the statewide total of uncounted ballots. In Marion County there were 1,275 more votes counted for United States Senator than the reported number of ballots cast, which is an impossibility. If the rate of uncounted ballots in the 17 suspect counties had been about 3%, as was the case elsewhere in the state, there would have been about 42,000 uncounted ballots instead of 269,000. This indicates that 227,000 votes may have been lost by the touch screen voting machines, which were utilized in all 17 of the suspect counties. |
12.08.06 Reconciling 2006 Discrepancies: Generic 120-Poll Trend vs 7:07pm and Final Exit Polls —TruthIsAll
| ...There is no longer any doubt that the poll/vote discrepancies are caused by miscounting votes. The proof is once again found in the 2006 Final National
Exit Poll which matched to the recorded vote count with the use of
fallacious weightings. As in 2004, the Democrats won the
"preliminary" 7:07pm NEP by a solid 55-43%. But the 1:00pm Final
cut the margin in half (52-46%). The 7:07pm NEP low-balled the Democratic vote share with the use of "How Voted in 2004" Bush/Kerry (47/45%) weights. The Final NEP (49/43%) weights are even more outrageous; they're a carbon copy of the mathematically impossible 2004 Final Bush/Gore (43/37%). This is the best evidence that once again the Final Exit Poll was forced to match a fraudulent miscount... |
01.01.07
(To scroll use scrollwheel or arrow keypad —if necessary, click empty window-area first to get focus)
1 DREs with problems were identified as one of these 11: Sequoia Advantage and Edge (all models); Diebold DREs
(all models); Hart InterCivic eSlate; Microvote Infinity and M464; ES&S iVotronic (all models); Unilect Patriot;
Danaher Shouptronic 1242; AVS WINVote; VTI VoteWare. No problems were reported for the Avante Vote-Trakker
(used in NY).
2 Precinct Scanners with problems were identified as one of these 6: Diebold AccuVote OS (all models); ES&S M-
100 and InkaVote; Optech 3P Eagle; HartInterCivic eScan and BallotNow; Sequoia Insight. Two types of central
count scanners malfunctioned: Optech 400C and ES&S 650.
3 EBMs with problems were AutoMARK (27 states), InkaVote (CA, MO). No problems were reported for the Populex
(NY and WI).…
Many polling places couldn’t open on time because of machine failures, and complex procedures often left pollworkers frustrated and reluctant to serve again. Election directors were often forced to rely on voting equipment vendors to set up the election, administer it, and tally the votes because it was too complicated for their personnel to handle. Others blamed themselves for not following the poorly documented, non-intuitive procedures required to collect and tally the votes.
After the polls closed, poll workers and election officials struggled with a myriad of reporting problems. Many couldn’t retrieve data from memory cards or couldn’t get the tally software to combine totals from different computerized systems, while others couldn’t figure out why the software was subtracting votes instead of adding them, or adding them two and three times instead of only once; couldn’t determine for sure whether the first set of results was correct, or the second set, or the third; couldn’t explain why one out of every six voters didn’t have an electronic vote recorded for a hotly contested race; or why the machines recorded more ballots than the number of voters who signed in to vote.
Often hidden from public view, equipment malfunctions such as these have normally been exposed only when they are severe enough to attract media coverage. Reports from Pollworkers for Democracy and voters provided additional insight into the extent of these problems. The frequency of reports of difficulties retrieving results even casts doubt on the accuracy of the certified results in affected areas, particularly since it is reasonable to assume that many such retrieval problems were never reported.
An increasing number of voters, poll workers, and election officials are finding the election process to be more difficult, not easier, and confidence in the final tallies has been undermined. While our source material is neither a complete list of problems nor even a representative sampling, the number of incidents and the broad range of problems reported is indicative of the widespread failure of electronic voting systems across the country and how this failure affected the experience of voters on November 7, 2006.
…E-Voting Failures in the 2006 Mid-Term Election —A sampling of problems across the nation — A report prepared by VotersUnite.Org, VoteTrustUSA, Voter Action, Pollworkers for Democracy
Forced to Match" the Recorded "

| 2004 Exit Polls background, from excerpts of "An Open Letter to Salon's Farhad Manjoo" by TruthIsAll : | |||||||||
Many voters went to sleep on election day assuming Kerry won. Jonathan Simon stayed up long enough to spot and download the
12:22am state exit polls. Luckily for us, The Washington Post chose not to delete the corresponding
National Exit Poll (
13047 respondents at 12:22am) which showed Kerry the 51-48% winner.
We also have the earlier NEP timelines
at 4pm (
8349 respondents)
and 7:30pm (
11027 respondents) which established the 51-48% Kerry trend. He held the lead until the
Final National Exit Poll (
13660 respondents), when the numbers magically reverted to a 51-48% Bush win. The numbers (weights and vote shares) were revised to match the vote.
According to the
Final National Exit poll, 43% of the 122.3 million who voted in 2004 were Bush 2000 voters and 37% were Gore voters. These weightings in and of themselves debunk rBr. Now 43% of 122.3 is 52.57 million. And since Bush only got
50.5mm votes in 2000, of whom about 1.75mm died, only 48.7mm (39.8%) could have returned to vote in 2004, so the 43% Final NEP weighting was mathematically impossible. The Bush vote was inflated by 4 million . I have just shown that the Final Poll at 1:25pm on Nov 3 is bogus, and that the earlier 12:22am numbers are close to the truth.
Here's proof that the Final NEP weights are impossible. Here's the National Exit Poll Timeline. Notice the smooth trend in the first three timelines (4pm, 7:38pm, 12:22am). Compare it to the discontinuous Bush jump in ALL the demographic weights and/or vote shares in the Final NEP. ... 11.02.04 3:59pm 8349 respondents: Kerry 51 - Bush 48
11.02.04 7:33pm 11027 respondents: Kerry 51 - Bush 48
11.03.04 12:22am ![]() ![]() 13047 respondents: Kerry 51 - Bush 48
11.03.04 1:25pm ![]() 13660 respondents: Kerry 48 - Bush 51
| |||||||||
- 11.04.04 To believe that Bush won the election, you must also believe...—Part I—TruthIsAll
11.15.04 To believe that Bush won the election, you must also believe...—Part II—TruthIsAll
12.28.04 To believe that Bush won the election, you must also believe...—Part IIIb, IIIa, III—TruthIsAll
03.23.05 To believe that Bush won the election, you must also believe...—Part IV—TruthIsAll- 11.04.04 Kerry Won —Greg Palast
- 11.04.04 Faun Otter: Vote Fraud - Exit Polls Vs Actuals —Alastair Thompson, “Scoop” Co-Editor
- 11.04.04 The Ultimate Felony Against Democracy —Thom Hartmann
- 11.05.04 Report Says Problems Led to Skewed Surveying Data —Jim Rutenberg, NYT
- 11.05.04 Footprints of Electoral Fraud: The November 2 Exit Poll Scam —Michael Keefer, Centre for Research on Globalisation
- 11.06.04 Evidence Mounts That The Vote May Have Been Hacked —Thom Hartmann
- 11.09.04 For DUers who wanted a summary of my posts... —TruthIsAll
- 11.10.04 Mathematical proof that TV network polling results are FRAUDULENT —Petrodollar Warfare
- 11.11.04 47 State Exit Poll Analysis Confirms Swing Anomaly —Jonathan Simon —Introduction by “Scoop” Co-Editor Alastair Thompson
- 11.12.04
But then, in key state after key state, counts showed very different numbers than the polls predicted; and the differentials were all in the same direction. The first shaded column in Table 1.1 shows the differential between the major candidates’ predicted (exit poll) percentages of the vote; the next shaded column shows the differential between their tallied percentages of the vote. The final shaded column reveals the “shift.” In ten of the eleven consensus battleground states,5 the tallied margin [recorded vote count] differs from the predicted margin [unadjusted exit polls], and in every one, the shift favors Bush.
The media have largely ignored this discrepancy (although the blogosphere has been abuzz), suggesting either that the polls were flawed, or that the differential was within normal sampling error, a statistical anomaly, or could otherwise be easily explained away. In this report, I examine the validity of exit poll data, sampling error, the likelihood of statistical anomaly, and other explanations thus far offered to explain this discrepancy.
…(To scroll use scrollwheel or arrow keypad —if necessary, click empty window-area first to get focus) The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy Steven F. Freeman1
Most Americans who listened to radio or surfed the internet on election day this
year sat down to watch the evening television coverage thinking John Kerry won
the election. Exit polls showed him ahead in nearly every battleground state, in
many cases by sizable margins. Although preelection day polls indicated the race
dead even or Bush slightly ahead, two factors seemed to explain Kerry’s edge:
turnout was very high, good news for Democrats,3 and, as in every US
presidential election with an incumbent over the past quarter-century, undecided
voters broke heavily toward the challenger.4 The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy —Steven F Freeman, Ph.D. (Dec 29, 2004)
| A random sample of a population can be modeled as a normal distribution curve. Exit polls,
however, are not random samples. To avoid prohibitive expense, exit poll samples are clustered,
which means that precincts, rather than individuals, are randomly selected. This increases
variance and thus the margin of error because of the possibility that precinct voters share similar
characteristics which distinguish them from the rest of the state in ways that past voting behavior
would not predict. An analysis of the 1996 exit polls estimated that the cluster sample design adds
“a 30 percent increase in the sampling error computed under the assumption of simple random
sampling” (Merkle and Edelman, 2000, p. 72).
... Figure 1.2 depicts the resulting distribution curve for samples of 1,963 randomly selected respondents from approximately 40 randomly selected precincts in Ohio, a state in which 48.5% of the vote went for Kerry...It turns out that the likelihood that Kerry would poll 52.1% from a population in which he receives only 48.5% of the vote is less than one-in-one-hundred (.0073). Conducting the same analysis for Florida...the chances that he would poll 49.7% out of 2,846 respondents in an exit poll with no systematic error is less than two-in-one-hundred (.0164). In the third critical battleground state, Pennsylvania...the likelihood that an exit poll would predict 54.1%, given 50.8% support of the electorate is just slightly more than one-in-one-hundred (.0126). Assuming independent state polls with no systematic bias, the odds against any two of these statistical anomalies occurring together are more than 5,000:1 (five times more improbable than ten straight heads from a fair coin). The odds against all three occurring together are 662,000-to-one. As much as we can say in social science that something is impossible, it is impossible that the discrepancies between predicted and actual vote counts in the three critical battleground states of the 2004 election could have been due to chance or random error. |
- 11.17.04 Complete US Exit Poll Data Confirms Net Suspicions — Full 51 State Early Exit Poll Data Released For The First Time —Alastair Thompson, “Scoop” Co-Editor
- 11.19.04 Working Paper: The Effect of Electronic Voting Machines on Change in Support for Bush in the 2004 Florida Elections —Michael Hout, Laura Mangels, Jennifer Carlson, Rachel Best —With the assistance of the UC Berkeley Quantitative Methods Research Team
- 11.20.04 How the Grinch stole the White House … again —Alan Waldman, Online Journal contributing writer
- 12.05.04 Evidence of Fraud in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election: A Reader —Michael Keefer, Centre for Research on Globalisation
- 12.06.04 Whistleblower Affidavit: Programmer Built Vote Rigging Prototype at Republican Congressman's Request! —Exclusive: BLOGGED By Brad ON 12/6/2004
- 12.13.04 Clint Curtis Testifies —claims Tom Feeney (former Jeb Bush running mate/now-Congressman, R-FL) hired him to prepare vote-rigging software —Video of testimony, December 13th, 2004 Congressional hearing in Columbus, Ohio
UPDATES: Curtis/Feeney FL-24 Congressional Seat Challenge —The BradBlog
- 12.15.04 Proof of Ohio Election Fraud Exposed —includes affidavit of Sherole Eaton, Hocking County, OH, deputy director of elections—William Rivers Pitt, Truthout
- 12.19.04 EXIT POLLS: THE LATEST MYSTERY POLLSTER BLOG - AND MY COMMENTS —TruthIsAll
- 12.19.04 A "GLITCH". IT'S ALWAYS A "GLITCH" WHICH FAVORS THE REPUBS. A "GLITCH" —TruthIsAll
- 12.22.04 TV Networks Officially Refuse to Release Exit Poll Raw Data —Gary Beckwith, The Columbus Free Press
- 12.24.04 Kerry votes switched to Bush and ballots pre-punched for Bush —Dr. Werner Lange
| Pre-punched ballots; touch-screen vote switching; more absentee votes than absentee voters; unfair provisional voter deletions; change of voting sites on Election Day; voter suppression; voter intimidation; double voting; malfunctioning machines; recalibrated machines; evidently rigged machines; and even 25 million negative votes registered in some races in Mahoning County [Ohio]!
Those were among the problematic incidents shared at a 3-hour public hearing on vote irregularities in the Mahoning Valley held on December 21 at the Warren-Trumbull Public Library... ... Finally, note was taken at the hearing of the curious fact that exit polls showed Kerry with a 4.2% lead over Bush in Ohio, but the vote results gave Bush an alleged 2.5% victory over Kerry, a 6.7% final vote tally percentage shift toward Bush. The chances of this enormous shift being legitimate and the exit polls so wrong are infinitesimal. Another explanation is much more likely, plausible and real. It was clearly expressed well before this rigged election by the CEO of Diebold, Walden O'Dell , brother of the top executive at ES&S: “I am committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral vote to the President next year” . That sentiment and intent were undoubtedly shared again on Election Day itself with President Bush personally by key Ohio election officials, including the co-chair of the Bush-Cheney campaign in Ohio who doubles as Ohio’s Secretary of State, when Bush came to his state headquarters on High Street in Columbus, site of what may be the crime of the century. It is unlikely that anyone there on that crucial day invoked the spirit of Joseph Stalin who is reputed to have said “those who vote determine nothing; those who count the vote determine everything” . But whether explicitly invoked or not, that anti-democratic spirit was clearly invited to Ohio. |
- 12.28.04 The 2004 Presidential Election: Who Won The Popular Vote? —An Examination of the Comparative Validity of Exit Poll and Vote Count Data —Jonathan D. Simon, JD and Ron P. Baiman, Ph.D.
- 01.05.05 Preserving Democracy: What Went Wrong in Ohio —Executive Summary —Full Report —Status Report, House Judiciary Comm Democratic Staff, Rep. John Conyers, Ranking
- 01.24.05 The Strange Death of American Democracy: Endgame Ohio —Michael Keefer, Centre for Research on Globalisation
E/M Non-Response Bias Hypothesis-Testing ("rBr" Debunked)
- 01.28.05
Summary
The Edison/Mitofsky report confirms there were large differences between their exit polls and the official results
of the 2004 presidential election — much more so than in previous elections (p 31). The [unadjusted] national exit poll
indicated a 3 point victory for Kerry; whereas the ['forced'] official election results indicated that he lost by 2.5%,
a difference of 5.5%. [ed: see Exit Polls ]
The Edison/Mitofsky report fails to substantiate their hypothesis that the difference between their exit polls and official
election results should be explained by problems with the exit polls. They assert without supporting evidence that (p 4),
“Kerry voters were more likely to participate in the exit polls than Bush voters.” In fact, data included within
the report suggest that the opposite might be true.
Their analysis of the potential correlation of exit poll errors with voting machine type is incomplete and inadequate,
and their report ignores the alternative hypothesis that the official election results could have been corrupted.
…
We invite all those who care about democratic processes in this country to join us in fully investigating and explaining what
really happened in the 2004 Presidential election.
Study of the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Poll Discrepancies —Response to Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004 Report — USCountVotes.org, contributors & supporters: Josh Mitteldorf, Ph.D.; Kathy Dopp, MS, USCV-President; Steven F. Freeman, Ph.D.; Brian Joiner, Ph.D.; Frank Stenger, Ph.D.; Richard G. Sheehan, Ph.D.; Paul F. Velleman, Ph.D.; Victoria Lovegren, Ph.D.; Campbell B. Read, Ph.D.; Peer Reviewers
02.12.05 BLOWN TO SMITHEREENS: Mitofsky's "Reluctant Bush Responder" Theory —TruthIsAll
05.21.05 Patterns of Exit Poll Discrepancies - Working Paper —USCountVotes.org - National Election Data Archive
07.05.05 It's a shutout: FRAUD 3 , rBr 0 —TruthIsAll
07.09.05 EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER: KEY RESULTS —TruthIsAll
10.16.05 CLINCHER III: EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER: KEY RESULTS —TruthIsAll"This analysis confirms the USCV simulation...Bye, bye rBr: ..."
07.29.05 Response Optimizer analysis of State Exit Polls [DU post & comments] —[PI post & comments] —TruthIsAll
09.08.05 The 2004 Presidential Election: Exit Poll Error or Vote Miscount? —USCountVotes.org - National Election Data Archive
08.13.06 Exit poll non-responders: the income factor means it's rKr, not rBr... —TruthIsAll
- 02.15.05 A Corrupted Election —Despite what you may have heard, the exit polls were right —Steve Freeman & Josh Mitteldorf
| Corollary evidence The exit polls themselves are a strong indicator of a corrupted election. Moreover, the exit poll discrepancy must be interpreted in the context of more than 100,000 officially logged reports of irregularities during Election Day 2004. For many Americans, if not most, mass-scale fraud in a U.S. presidential election is an unthinkable possibility. But taken together, the allegations, the subsequently documented irregularities, systematic vulnerabilities, and implausible numbers suggest a coherent story of fraud and deceit. What’s more, the exit poll disparity doesn’t tell the whole story. It doesn’t count those voters who were disenfranchised before they even got to the polls. The Two videos, non-autoplay, will popup: Video the Vote: Columbus, OH (23 mins) No Umbrella movie trailer (3 min) voting machine shortages in Democratic districts, the fraudulent felony purges of voter rolls, the barriers to registration, and the unmailed, lost, or cavalierly rejected absentee ballots all represent distortions to the vot |